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How to Keep Warm – Wildwood Survival

How to Keep Warm – Wildwood Survival.

How to Keep Warm

by Walter Muma

Here are some tips on keeping warm.
While sleeping (trying to sleep):

  • Put a warm hat on – your head loses a lot of heat.
  • Use your coat as another warm layer on top of your sleeping bag.
  • Are your socks dry? If damp, they might be chilling your feet. Put on clean and dry socks.
  • Add layers – put on clothing – clean and dry clothes are best.
  • Drink something hot or warm.
  • Wake up.
  • Eat something – just a snack.
  • Go for a pee – your body is using energy to keep that extra liquid warm.
  • Get up and build a fire to get warm. Then go back to bed.
  • Tense and relax muscles for a while – the passive equivalent of getting some exercise.
  • Use a hi-tech solution – instant hand and feet warmers – those little packets that you squeeze and get warm.
  • Make sure you are well enough insulated underneath.
  • If you are in a primitive shelter, ensure no breeze is getting in, and that you are not exposed to the sky.
  • Cozy up with a partner. If you are getting seriously cold, this is the most effective way to get warm, and it is no time to be shy or reluctant.
To get or keep warm while out and about:

  • Stay out of the wind. Seek out a sheltered spot.
  • Wear a warm hat
  • Build a fire – remember that in the winter, in most places, you can always stop and make a fire (provided you have the means to do so!).
  • Drink something hot.
  • Go for a pee – your body is heating that extra water for no reason.
  • Be comfortable – being uncomfortable can make you colder by being mentally stressed.
  • Be mentally prepared to be a little bit cooler than your ideal of being “nice and warm”.
  • Stay active, but don’t sweat.
  • Use a hi-tech solution – instant hand and feet warmers – those little packets that you squeeze and they get warm.
  • Eat something, more like a snack.
  • Put on more clothing.
  • If your feet are damp, put on clean dry socks, and wear dry boots.
  • Eat fatty foods.
  • If the sun is out, tilt your face towards the sun – you can absorb a lot of heat this way.
  • Sit close beside another person.

How the Paper Money Experiment Will End – Philipp Bagus – Mises Daily

How the Paper Money Experiment Will End – Philipp Bagus – Mises Daily.

A paper currency system contains the seeds of its own destruction. The temptation for the monopolist money producer to increase the money supply is almost irresistible. In such a system with a constantly increasing money supply and, as a consequence, constantly increasing prices, it does not make much sense to save in cash to purchase assets later. A better strategy, given this senario, is to go into debt to purchase assets and pay back the debts later with a devalued currency. Moreover, it makes sense to purchase assets that can later be pledged as collateral to obtain further bank loans. A paper money system leads to excessive debt.

This is especially true of players that can expect that they will be bailed out with newly produced money such as big businesses, banks, and the government.

We are now in a situation that looks like a dead end for the paper money system. After the last cycle, governments have bailed out malinvestments in the private sector and boosted their public welfare spending. Deficits and debts skyrocketed. Central banks printed money to buy public debts (or accept them as collateral in loans to the banking system) in unprecedented amounts. Interest rates were cut close to zero. Deficits remain large. No substantial real growth is in sight. At the same time banking systems and other financial players sit on large piles of public debt. A public default would immediately trigger the bankruptcy of the banking sector. Raising interest rates to more realistic levels or selling the assets purchased by the central bank would put into jeopardy the solvency of the banking sector, highly indebted companies, and the government. It looks like even the slowing down of money printing (now called “QE tapering”) could trigger a bankruptcy spiral. A drastic reduction of government spending and deficits does not seem very likely either, given the incentives for politicians in democracies.

So will money printing be a constant with interest rates close to zero until people lose their confidence in the paper currencies? Can the paper money system be maintained or will we necessarily get a hyperinflation sooner or later?

