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Russia Returns Favor, Sees Chinese Yuan As World Reserve Currency | Zero Hedge

Russia Returns Favor, Sees Chinese Yuan As World Reserve Currency | Zero Hedge.

Following China’s unwillingness to vote against Russia at the UN and yesterday’s news that China will sue Ukraine for $3bn loan repayment, it seems Russia is returning the favor. Speaking at the Chinese Economic Development Forum, ITAR-TASS reports, the Chief Economist of Russia’s largest bank stated that “China’s Yuan may become the third reserve currency in the in the future.”

 

Managing Director and Chief Economist of investment company Sberbank Yevgeny Gavrilenkov said at the 15th governmental Chinese economic development forum in the Chinese capital on Sunday (via ITAR-TASS):

China’s yuan (renminbi) may become a third reserve currency in the world in the future

 

“This forecast can be made on figures of domestic economic growth. Probably the country will keep high GDP growth rate and the GDP volume will increase to around 14-16 trillion U.S. dollars for a brief period of time, the indicators comparable to the European Union and the United States.

 

Meanwhile, Chinese securities are more attractive for the countries that have a surplus in economy, particularly the Middle East states; and China will obviously follow the path of securing the country’s assets,”

The forum which opened in the Chinese capital on March 22 discusses a broad range of issues of economic reforms and China’s stronger role as the second largest world economy. First Deputy Prime Minister of the Chinese State Council Zhang Gaoli, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Christine Lagarde and top managers of major world corporations participate in the forum as honorary guests.

Of course, as we noted previously, nothing lasts forever

 [12]

 

and with Friday’s “Petrodollar Alert” perhaps things are moving faster than many assumed.

Russia Returns Favor, Sees Chinese Yuan As World Reserve Currency | Zero Hedge

Russia Returns Favor, Sees Chinese Yuan As World Reserve Currency | Zero Hedge.

Following China’s unwillingness to vote against Russia at the UN and yesterday’s news that China will sue Ukraine for $3bn loan repayment, it seems Russia is returning the favor. Speaking at the Chinese Economic Development Forum, ITAR-TASS reports, the Chief Economist of Russia’s largest bank stated that “China’s Yuan may become the third reserve currency in the in the future.”

 

Managing Director and Chief Economist of investment company Sberbank Yevgeny Gavrilenkov said at the 15th governmental Chinese economic development forum in the Chinese capital on Sunday (via ITAR-TASS):

China’s yuan (renminbi) may become a third reserve currency in the world in the future

 

“This forecast can be made on figures of domestic economic growth. Probably the country will keep high GDP growth rate and the GDP volume will increase to around 14-16 trillion U.S. dollars for a brief period of time, the indicators comparable to the European Union and the United States.

 

Meanwhile, Chinese securities are more attractive for the countries that have a surplus in economy, particularly the Middle East states; and China will obviously follow the path of securing the country’s assets,”

The forum which opened in the Chinese capital on March 22 discusses a broad range of issues of economic reforms and China’s stronger role as the second largest world economy. First Deputy Prime Minister of the Chinese State Council Zhang Gaoli, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund Christine Lagarde and top managers of major world corporations participate in the forum as honorary guests.

Of course, as we noted previously, nothing lasts forever

 [12]

 

and with Friday’s “Petrodollar Alert” perhaps things are moving faster than many assumed.

Forget Russia Dumping U.S. Treasuries … Here’s the REAL Economic Threat Washington’s Blog

Forget Russia Dumping U.S. Treasuries … Here’s the REAL Economic Threat Washington’s Blog.

Russia Could Crush the Petrodollar

Russia threatened to dump its U.S. treasuries if America imposed sanctions regarding Russia’s action in the Crimea.

Zero Hedge argues that Russia has already done so.

But veteran investor Jim Sinclair argues that Russia has a much scarier financial attack which Russia can use against the U.S.

