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The BPC, whose initial analysis of the US default has become the staple “go-to” analysis for Treasury cash obligations and key events in the days surrounding and following the X-Date, has released a new update on when the US runs out of money. The latest: October 22 – November 1. Which means that if it so desires, the GOP can and probably will delay a debt ceiling bargain until the last possible moment which may well be, appropriately enough, Halloween. In the meantime, the US Treasury now has about $40 billion in total cash on hand and available extraordinary measures and declining fast.
The latest complete note:
As BPC’s X Date Window Narrows, Economic Risks Grow
- BPC’s Updated X Date Range: October 22 – November 1
- Major Debt Rollovers: October 17 – $120 billion; October 24 – $93 billion
- Major Payments Due During X-Date Range: $12 billion in Social Security benefits on October 23; $6 billion in interest on the public debt on October 31; over $55 billion in major payments on November 1
- Likely Impact of Shutdown on X-Date Range: If resolved shortly – negligible; if prolonged – a couple days
Updated data on Treasury cash flows through the first week of October show that the range for the Bipartisan Policy Center’s (BPC) X Date – the date on which the United States will be unable to meet all of its financial obligations in full and on time – has narrowed to between October 22 and November 1. The updated range is consistent with BPC’s earlier estimate….
- Debt Ceiling Dates, Explained (blogs.wsj.com)
- Key Treasury Cash Payments And Transactions After The X-Date (zerohedge.com)
- Group: U.S. Faces Debt Deadline Between Oct. 18 and Nov. 5 (blogs.wsj.com)