There are at least seven possibilities:

1. Inflate. Governments and central banks can simply proceed on the path of inflation and print all the money necessary to bail out the banking system, governments, and other over-indebted agents. This will further increase moral hazard. This option ultimately leads into hyperinflation, thereby eradicating debts. Debtors profit, savers lose. The paper wealth that people have saved over their life time will not be able to assure such a high standard of living as envisioned.

2. Default on Entitlements. Governments can improve their financial positions by simply not fulfilling their promises. Governments may, for instance, drastically cut public pensions, social security and unemployment benefits to eliminate deficits and pay down accumulated debts. Many entitlements, that people have planned upon, will prove to be worthless.

3. Repudiate Debt. Governments can also default outright on their debts. This leads to losses for banks and insurance companies that have invested the savings of their clients in government bonds. The people see the value of their mutual funds, investment funds, and insurance plummet thereby revealing the already-occurred losses. The default of the government could lead to the collapse of the banking system. The bankruptcy spiral of overindebted agents would be an economic Armageddon. Therefore, politicians until now have done everything to prevent this option from happening.

4. Financial Repression. Another way to get out of the debt trap is financial repression. Financial repression is a way of channeling more funds to the government thereby facilitating public debt liquidation. Financial repression may consist of legislation making investment alternatives less attractive or more directly in regulation inducing investors to buy government bonds. Together with real growth and spending cuts, financial repression may work to actually reduce government debt loads.

5. Pay Off Debt. The problem of overindebtedness can also be solved through fiscal measures. The idea is to eliminate debts of governments and recapitalize banks through taxation. By reducing overindebtedness, the need for the central bank to keep interest low and to continue printing money is alleviated. The currency could be put on a sounder base again. To achieve this purpose, the government expropriates wealth on a massive scale to pay back government debts. The government simply increases existing tax rates or may employ one-time confiscatory expropriations of wealth. It uses these receipts to pay down its debts and recapitalize banks. Indeed the IMF has recently proposed a one-time 10-percent wealth tax in Europe in order to reduce the high levels of public debts. Large scale cuts in spending could also be employed to pay off debts. After WWII, the US managed to reduce its debt-to-GDP ratio from 130 percent in 1946 to 80 percent in 1952. However, it seems unlikely that such a debt reduction through spending cuts could work again. This time the US does not stand at the end of a successful war. Government spending was cut in half from $118 billion in 1945 to $58 billion in 1947, mostly through cuts in military spending. Similar spending cuts today do not seem likely without leading to massive political resistance and bankruptcies of overindebted agents depending on government spending.

6. Currency Reform. There is the option of a full-fledged currency reform including a (partial) default on government debt. This option is also very attractive if one wants to eliminate overindebtedness without engaging in a strong price inflation. It is like pressing the reset button and continuing with a paper money regime. Such a reform worked in Germany after the WWII (after the last war financial repression was not an option) when the old paper money, the Reichsmark, was substituted by a new paper money, the Deutsche Mark. In this case, savers who hold large amounts of the old currency are heavily expropriated, but debt loads for many people will decline.

7. Bail-in. There could be a bail-in amounting to a half-way currency reform. In a bail-in, such as occurred in Cyprus, bank creditors (savers) are converted into bank shareholders. Bank debts decrease and equity increases. The money supply is reduced. A bail-in recapitalizes the banking system, and eliminates bad debts at the same time. Equity may increase so much, that a partial default on government bonds would not threaten the stability of the banking system. Savers will suffer losses. For instance, people that invested in life insurances that in turn bought bank liabilities or government bonds will assume losses. As a result the overindebtedness of banks and governments is reduced.

Any of the seven options, or combinations of two or more options, may lie ahead. In any case they will reveal the losses incurred in and end the wealth illusion. Basically, taxpayers, savers, or currency users are exploited to reduce debts and put the currency on a more stable basis. A one-time wealth tax, a currency reform or a bail-in are not very popular policy options as they make losses brutally apparent at once. The first option of inflation is much more popular with governments as it hides the costs of the bail out of overindebted agents. However, there is the danger that the inflation at some point gets out of control. And the monopolist money producer does not want to spoil his privilege by a monetary meltdown. Before it gets to the point of a runaway inflation, governments will increasingly ponder the other options as these alternatives could enable a reset of the system.

