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Market Cornered: JPMorgan Owns Over 60% Notional Of All Gold Derivatives | Zero Hedge
Market Cornered: JPMorgan Owns Over 60% Notional Of All Gold Derivatives | Zero Hedge.
Perhaps the only question we have after seeing the attached table, which shows that as of Q3, 2013 JPMorgan owned $65.4 billion, or just over 60% of the total notional ($108.2 billion) of all gold derivatives in the US, is whether the CFTC will pull the “our budget was too small” excuse to justify why it allowed Jamie Dimon to ignore any and all position limits and corner the gold market?
And purely as a reference point, the chart below compares the total value of gold held in JPM’s vault (registered and eligible) as of Friday’s closing price with its reported gold derivative notional holdings.
Finally, for the purists out there, we realize that gross is not net… until there is a breach in the derivative counterparty collateral chain, and gross becomes net.
JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon Got Rich on His Merits | Conrad Black
JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon Got Rich on His Merits | Conrad Black.
There has been a great deal of absurd, and often malicious comment about disparity of income and wealth in American society and in the West generally. It is a legitimate question of whether the head of a company should earn 500 times as much as the most junior employee, and of why such wealth is concentrated in so few hands, although the wealthy do, as a group, pay their share and more of income taxes, contrary to a lot of political myth-making.
And there has been much comment, some of it very unfair, about individual financiers and industrialists. Nothing is easier in difficult economic times than to scapegoat the financially successful, especially if they live conspicuously well and are frequently publicized. There is no doubt that Jamie Dimon has had a successful career boot-strapping himself up through mergers and job-changes from bank to bank until he personifies the folkloric legacy of two of the greatest names in the history of Western finance as chief executive of J.P. Morgan Chase.
J. Pierpont Morgan was the founder of modern merchant and investment banking and exercised an influence over the financial communities of London and New York that probably exceeded any such status held by anyone since Julius Caesar’s wealthy friend Crassus, (who owned the Roman fire department, and went around igniting fires and extorting for the services of the firefighters). Mr. Morgan famously advised President Theodore Roosevelt to “have your man meet my man” and they would work out any problems.
Morgan’s influence steadied nerves in the Panic of 1906, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average descended to eight, which is now at 16,000. He controlled the White Star Line, which owned the great ocean liner Titanic, but the disaster that befell that ship was never linked to Morgan.
Salmon P. Chase was the leader of the new Republican Party in Ohio, ran third to Abraham Lincoln and William H. Seward at the Republican presidential nominating convention in 1860, and served with distinction as secretary of the Treasury in Lincoln’s administration during the Civil War, until Lincoln elevated him to be chief justice of the United States.
Jamie Dimon is not as prominent as Morgan or Chase but has been the leading American lending banker for the last decade, and brought his bank through the 2008 crisis with comparative distinction. Yet there is something incongruous and something irritating about his ostentatious groupie’s adulation of President Obama, illustrated by a full, Dimon family three-day attendance at the first Obama inauguration, followed by a sequence of official policies Dimon and his fellow bankers disapproved, and by $20 billion in fines and legal charges assessed against J.P. Morgan Chase because of Dimon’s aggressive management, some of it to please the U.S. Treasury.
And there is also an annoying aspect to his quick salarial rebound from his own management errors and those of some of his senior officers which led to over six billion in losses in a series of trading fiascos. His directors held Dimon responsible for that debacle, and he took almost a 50 per cent pay-cut last year, but almost all of it was restored this year, to give him a pay packet of $20 million for the year. The orchestration of the performing directors and the inevitable and ubiquitous Warren Buffett warbling to shareholders and the financial press that Dimon would be a bargain at twice the price may be true, but it is so contrived and sanctimonious, it is still annoying.
It is not, however, sufficiently irritating to push a reasonable person into the camp of Mr. Dimon’s vocal critics, some of the institutional investors and unions, who carp and whine at a less bald pretext than a drop of the hat, and masquerade as shareholding democrats with the savings of others. They have been demanding that Dimon separate his position as CEO from being chairman, and abandon the latter post. This is a red herring.
Jamie Dimon got where he is by merit and there is nothing to be gained in inflicting such window-dressing restrictions to his position. If he retains the confidence of competent and responsible directors to run the bank, nibbling and chiselling at his position will not accomplish anything and minimal attention should be paid to the posturers and meddlers among institutional investors, who almost never have enough executive aptitude or judgment to run a two-car funeral.