Specifically, Sinclair says that if Russia accepts payment for oil and gas in any currency other than the dollar – whether it’s gold, the Euro, the Ruble, the Rupee, or anything else – then the U.S. petrodollar system will collapse:

Indeed, one of the main pillars for U.S. power is the petrodollar, and the U.S. is desperate for the dollar to maintain reserve status.  Some wise commentators have argued that recent U.S. wars have really been about keeping the rest of the world on the petrodollar standard.

The theory is that – after Nixon took the U.S. off the gold standard, which had made the dollar the world’s reserve currency – America salvaged that role by adopting the petrodollar.   Specifically, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia agreed that all oil and gas would be priced in dollars, so the rest of the world had to use dollars for most transactions.

But Reuters notes that Russia may be mere months away from signing a bilateral trade deal with China, where China would buy huge quantities of Russian oil and gas.

Zero Hedge argues:

Add bilateral trade denominated in either Rubles or Renminbi (or gold), add Iran, Iraq, India, and soon the Saudis (China’s largest foreign source of crude, whose crown prince also happened to meet president Xi Jinping last week to expand trade further) and wave goodbye to the petrodollar.

As we noted last year:

The average life expectancy for a fiat currency is less than 40 years.

But what about “reserve currencies”, like the U.S. dollar?

JP Morgan noted last year that “reserve currencies” have a limited shelf-life:

https://i2.wp.com/www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/10/Reserve%20Currency%20Status.png

As the table shows, U.S. reserve status has already lasted as long as Portugal and the Netherland’s reigns.  It won’t happen tomorrow, or next week … but the end of the dollar’s rein is coming nonetheless, and China and many other countries are calling for a new reserve currency.

Remember, China is entering into more and more major deals with other countries to settle trades in Yuans, instead of dollars.  This includes the European Union (the world’s largest economy) [and also Russia].

And China is quietly becoming a gold superpower

Given that China has surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest importer of oil, Saudi Arabia is moving away from the U.S. … and towards China. (Some even argue that the world will switch from the petrodollar to the petroYUAN. We’re not convinced that will happen.)

In any event, a switch to pricing petroleum in anything other than dollars exclusively – whether a single alternative currency, gold, or even a mix of currencies or commodities – would spell the end of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

For that reason, Sinclair – no fan of either Russia or Putin – urges American leaders to back away from an economic confrontation with Russia, arguing that the U.S. would be the loser.

Forget Russia Dumping U.S. Treasuries … Here's the REAL Economic Threat Washington's Blog

Forget Russia Dumping U.S. Treasuries … Here’s the REAL Economic Threat Washington’s Blog.

Russia Could Crush the Petrodollar

Russia threatened to dump its U.S. treasuries if America imposed sanctions regarding Russia’s action in the Crimea.

Zero Hedge argues that Russia has already done so.

But veteran investor Jim Sinclair argues that Russia has a much scarier financial attack which Russia can use against the U.S.

Specifically, Sinclair says that if Russia accepts payment for oil and gas in any currency other than the dollar – whether it’s gold, the Euro, the Ruble, the Rupee, or anything else – then the U.S. petrodollar system will collapse:

Indeed, one of the main pillars for U.S. power is the petrodollar, and the U.S. is desperate for the dollar to maintain reserve status.  Some wise commentators have argued that recent U.S. wars have really been about keeping the rest of the world on the petrodollar standard.

The theory is that – after Nixon took the U.S. off the gold standard, which had made the dollar the world’s reserve currency – America salvaged that role by adopting the petrodollar.   Specifically, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia agreed that all oil and gas would be priced in dollars, so the rest of the world had to use dollars for most transactions.

But Reuters notes that Russia may be mere months away from signing a bilateral trade deal with China, where China would buy huge quantities of Russian oil and gas.

Zero Hedge argues:

Add bilateral trade denominated in either Rubles or Renminbi (or gold), add Iran, Iraq, India, and soon the Saudis (China’s largest foreign source of crude, whose crown prince also happened to meet president Xi Jinping last week to expand trade further) and wave goodbye to the petrodollar.