Note: The views expressed in Daily Articles on Mises.org are not necessarily those of the Mises Institute.

Comment on this article. When commenting, please post a concise, civil, and informative comment.
Philipp Bagus is an associate professor at Universidad Rey Juan Carlos. He is an associate scholar of the Ludwig von Mises Institute and was awarded the 2011 O.P. Alford III Prize in Libertarian Scholarship. He is the author of The Tragedy of the Euro and coauthor of Deep Freeze: Iceland’s Economic CollapseThe Tragedy of the Euro has so far been translated and published in GermanFrenchSlovakPolishItalianRomanianFinnishSpanishPortugueseBritish EnglishDutchBrazilian PortugueseBulgarian, and Chinese. See his website. Send him mail. Follow him on Twitter @PhilippBagus See Philipp Bagus’s article archives.

 

Getting Ready for the Big One: February 2014 | ToTheTick™ToTheTick™

Getting Ready for the Big One: February 2014 | ToTheTick™ToTheTick™.

Getting ready for Christmas? What’s Santa got in his sack for you this year? Well, if there’s one thing you should be preparing for, then it can only be the big crash of February 2014. The signs have been there for months now and it’s definitely now on the books for February next year. Santa will be emptying his sack and it won’t be presents that will be falling from the sky as his sleigh goes whizzing past us.

Preordained Events

Stick the date in your diary, pop it on your iPad and synch it with your iPhone. Use them while you can, because they will be relics of the past most undoubtedly in the coming months. You won’t be needing anything in the future, once the financial world implodes and it is set to happen in February 2014.

If we were in 1929, this would be June 1929, just a few months before the crash happened back then. Yes, we can say whatever we like with numbers, but like cameras, there are some calculations that never seem to lie. Businesssweek’sTom DeMark, a financial analyst has put together indicators that are able to predict movements of the market with surprising accuracy. DeMark states that “the market’s going to have one more rally, then once we get above that high, I think it’s going to be treacherous. I think it’s all preordained right now”.

Some might be saying that we didn’t need a crystal ball and we had no need for mathematics either to show that. You just had to look at how the Federal Reserve has bounced the financial markets back into a false-sense of security without actually doing anything at all to change the economy. Where’s the employment, where’s the increase in industry? It’s in the past. The only thing that is there right now is the virtual prosperity of the financiers and the banks. The next US shutdown and arrival at the debt ceiling will be just in time too for the biggest crash in history and will probably be linked.

Cash in on the last rise of the financial markets before what has been set down long ago comes of age and ripens completely. After that, who knows! You’ll have to buy low and wait a long time before the markets move back up.

The chart that compares pre-1929 and today is uncannily identical. Take a look for yourself. Pooh-pooh it, refuse to see it, do whatever you wish, but the crash will be coming and it’s the banks that started it all. The government will finish it all. God bless America! Game over! Goodnight!

DeMark's Market Predictions

It’s something when you end up witnessing the downfall of your own country. Some have been predicting it for years now and have been shouted down. They will be consoled by ‘I-told-you-so’ vociferating. But, it’s doubtless if that will help them anymore than anyone else.

The number of companies that is pushing the stock markets higher is narrowing at an alarming rate and there are a handful today that are taking the markets higher. That handful will gradually reduce and collapse. The eggs that were put into one basket by Ben Bernanke will end up being splattered on Janet Yellen’s face as she takes over. She should get out now while she can! The few companies that are dragging the financial market up by the collar are distorting the perception of the rest of the companies there and so speculation is becoming greater and greater.

January will see the bull rush on the financial markets for the last time. Then things will fall dramatically. You’ve been warned.