As for the unions, they are a medieval retardation of the American economy and one of the more egregious of the Obama administration’s many failings is that it effectively handed the automobile industry which the United Auto Workers, admittedly with the full complicity of incompetent management, drove into insolvency, to the unions, over the financial corpse of the bondholders and shareholders. (I had been a shareholder of General Motors since I was eight years old and I did not even get a notice that my three shares were now worthless and had been cancelled.)
While I am recounting personal grievances, an account of our company that was in perfectly good order was abruptly cancelled and the loan called on Dimon’s instructions when he was head of Bank One in Chicago in 2001. It had nothing to do with the quality of the loan, only that he decided to discontinue that kind of loan (a form of swap); we had no difficulty replacing Bank One and the loan was paid in full on schedule the following year. Dimon’s abruptness could be taken as dynamic execution by some, but in a service industry, it was just hip-shooting of a gratuitously rude kind. He was a shoulders-and-elbows self-promoter for some time after he should have outgrown such affectations.
Having got that off my chest, I would defend Dimon against his critics now, but if he wants a pay-raise, he should not organize a political campaign and enlist an old hoofer like Buffett, who is now a self-proclaimed expert on more subjects than Mark Twain. We all make mistakes and in a big bank they can be costly; the ranks of those with buyer’s remorse over Obama are deep.
But there is a quality about Dimon that appears to be clinging to his earlier fluffed-up reputation as a miracle worker. He’s not an impresario or a politician; could he act more like a meat and potatoes banker? The country needs them. It doesn’t need prima donnas trying to do a star turn over a 74 per cent pay increase after presiding so recently over a $26 billion bloodbath for his shareholders.
THE RETAIL DEATH RATTLE « The Burning Platform
THE RETAIL DEATH RATTLE « The Burning Platform.
“I was part of that strange race of people aptly described as spending their lives doing things they detest, to make money they don’t want, to buy things they don’t need, to impress people they don’t like.” ― Emile Gauvreau
If ever a chart provided unequivocal proof the economic recovery storyline is a fraud, the one below is the smoking gun. November and December retail sales account for 20% to 40% of annual retail sales for most retailers. The number of visits to retail stores has plummeted by 50% since 2010. Please note this was during a supposed economic recovery. Also note consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP. Also note credit card debt outstanding is 7% lower than its level in 2010 and 16% below its peak in 2008. Retailers like J.C. Penney, Best Buy, Sears, Radio Shack and Barnes & Noble continue to report appalling sales and profit results, along with listings of store closings. Even the heavyweights like Wal-Mart and Target continue to report negative comp store sales. How can the government and mainstream media be reporting an economic recovery when the industry that accounts for 70% of GDP is in free fall? The answer is that 99% of America has not had an economic recovery. Only Bernanke’s 1% owner class have benefited from his QE/ZIRP induced stock market levitation.
The entire economic recovery storyline is a sham built upon easy money funneled by the Fed to the Too Big To Trust Wall Street banks so they can use their HFT supercomputers to drive the stock market higher, buy up the millions of homes they foreclosed upon to artificially drive up home prices, and generate profits through rigging commodity, currency, and bond markets, while reducing loan loss reserves because they are free to value their toxic assets at anything they please – compliments of the spineless nerds at the FASB. GDP has been artificially propped up by the Federal government through the magic of EBT cards, SSDI for the depressed and downtrodden, never ending extensions of unemployment benefits, billions in student loans to University of Phoenix prodigies, and subprime auto loans to deadbeats from the Government Motors financing arm – Ally Financial (85% owned by you the taxpayer). The country is being kept afloat on an ocean of debt and delusional belief in the power of central bankers to steer this ship through a sea of icebergs just below the surface.
The absolute collapse in retail visitor counts is the warning siren that this country is about to collide with the reality Americans have run out of time, money, jobs, and illusions. The most amazingly delusional aspect to the chart above is retailers continued to add 44 million square feet in 2013 to the almost 15 billion existing square feet of retail space in the U.S. That is approximately 47 square feet of retail space for every person in America. Retail CEOs are not the brightest bulbs in the sale bin, as exhibited by the CEO of Target and his gross malfeasance in protecting his customers’ personal financial information. Of course, the 44 million square feet added in 2013 is down 85% from the annual increases from 2000 through 2008. The exponential growth model, built upon a never ending flow of consumer credit and an endless supply of cheap fuel, has reached its limit of growth. The titans of Wall Street and their puppets in Washington D.C. have wrung every drop of faux wealth from the dying middle class. There are nothing left but withering carcasses and bleached bones.