As we noted last year:

The average life expectancy for a fiat currency is less than 40 years.

But what about “reserve currencies”, like the U.S. dollar?

JP Morgan noted last year that “reserve currencies” have a limited shelf-life:

https://i2.wp.com/www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2013/10/Reserve%20Currency%20Status.png

As the table shows, U.S. reserve status has already lasted as long as Portugal and the Netherland’s reigns.  It won’t happen tomorrow, or next week … but the end of the dollar’s rein is coming nonetheless, and China and many other countries are calling for a new reserve currency.

Remember, China is entering into more and more major deals with other countries to settle trades in Yuans, instead of dollars.  This includes the European Union (the world’s largest economy) [and also Russia].

And China is quietly becoming a gold superpower

Given that China has surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest importer of oil, Saudi Arabia is moving away from the U.S. … and towards China. (Some even argue that the world will switch from the petrodollar to the petroYUAN. We’re not convinced that will happen.)

In any event, a switch to pricing petroleum in anything other than dollars exclusively – whether a single alternative currency, gold, or even a mix of currencies or commodities – would spell the end of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.

For that reason, Sinclair – no fan of either Russia or Putin – urges American leaders to back away from an economic confrontation with Russia, arguing that the U.S. would be the loser.

Saudi c.bank: China yuan good diversifier, but far from reserve currency | Reuters

Saudi c.bank: China yuan good diversifier, but far from reserve currency | Reuters.

BY MARWA RASHAD

RIYADH, March 16 Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:58am EDT

(Reuters) – Saudi Arabia thinks that the Chinese yuan is a good option for diversifying foreign currency reserves but it is still far from being a reserve currency, its central bank governor Fahad al-Mubarak said on Sunday.

Asked whether it made sense to consider diversifying the central bank’s reserves to include the yuan, also known as the renminbi, or explore a currency swap agreement, Mubarak said: “We think it is a stronger currency, but it is far from being a reserve currency at this stage.”

“But indeed it represents a good option and a good diversifier and we have seen that some of the central banks have some reserves in the renminbi,” he said at an annual news conference in the Saudi capital.

Mubarak, who does not comment on policy outside of annual press briefings, did not say, however, whether the central bank had considered adding the yuan to its portfolio of net foreign assets. Its reserves, the vast majority of which are believed to be in U.S. dollars, grew to a record $718 billion in January.

A gradual easing of restrictions on the yuan and increasing trade with China have led some of Beijing’s partner countries include the renminbi in their official reserves and open currency swap agreements.

Last year, Taiwan’s central bank said it was holding the yuan in its foreign exchange reserves portfolio in recognition of the yuan’s growing globalisation and importance of trade, while Australia’s central bank unveiled a plan to invest some of its reserves in Chinese government bonds for the first time.

Among the Gulf Arab oil exporters, who mostly peg their currencies to the U.S. dollar, the United Arab Emirates signed a three-year currency swap agreement worth $5.5 billion with China in 2012 to boost two-way trade and investment.

Oil giant Saudi Arabia is the top crude supplier for China, the world’s second biggest economy. Last year, the Gulf monarchy supplied Beijing with around 1.17 million barrels per day of oil and is expected to deliver the same amount this year, according to traders.

Beijing has laid out plans to make the yuan convertible on the capital account, but its market interventions to hold back the pace of appreciation have shown a wariness of currency liberalisation.

Saudi c.bank: China yuan good diversifier, but far from reserve currency | Reuters

Saudi c.bank: China yuan good diversifier, but far from reserve currency | Reuters.

BY MARWA RASHAD

RIYADH, March 16 Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:58am EDT

(Reuters) – Saudi Arabia thinks that the Chinese yuan is a good option for diversifying foreign currency reserves but it is still far from being a reserve currency, its central bank governor Fahad al-Mubarak said on Sunday.