Yet again, those that believe they know will turn their noses up and say it’s never going to happen. Granted, the markets are unpredictable. But, there is one thing we all have to agree on, they are buoyant on nothing right now. They are increasing without any reason to do so. That won’t last at all.

January is named after the ancient Roman mythological God Janus. He’s the god of beginnings and transitions, changes and endings or new beginnings. This year Janus, the gateway god, will be looking back into the past to 1929, stopping off on the way at the financial crisis of 2007/2008. But, he isn’t two-faced for nothing.

He’ll be looking into the future and pin-pointing February as the time you’ll need to take cover. Forget the financial crisis of yesteryear or yester-century. This one will be the biggest, the best, the most of everything you could imagine.

The Americans always did excel in verbose language and hyperbole. They always did excel at showing the world that they were the top of the roost and the best at whatever they did. As the last beats of Auld Lange Syne play out, ringing in your ears, the Americans will be surely remembered as those that started it all. Well done the Federal Reserve; well done the successive governments.

Above all, well done the banksters, the gangsters of the financial world. Let’s remember the old acquaintances… Shid ald akwentans bee firgot, an nivir brocht ti mynd?

 

Avoiding the Bubble in Stocks & Bonds: The Wisdom of Looking Like an Idiot Today | Peak Prosperity

Avoiding the Bubble in Stocks & Bonds: The Wisdom of Looking Like an Idiot Today | Peak Prosperity.

If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;

~ Opening stanza to Rudyard Kipling’s “If”

So, let’s say you’re a prudent person who has concerns that our economy isn’t ‘recovering’ as robustly as you’d like.

Perhaps you still remember the speed and depth of the 2008 credit crisis’ arrival, and its toxic impact on asset prices, jobs, and overall trust in the financial system. Maybe you took notes during the preceding tech and housing bubbles and their aftermath. If so, you likely swore that “Never again!” would you put your wealth at risk during such obvious times of public mania.

Chances are, you’ve probably logged a lot of online hours over the past several years trying to read the economic tea leaves more closely. Are things becoming more stable, or less? What are “safer” measures for protecting and building wealth than simply putting all your chips into the paper markets (stocks & bonds) and real estate?

As a result, you’ve probably had a smaller percentage of your wealth in the stock/bond markets over the past few years than your peers. You probably also own some gold and silver, likely having bought much of it between 2009-2011 with the stock market collapse still fresh in your memory. Chances are also good that you’ve made a series of “preparedness” investments (stored food, etc.) as an insurance policy in case really tough times were to break out. Most of your family and friends didn’t take these steps, nor are they particularly interested in talking about your reasons for taking them.

So, if this sounds at all like you, five years after the 2008 crisis, how is the “prudent” strategy looking today?

Looking Like an Idiot

As one who took similar steps, I’ll confirm that it looks pretty lousy to the casual observer.

Stocks & Bonds

There has been an absolute party in the stock market over the past two years. The S&P is up nearly 40% (!) since early 2012 and has almost tripled since its 2009 lows. It’s been nearly impossible not to make money in the stock market recently (unless you’ve owned mining shares).

Bonds have remained at historically elevated prices. And although 2013 has seen prices come off slightly from their highs, prices are still substantially above pre-crisis levels.

The pumped-up performance of paper assets here is, of course, due to the staggering amounts of new money that the Fed has been creating since 2008. Starting with a balance sheet of $880 billion pre-crisis, the Fed has since expanded it by an additional $3 trillion, in less than 5 years. And it’s continuing to expand to the tune of $85 billion (some calculate $100 billion) per month.

Most of that money sits in excess reserves enriching the banks at zero risk, at high hidden cost to the public (a rant for another day). But enough of it is sloshing over into the markets where it does exactly what excess liquidity always does: rise all boats.