The impact of this retail death spiral will be vast and far reaching. A few factoids will help you understand the coming calamity:
- There are approximately 109,500 shopping centers in the United States ranging in size from the small convenience centers to the large super-regional malls.
- There are in excess of 1 million retail establishments in the United States occupying 15 billion square feet of space and generating over $4.4 trillion of annual sales. This includes 8,700 department stores, 160,000 clothing & accessory stores, and 8,600 game stores.
- U.S. shopping-center retail sales total more than $2.26 trillion, accounting for over half of all retail sales.
- The U.S. shopping-center industry directly employed over 12 million people in 2010 and indirectly generated another 5.6 million jobs in support industries. Collectively, the industry accounted for 12.7% of total U.S. employment.
- Total retail employment in 2012 totaled 14.9 million, lower than the 15.1 million employed in 2002.
- For every 100 individuals directly employed at a U.S. regional shopping center, an additional 20 to 30 jobs are supported in the community due to multiplier effects.
The collapse in foot traffic to the 109,500 shopping centers that crisscross our suburban sprawl paradise of plenty is irreversible. No amount of marketing propaganda, 50% off sales, or hot new iGadgets is going to spur a dramatic turnaround. Quarter after quarter there will be more announcements of store closings. Macys just announced the closing of 5 stores and firing of 2,500 retail workers. JC Penney just announced the closing of 33 stores and firing of 2,000 retail workers. Announcements are imminent from Sears, Radio Shack and a slew of other retailers who are beginning to see the writing on the wall. The vacancy rate will be rising in strip malls, power malls and regional malls, with the largest growing sector being ghost malls. Before long it will appear that SPACE AVAILABLE is the fastest growing retailer in America.
The reason this death spiral cannot be reversed is simply a matter of arithmetic and demographics. While arrogant hubristic retail CEOs of public big box mega-retailers added 2.7 billion retail square feet to our already over saturated market, real median household income flat lined. The advancement in retail spending was attributable solely to the $1.1 trillion increase (68%) in consumer debt and the trillion dollars of home equity extracted from castles in the sky, that later crashed down to earth. Once the Wall Street created fraud collapsed and the waves of delusion subsided, retailers have been revealed to be swimming naked. Their relentless expansion, based on exponential growth, cannibalized itself, new store construction ground to a halt, sales and profits have declined, and the inevitable closing of thousands of stores has begun. With real median household income 8% lower than it was in 2008, the collapse in retail traffic is a rational reaction by the impoverished 99%. Americans are using their credit cards to pay their real estate taxes, income taxes, and monthly utilities, since their income is lower, and their living expenses rise relentlessly, thanks to Bernanke and his Fed created inflation.
The media mouthpieces for the establishment gloss over the fact average gasoline prices in 2013 were the second highest in history. The highest average price was in 2012 and the 3rd highest average price was in 2011. These prices are 150% higher than prices in the early 2000′s. This might not matter to the likes of Jamie Dimon and Jon Corzine, but for a middle class family with two parents working and making 7.5% less than they made in 2000, it has a dramatic impact on discretionary income. The fact oil prices have risen from $25 per barrel in 2003 to $100 per barrel today has not only impacted gas prices, but utility costs, food costs, and the price of any product that needs to be transported to your local Wally World. The outrageous rise in tuition prices has been aided and abetted by the Federal government and their doling out of loans so diploma mills like the University of Phoenix can bilk clueless dupes into thinking they are on their way to an exciting new career, while leaving them jobless in their parents’ basement with a loan payment for life.
The laughable jobs recovery touted by Obama, his sycophantic minions, paid off economist shills, and the discredited corporate legacy media can be viewed appropriately in the following two charts, that reveal the false storyline being peddled to the techno-narcissistic iGadget distracted masses. There are 247 million working age Americans between the ages of 18 and 64. Only 145 million of these people are employed. Of these employed, 19 million are working part-time and 9 million are self- employed. Another 20 million are employed by the government, producing nothing and being sustained by the few remaining producers with their tax dollars. The labor participation rate is the lowest it has been since women entered the workforce in large numbers during the 1980′s. We are back to levels seen during the booming Carter years. Those peddling the drivel about retiring Baby Boomers causing the decline in the labor participation rate are either math challenged or willfully ignorant because they are being paid to be so. Once you turn 65 you are no longer counted in the work force. The percentage of those over 55 in the workforce has risen dramatically to an all-time high, as the Me Generation never saved for retirement or saw their retirement savings obliterated in the Wall Street created 2008 financial implosion.