Asked whether it made sense to consider diversifying the central bank’s reserves to include the yuan, also known as the renminbi, or explore a currency swap agreement, Mubarak said: “We think it is a stronger currency, but it is far from being a reserve currency at this stage.”

“But indeed it represents a good option and a good diversifier and we have seen that some of the central banks have some reserves in the renminbi,” he said at an annual news conference in the Saudi capital.

Mubarak, who does not comment on policy outside of annual press briefings, did not say, however, whether the central bank had considered adding the yuan to its portfolio of net foreign assets. Its reserves, the vast majority of which are believed to be in U.S. dollars, grew to a record $718 billion in January.

A gradual easing of restrictions on the yuan and increasing trade with China have led some of Beijing’s partner countries include the renminbi in their official reserves and open currency swap agreements.

Last year, Taiwan’s central bank said it was holding the yuan in its foreign exchange reserves portfolio in recognition of the yuan’s growing globalisation and importance of trade, while Australia’s central bank unveiled a plan to invest some of its reserves in Chinese government bonds for the first time.

Among the Gulf Arab oil exporters, who mostly peg their currencies to the U.S. dollar, the United Arab Emirates signed a three-year currency swap agreement worth $5.5 billion with China in 2012 to boost two-way trade and investment.

Oil giant Saudi Arabia is the top crude supplier for China, the world’s second biggest economy. Last year, the Gulf monarchy supplied Beijing with around 1.17 million barrels per day of oil and is expected to deliver the same amount this year, according to traders.

Beijing has laid out plans to make the yuan convertible on the capital account, but its market interventions to hold back the pace of appreciation have shown a wariness of currency liberalisation.

Game Changer: It Will Be Shocking for the Average American: "Your Cost of Living Will Quadruple"

Game Changer: It Will Be Shocking for the Average American: “Your Cost of Living Will Quadruple”.

Mac Slavo
March 9th, 2014
SHTFplan.com 

It’s no secret that the U.S. government is in serious fiscal trouble. So much so that our Treasury Secretary recently noted that should the debt ceiling fail to be increased, the fall-out would be “catastrophic” and last for generations.

Given that sobering report, consider that everything in America, from food to fuel, is subsidized in one way or another. Those subsidies are being paid with ever-increasing debt. It is inevitable that at some point the world’s reserve currency, the US dollar, will be wiped out. The trigger for such an event is irrelevant. What is relevant, is how average Americans will be affected when that day comes.

In recent months working Americans have seen their health care costs triple. But this is just the beginning. When America’s debt problems come to a head the subsidies will be removed, and that will lead to cost of living increases that will leave those who never saw it coming in a state of confusion and bewilderment with no way out.

Marin Katusa of Casey Research, who has met with business and political leaders in over one hundred countries and is one of the most successful contrarian investment analysts out there, has some thoughts on the matter.

It will be shocking for the average American… if the petro dollar dies and the U.S. loses its reserve currency status in the world there will be no middle class.

The middle class and the low class… wow… what a game changer. Your cost of living will quadruple.

In the following must-watch interview with the Sound Money Campaign, Marin outlines the reasons for why our cost of living is going through the roof, the effects of geo-politics on our future, and ways to insulate yourself from what’s coming.

(Watch at Youtube)

Imagine this… take a country like Croatia… the average worker with a university degree makes about 1200 Euros a month. He spends a third of that, after tax, on keeping his house warm and filling up his gas tank to get to work and get back from work.

In North America, we don’t make $1200 a month, and we don’t spend a third of our paycheck on keeping our house warm and driving to work… so, the cost of living… food will triple… heat, electricity, everything subsidized by the government will triple overnight… and it will only get worse even if you can get the services.

For the average citizen, they should be thinking, ‘I should store some gold here and there as insurance for all of this.’

Now, I don’t know when it will happen. But it will happen, because it’s happened to all currencies.