So, if you decided to stay out of the markets, you’ve watched the party boat pass you by. They say don’t fight the Fed, and so far, the Fed is indeed winning. In reality, it will likely prove to be the Charlie Sheen version of “winning”, but to the casual observer whose 401k is up 20% this year, the Fed definitely appears to be playing the better hand.

Real Estate

How soon we forget. Home prices have resumed climbing at historically aberrant rates. Case-Shiller just reported that year-over-year, its national home price index grew by 11.2%.

A number of markets have re-entered bubble territory. San Francisco, where prices are now higher than at their 2007 peak, saw a 26% year-over-year increase in average prices. Las Vegas, the poster child for housing price excesses six years ago, saw a 29% average price increase from 2012 to 2013.

The tell-tale sign of an overheated housing market – house flipping – is back.

If you’ve been holding off on purchasing real estate (as I have) – expecting that a stumble back into recession, or higher interest rates, could bring prices down to saner baselines – again, you’re watching prices get away from you.

Precious Metals

Ugh. There’s no denying that it has been a very rough two years for gold and silver holders. As I’m writing this, gold and silver are dropping to near 4-year lows.

For those burned by the last crisis who purchased precious metals near their zenith in 2011, hoping to protect the purchasing power of their capital, the nauseating declines since early 2012 (especially in silver) have done anything but.

Those who bought PMs pre-2008 enjoyed a long stretch of validation while prices appreciated year after year. With a material percentage of that appreciation now gone, and month after month of relentless losses punctuated by vicious price smashes, it’s harder to feel as smart as it once was.

But it’s maddening. With the $3 trillion in new currency recently created by the Federal Reserve, shouldn’t precious metals be appreciating? Wildly? Isn’t that their central promise: to hold value as the purchasing power of paper money inflates away? But instead, they’re decreasing in dollar price, even as the money supply continues to expand. How is that possible?

And Bitcoin! From almost out of nowhere, a new alternative currency skyrockets from nearly valueless to (briefly?) match the price of gold. It’s like adding insult to injury for the 99.9% of precious metals holders who don’t also hold Bitcoin. How can the world suddenly wake up to the advantages offered by non-fiat currency, and yet still treat the granddaddy of sound money like kryptonite?

Sentiment

In 2009 and 2010, those of us who had warned our friends of the lurking risks in our economic and financial system suddenly looked like geniuses, instead of the kooks that folks had dismissed us as. Now, we’re back to being kooks.

A chart Chris has been sharing recently with our enrolled members shows that at no time in the past 30 years has sentiment been this bullish, not even during the Internet stock mania of the late 1990s:

Faith in the current system is as high as it has ever been, and folks don’t want to hear otherwise.

This extreme optimism extends beyond the Economy. In the Energy sphere, in news headlines discussion of the “shale miracle” is still omnipresent – without, of course, any mention of net energy, extraction costs, or depletion rates. In the Environment, coverage of the real-time collapse of key fisheries or water shortages likely to impact food production rarely gets any mainstream notice.

In short: If you’re one of those people who thinks it prudent to have intelligent discussion on some of these risks– that maybe the future will turn out to be less than 100% awesome in every dimension – you’re probably finding yourself standing alone at cocktail parties these days.

The Madness of Crowds

Charles MacKay’s excellent classic reference book, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, explains the nefarious nature of public manias: They strive to suck in as many participants as possible before collapsing.

We are seeing classic signs of the abandonment of concern by the public in favor of not missing out on ‘easy gains’. In addition to the examples mentioned above, signals that the fear trade has given way to the greed trade are abundant these days:

  • Stock chasing – Here’s a quote the WSJ recorded from an actual retail investor buying shares on the first day of the recent twitter IPO:  I messed up not buying any Facebook so I want to get some Twitter. I’m just buying because everyone’s talking about Twitter. Not because of its product (which she admitted she didn’t use). Or its business model (which has never been profitable and unclear whether it ever will be). The purchase decision was based purely on hype.
  • Priority abandonment – At Peak Prosperity, we speak with professional financial advisers frequently. The advisers we know best focus on risk mitigation and remain skeptical of the sustainability of the prolonged market rally. Many of their accounts signed on after 2008, clearly declaring that they prioritized protection of their capital over everything else. Yet a growing number of these investors are watching the continued rise in financial asset prices and are now pushing for more aggressive management. They’re abandoning the prudence that was so important to them just a few years ago.
  • Bear capitulation – The path to a bull market peak is littered with the carcasses of bearish analysts that dared to challenge its rise. As the % bearish Investors Intelligence chart above shows, there are few bears left to be found anymore. Just last week saw a major defection from the bear camp, with the perennially critical Hugh Hendry throwing in the towel, exclaiming:

I can no longer say I am bearish. When markets become parabolic, the people who exist within them are trend followers, because the guys who are qualitative have got taken out.

I cannot look at myself in the mirror; everything I have believed in I have had to reject. This environment only makes sense through the prism of trends.
I may be providing a public utility here, as the last bear to capitulate. You are well within your rights to say ‘sell’.
  • Warning sign dismissal – It’s not as if there aren’t clear alarm bells being sounded by the very experts the public looks to for such warnings. It’s just that these warnings are being ignored by the market. No one wants the party to end:

“All markets are bubbly”

~ Bill Gross, November 29, 2013

“In many countries the stock price levels are high, and in many real estate markets prices have risen sharply…that could end badly. I find the boom in the U.S. stock market most concerning,”

~ Robert Shiller, December 1, 2013

“Now, five years later, signs of frothiness, if not outright bubbles, are reappearing in [at least 17 global] housing markets”

“What we are witnessing in many countries looks like a slow-motion replay of the last housing-market train wreck. And, like last time, the bigger the bubbles become, the nastier the collision with reality will be.”

~ Nouriel Roubini, November 29, 2013

When this latest global asset bubble bursts as Roubini reminds us, by definition, it must; the public will cry,“Why didn’t anyone warn us?” The media will reflexively utter, “Nobody saw this coming,” But the truth is, there is evidence galore for those who choose to look for it.

The Wisdom of Looking Like an Idiot Today

The other key characteristic about popular manias/bubbles is that they collapse suddenly. Much more swiftly than they took to build.

The resultant carnage catches the masses like deer in headlights. The Kubler-Ross stages of grief begin quickly, and since Denial is Stage 1, most folks delay taking action out of disbelief. Soon the Bargaining stage is reached, and they continue to delay reaction as prices continue falling  praying for the chance to get out if a reversal would just happen. It’s not until Acceptance that most will take action, selling after the down draft has largely run its course.

Here are some useful stats to keep in mind that show how sudden and savage the 2008 market collapse was:

  • Week of Oct 6, 2008 – The Dow Jones drops 18%; its worst week ever in terms of both absolute and percentage loss.
  • March 6, 2009 – The nadir for the stock market. By this date, 5 months after the crisis began, the Dow was down 54% since October

The takeaway here is that the wealth destruction caught most investors flat-footed. Most were unprepared both psychologically as well as with their portfolio positioning – to react.

Many investors thought themselves savvy and nimble enough to avoid the losses they ultimately suffered, telling themselves an ill-fated narrative similar to what Charles Prince told his shareholders:

“When the music stops, in terms of liquidity, things will be complicated. But as long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance. We’re still dancing,”

~ Chuck Prince, Citigroup CEO, Jul 9 2007

Most readers remember how Citigroup’s price dropped from over $500/share, when Prince made this comment, to $10/share in March 2009. Prince was booted from his CEO role in late 2007 due to emerging losses resulting from the bank’s MBS and CDO positions, investment classes which proved to be at the heart of the 2008 crisis.

So, a smart question to ask at this time is: Is the moment in time we’re in today closer to January 2006, when there were several years left of exuberance to ride? Or is it more like September 2008, poised at the precipice?

A smarter answer is: There’s no way to know with acceptable certainty.