I don’t think the people of Rome thought that Rome would ever fall as an empire… but it did.

So, you have to be prepared and protect your family. That’s why you want leverage to things that have major upside when the dollar does collapse. And the best insurance for that is gold.

As Marin notes, the assets you hold should be such that they maintain or increase their value as the Petrol dollar crashes and America’s debt bubble bursts.

For those with retirement investments like 401k’s, IRA’s or cash, Marin suggests you look to healthy gold companies as insurance. Back in the Great Depression of the 1930′s, as stocks crashed and then stagnated, those with investments in gold mining companies were able to not only preserve wealth, but grow it.

Those who prefer to keep their assets in physical holdings should look to gold and silver bullion, as well as those items that will become difficult to obtain when prices sky rocket. These core physical assets might mean long-term food stores, land with productive capacity, and personal energy production facilities that may include wind, solar or hydro.

If there is one trend that has taken hold over the last decade it’s continued price rises for the basic necessities of modern life. Given that we are now in more debt as a nation and individuals than ever before, it’s not hard to see where this is headed.

If you need a mainstream forecast to confirm what’s going to happen, then we point you to the words of President Barack Obama, who several years ago stated unequivocally that, “electricity rates will necessarily skyrocket.” He should know, because his policies are a significant contribution to what’s going to happen in the very near future.

Look out below.

dollar-value

Game Changer: It Will Be Shocking for the Average American: “Your Cost of Living Will Quadruple”

Game Changer: It Will Be Shocking for the Average American: “Your Cost of Living Will Quadruple”.

Mac Slavo
March 9th, 2014
SHTFplan.com 

It’s no secret that the U.S. government is in serious fiscal trouble. So much so that our Treasury Secretary recently noted that should the debt ceiling fail to be increased, the fall-out would be “catastrophic” and last for generations.

Given that sobering report, consider that everything in America, from food to fuel, is subsidized in one way or another. Those subsidies are being paid with ever-increasing debt. It is inevitable that at some point the world’s reserve currency, the US dollar, will be wiped out. The trigger for such an event is irrelevant. What is relevant, is how average Americans will be affected when that day comes.

In recent months working Americans have seen their health care costs triple. But this is just the beginning. When America’s debt problems come to a head the subsidies will be removed, and that will lead to cost of living increases that will leave those who never saw it coming in a state of confusion and bewilderment with no way out.

Marin Katusa of Casey Research, who has met with business and political leaders in over one hundred countries and is one of the most successful contrarian investment analysts out there, has some thoughts on the matter.

It will be shocking for the average American… if the petro dollar dies and the U.S. loses its reserve currency status in the world there will be no middle class.

The middle class and the low class… wow… what a game changer. Your cost of living will quadruple.

In the following must-watch interview with the Sound Money Campaign, Marin outlines the reasons for why our cost of living is going through the roof, the effects of geo-politics on our future, and ways to insulate yourself from what’s coming.

(Watch at Youtube)

Imagine this… take a country like Croatia… the average worker with a university degree makes about 1200 Euros a month. He spends a third of that, after tax, on keeping his house warm and filling up his gas tank to get to work and get back from work.

In North America, we don’t make $1200 a month, and we don’t spend a third of our paycheck on keeping our house warm and driving to work… so, the cost of living… food will triple… heat, electricity, everything subsidized by the government will triple overnight… and it will only get worse even if you can get the services.

For the average citizen, they should be thinking, ‘I should store some gold here and there as insurance for all of this.’

Now, I don’t know when it will happen. But it will happen, because it’s happened to all currencies.

I don’t think the people of Rome thought that Rome would ever fall as an empire… but it did.

So, you have to be prepared and protect your family. That’s why you want leverage to things that have major upside when the dollar does collapse. And the best insurance for that is gold.

As Marin notes, the assets you hold should be such that they maintain or increase their value as the Petrol dollar crashes and America’s debt bubble bursts.