Like grains of sand piling up or snowflakes falling on a cornice, we can assess the growing level of risk, but we can’t identify the grain of sand or snowflake that will cause the eventual cascade. We can’t predict the collapse timing with confidence. We can – and will – continue to make our best-educated estimates, but the exact timing is unknowable.

So, given that fact, as John Hussman so pithily captures, bubble markets force us to make a choice:

The problem with bubbles is that they force one to decide whether to look like an idiot before the peak, or an idiot after the peak.

And so your choice is upon you. Look at the evidence around you  a movie nearly identical to one you saw in 2000 and again in 2008 – and either decide to party with the herd while the music plays (look smart today), or park yourself in safety now (look smart tomorrow).

Since the timing of the next correction is unknowable, the prudent choice is obvious. But it’s not easy, for all of the reasons mentioned at the start of this article.

A helpful question to ask yourself is: If I could talk to my 2009 self, what would s/he advise me to do?

For most of us, our past self, recently reminded of the anguish of wealth destruction, would say, “Run to safety!” at the first whiff of anything bubblicious. Research has shown that when the chips are down, the benefits of loss aversion are always preferred to the joys of gain.

Don’t put yourself in a position to relearn that lesson so soon after the last bubble. Exercise the wisdom to look like an idiot today.

The Need for Discipline is Greater Than Ever

Okay, so what should today’s “idiot” focus on doing?

  • Build cash – It’s not sexy. And it’s not fun to see the dollar price of nearly every asset known to man escalate while you hold cash. But bubbles are designed to take as much as possible from as many people as possible. During the popping of a bubble, the real wealth (underlying assets like companies, land, minerals, etc.) doesn’t vaporize like the high prices do. Those assets are simply transferred at a lower (more attractive) price to those people who still have money. Be one of those people.
  • Hold on to your precious metals – I know. It’s painful right now. For most PM owners, just hold onto what you have right now. Those with stronger stomachs should be dollar-cost averaging. Remember, the fundamentals for owning gold and silver have not changed AT ALL over the past few years. Stay largely with physical bullion. Don’t speculate with the mining stocks at this time unless you’re a risk junkie (or masochist?) and then only with money you can afford to lose.
  • Scout out locally-based hard-asset investments for the future – Once this bubble pops, higher interest rates and lower prices will result. Look around your local area for assets (businesses, housing, farmland, livestock, etc.) that you would consider holding at least a percentage ownership in. Calculate what price would make you an interested investor. While that price may be years away, when the impact of a market correction hits, you’ll be poised to move ahead of the other savvy investors to secure the opportunities you want (and play a role in stabilizing the community in which you live).
  • Design your trading plan for a market downdraft – What steps will you/your financial adviser take if the market starts cratering? If you don’t currently have a plan in place, now is the time to design it. Will you employ stops? What “safe assets” will you move to? (Treasurys, cash, other currencies?) Will you strictly be a sidelines observer, or will you take any active short positions on the downside? Will there be opportunity to generate income using vehicles like covered calls? Whatever makes sense for you, devise your strategy in the calmness of today vs. on the fly while the markets are melting down around you and everyone is panicking. And if your financial adviser is unable to provide you with a comforting answer as to his/her strategy for captaining your money through another 2008-like (or worse) correction, we have a few recommended advisers you may want to consider talking with.
  • Build your roof while the sun is shining – So many of the most valuable investments are not financial (emergency preparedness, energy efficiency, community, health  to name just a few). Use the gift of time we have now to invest in expanding your degree of resilience. If it’s been a while, take a fresh skim though our What Should I Do? Guide to identify any areas where you aren’t satisfactorily prepared. These are the investments that it’s infinitely better to have in place “a year early vs. a day late.”
  • Increase emotional fortitude – Being “wrong” in the eyes of society is trying. And it’s stressful for many, especially if your partner or others of those close to you don’t share your views. Keep learning by reading this site and a wide range of others, including those with opposing commentary. Develop your opinions based on the data you determine is most accurate – your ability to stand resolute against popular sentiment will be grounded in your confidence in the “big picture.” Seek support from the thousands of other Peak Prosperity readers who are wrestling with the same issue set you are, by participating in our Groups. We created them to help people support each other both virtually and “in person” within their local communities.
  • Develop an income loss plan – If we’re correct in our prediction of a major downdraft, a return to deep recession is likely, and with it, a return to higher unemployment. Loss of income is a stressful trauma, especially if it happens unexpectedly and is compounded by a hobbled job market. Take some time to assess your job’s level of vulnerability to another recession. If it’s higher than you’d like, ask yourself what you would do if a sudden layoff occurred. Start doing the work now to at least sketch out the path you would take if that happened. If possible, develop some relationships or related skills now that would give you an exceptional advantage, should you ever need to head down that route. The first third of our book, Finding Your Way to Your Authentic Career has a number of exercises that provide useful guidance for those looking to do this.
  • Develop an income enhancement plan – The resilience that comes with multiple income streams really helps you sleep at night, as you’re less vulnerable to having your entire life upended if a sudden pink slip appears. Also, having extra income to direct to other goals (retirement, education, homesteading, etc.) enables you to reach them faster. We’re all busy, but thinking creatively for a moment: What could you start doing today to secure extra income streams in the future? This is a topic that Chris often helps folks think through in his consultations.