For those with retirement investments like 401k’s, IRA’s or cash, Marin suggests you look to healthy gold companies as insurance. Back in the Great Depression of the 1930′s, as stocks crashed and then stagnated, those with investments in gold mining companies were able to not only preserve wealth, but grow it.

Those who prefer to keep their assets in physical holdings should look to gold and silver bullion, as well as those items that will become difficult to obtain when prices sky rocket. These core physical assets might mean long-term food stores, land with productive capacity, and personal energy production facilities that may include wind, solar or hydro.

If there is one trend that has taken hold over the last decade it’s continued price rises for the basic necessities of modern life. Given that we are now in more debt as a nation and individuals than ever before, it’s not hard to see where this is headed.

If you need a mainstream forecast to confirm what’s going to happen, then we point you to the words of President Barack Obama, who several years ago stated unequivocally that, “electricity rates will necessarily skyrocket.” He should know, because his policies are a significant contribution to what’s going to happen in the very near future.

Look out below.

dollar-value

Yuan to supersede dollar as top reserve currency: survey

Yuan to supersede dollar as top reserve currency: survey.

 Published: Wednesday, 26 Feb 2014 | 10:29 PM ET
By:  | Writer, CNBC Asia

The tightly controlled Chinese yuan will eventually supersede the dollar as the top international reserve currency, according to a new poll of institutional investors.

The survey of 200 institutional investors – 100 headquartered in mainland China and 100 outside of it – published by State Street and the Economist Intelligence Unit on Thursday found 53 percent of investors think the renminbi will surpass the U.S. dollar as the world’s major reserve currency.

Optimism was higher within China, where 62 percent said they saw a redback world on the horizon, compared with 43 percent outside China.

Hudiemm | E+ | Getty Images

“As China’s economic influence grows, the global importance of the renminbi will become magnified. Indeed, while for decades it has been a ‘greenback world’, dominated by the U.S. dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency, many think a ‘redback world’, in which the renminbi enjoys premier status, is increasingly a possibility,” the report accompanying the survey said.

(Read moreYuan takesanother step forward as a world currency)

This view was shared by European Central Bank Executive Board member Yves Mersch, who said on Wednesday that China’s yuan is gaining importance in international trade and investment and might ultimately challenge the U.S. dollar.

However, skeptics of yuan internationalization argued that the renminbi will never be liquid enough across all asset classes to serve as a viable reserve currency, and that people will not trust the renminbi as a store of value.

Despite being a closely-managed currency, the renminbi’s global clout has been rising steadily. By the end of 2013, the renminbi had become the second most used trade financing currency and ninth most used currency for payments globally.

(Read moreYuan overtakes euro as 2nd most used currency in trade finance)

Recent moves in the yuan have triggered speculation that the People’s Bank of China is getting ready to widen its trading band – which would be a step towards liberalizing the Chinese currency. The yuan is currently allowed to rise or fall by 1 percent in either direction from a level fixed against the dollar each day by the country’s central bank.

Ultimately, a greater role for the yuan would require China to liberalize its financial policies, including decreasing exchange-rate intervention, liberalizing interest rates and relaxing restrictions on capital flows.

Play Video
PBOC is the ‘market’ behind yuan: Julius Baer
Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Bank Julius Baer, says recent weakness in the Chinese yuan could be a move executed by the Chinese central bank to shake out speculators.

Two-thirds of the respondents of the survey expect Beijing to complete its financial liberalization within ten years, with a majority expecting major reforms within five.

(Read moreIs China getting ready to widen the yuan’s band?)

Financial liberalization in the mainland began in earnest after 2009, with the government’s decision to allow cross-border trade settlement in renminbi, ease the process of listing offshore bonds and introduce the renminbi qualified institutional investors (RQFII) program.

The reforms, however, are still limited in scope, with strict quotas for how much currency can move across the border.