Essentially, the approach here is to dismiss what is not in our control and focus on what we can best do with what is.

Be practical. Be prudent. Be dull to those watching you from the dance floor.

John Hussman signed off his latest report with the advice: “Risk dominates. Hold tight.”  I agree. Now is the time act with the courage of our convictions.

As Kipling put it, at the end of his poem:

If you can force your heart and nerve and sinew
To serve your turn long after they are gone,
And so hold on when there is nothing in you
Except the Will which says to them: ‘Hold on!’

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,
Or walk with Kings – nor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much;
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds’ worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything that’s in it,
And – which is more – you’ll be a Man, my son!

~ Adam Taggart

 

Paradigm Blindness | KUNSTLER

Paradigm Blindness | KUNSTLER. (FULL ARTICLE)

Something is sucking the air out of the humid terrarium that is US politics, making the lizards, tarantulas, and scorpions within hyperventilate. That something is the vacuum of disappearing wealth. All the accounting fraud, statistical mis-reporting, price manipulations, naked-short beat-downs, high-speed arbitrage hijinks, and carry trade rackets can’t conceal the reality that the nation is going broke – at least 99 percent of the nation. The remaining 1 percenters, outside the terrarium, are swimming in a pool of notional wealth that is primed to go down the drain and leave them at the bottom, desiccated little husks of animal matter that the crows will feed on.

The reason nobody seems to know what to do is because they know anything they do will make them look bad, so the only thing to do is nothing, with a sound track of lizard squawks and much darting of forked tongues. Nature is now in charge, not personalities, and nature is now leading a purblind humanity to the place it has to go, which is smaller, simpler, and local. The flailings and squawking of politicians can only avail to make the journey more painful and disorderly, but the march is on….

 

A Baby-Boomer’s Apology: “What Were We Thinking?” | Zero Hedge

A Baby-Boomer’s Apology: “What Were We Thinking?” | Zero Hedge.

 

How To Create A Root Cellar For Food Storage

How To Create A Root Cellar For Food Storage.

 

The Oil Drum | Campfire: Towards Homo Sapiens – A Movie Script

The Oil Drum | Campfire: Towards Homo Sapiens – A Movie Script.

 

These False Flags Were Used To Start A War | Zero Hedge

These False Flags Were Used To Start A War | Zero Hedge.

 

Gold, Silver, And The Seven Stages Of Empire | Zero Hedge

Gold, Silver, And The Seven Stages Of Empire | Zero Hedge.

 

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