Last year, the government launched the Shanghai free-trade zone as a testing ground for financial reforms, including full yuan convertibility.

—By CNBC’s Ansuya Harjani. Follow her on Twitter @Ansuya_H

Goodbye Dollar, Hello Yuan – FinancialJuice – Live News. Live Discussion.

Goodbye Dollar, Hello Yuan – FinancialJuice – Live News. Live Discussion..

Goodbye Dollar, Hello Yuan


You know what’s it like, the driver stands there in front of the car that has just hit you up the back while looking at something happening down the street rather than checking on you hitting your breaks…and yet, he says “sorry, but you stopped too quickly, it wasn’t my bad driving”. Why is it that people just refuse to admit the truth even where it comes up and slaps them in the face? It’s exactly the same with the Death of the Dollar. Denial is the first stage in the mourning process that people go through when they have lost a loved one. Yes, just the mere fact that there is many an American out there who is actually denying this means that the Dollar is lying feet up on its back, six feet under already today. They are simply, in denying the fact, espousing the 7 stages of bereavement. The Dollar is dead. Today it’s Australia that will be sending flowers to the Americans.

ASX, the Australian Stock-Exchange operator and the Bank of China announced today that they are going to provide a Yuan settlement service between the two countries by the end of the first half-year 2014. China represents the biggest trading partner for the Australian market and trading in Dollars has no sense today. Transactions have been increasingly made in Yuan rather than the Dollar over the past few years. This new agreement comes just after last October’s agreement between the Eurozone and China and the currency-swap deal.

For all of those out there that will be screaming from the rooftops that China is slowing down, that the economy is under-performing (incidentally, they are still performing way better than any of us in the western world) the Chinese currency is one of the top traded currencies today in the world, and Australia has just said they don’t care if the economy is slowing down. The reason why the deal has been struck is because they are looking at China in the long-term view.

Since September 2013, the Yuan has been in the top ten of tradable currencies, according to research carried out by the Bank of International Settlements. The Yuan saw a jump from 17th position in 2010 to 9th place in 2013. There may be a slow-down in the economy and there may be problems with the structural reforms undertaken by the government, but in the long-term the Yuan will be traded more and more. The Australians are proving that today.

The financial market reforms have been centered on liberalization of the capital account and the convertibility of the Yuan. The only countries that offer complete convertibility at the moment are the USA, Japan and Australia.

Certainly the shadow-banking problems are far from over. There will be more that come out of the woodwork in the coming weeks. It is estimated that 40% of the 10 trillion Yuan in trust products that are used in shadow banking will mature in 2014. That means that we could be in for a lot more examples of the $126 million-worth of products issued by Jilin Province Trust that defaulted on the repayment to investors over the past couple of weeks after having made loans to the failing coal company Shanxi Liansheng Energy (at the same time as 6 other trusts also made loans of up to 5 billion Yuan to this company that was already bankrupt and dead). 80% of trust-product principal is going to be repaid to investors between 2014 and 2016. That could spell trouble.

Bailing out trust investors continually will bring about problems of financial stability of the country. But, in the long-term there is the belief that the Yuan will succeed. All of that is true, but the Dollar may well be dead completely, and buried, before the Yuan fails.
In the process of acceptance of bereavement, the next stage after denial will be anger. Then the US will enter the period of bargaining with the rest of the world to try to save its place somehow on the international scene. Once it has been through the penultimate stage of depression (oh, no! Not again!), it will finally accept. But, for the moment, they shall just keep on denying lock, stock and barrel. The rest of the world, like the Australians, are seeing to it that the Dollar dies a quicker death than it would perhaps have normally done.

Remember it’s not the value of the Dollar that is important or whether or not the Yuan can be a valued asset in the world to trade with, it’s the perception that we, as consumers and countries, actually have of that currency. The Australians are showing that the Yuan has just been perceived as possibly of greater value than the Dollar.

Tissue to dry your eyes?

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