To understand the absolute idiocy of retail CEOs across the land one must parse the employment data back to 2000. In the year 2000 the working age population of the U.S. was 213 million and 136.9 million of them were working, a record level of 64.4% of the population. There were 70 million working age Americans not in the labor force. Fourteen years later the number of working age Americans is 247 million and only 144.6 million are working. The working age population has risen by 16% and the number of employed has risen by only 5.6%. That’s quite a success story. Of course, even though median household income is 7.5% lower than it was in 2000, the government expects you to believe that 22 million Americans voluntarily left the labor force because they no longer needed a job. While the number of employed grew by 5.6% over fourteen years, the number of people who left the workforce grew by 31.1%. Over this same time frame the mega-retailers that dominate the landscape added almost 3 billion square feet of selling space, a 25% increase. A critical thinking individual might wonder how this could possibly end well for the retail genius CEOs in glistening corporate office towers from coast to coast.
This entire materialistic orgy of consumerism has been sustained solely with debt peddled by the Wall Street banking syndicate. The average American consumer met their Waterloo in 2008. Bernanke’s mission was to save bankers, billionaires and politicians. It was not to save the working middle class. You’ve been sacrificed at the altar of the .1%. The 0% interest rates were for Jamie Dimon and Lloyd Blankfein. Your credit card interest rate remained between 13% and 21%. So, while you struggle to pay bills with your declining real income, the Wall Street bankers are again generating record profits and paying themselves record bonuses. Profits are so good, they can afford to pay tens of billions in fines for their criminal acts, and still be left with billions to divvy up among their non-prosecuted criminal executives.
Bernanke and his financial elite owners have been able to rig the markets to give the appearance of normalcy, but they cannot rig the demographic time bomb that will cause the death and destruction of our illusory retail paradigm. Demographics cannot be manipulated or altered by the government or mass media. The best they can do is ignore or lie about the facts. The life cycle of a human being is utterly predictable, along with their habits across time. Those under 25 years old have very little income, therefore they have very little spending. Once a job is attained and income levels rise, spending rises along with the increased income. As the person enters old age their income declines and spending on stuff declines rapidly. The media may be ignoring the fact that annual expenditures drop by 40% for those over 65 years old from the peak spending years of 45 to 54, but it doesn’t change the fact. They also cannot change the fact that 10,000 Americans will turn 65 every day for the next sixteen years. They also can’t change the fact the average Baby Boomer has less than $50,000 saved for retirement and is up to their grey eye brows in debt.
With over 15% of all 25 to 34 year olds living in their parents’ basement and those under 25 saddled with billions in student loan debt, the traditional increase in income and spending is DOA for the millennial generation. The hardest hit demographic on the job front during the 2008 through 2014 ongoing recession has been the 45 to 54 year olds in their peak earning and spending years. Combine these demographic developments and you’ve got a perfect storm for over-built retailers and their egotistical CEOs.
The media continues to peddle the storyline of on-line sales saving the ancient bricks and mortar retailers. Again, the talking head pundits are willfully ignoring basic math. On-line sales account for 6% of total retail sales. If a dying behemoth like JC Penney announces a 20% decline in same store sales and a 20% increase in on-line sales, their total change is still negative 17.6%. And they are still left with 1,100 decaying stores, 100,000 employees, lease payments, debt payments, maintenance costs, utility costs, inventory costs, and pension costs. Their future is so bright they gotta wear a toe tag.
The decades of mal-investment in retail stores was enabled by Greenspan, Bernanke, and their Federal Reserve brethren. Their easy money policies enabled Americans to live far beyond their true means through credit card debt, auto debt, mortgage debt, and home equity debt. This false illusion of wealth and foolish spending led mega-retailers to ignore facts and spread like locusts across the suburban countryside. The debt fueled orgy has run out of steam. All that is left is the largest mountain of debt in human history, a gutted and debt laden former middle class, and thousands of empty stores in future decaying ghost malls haunting the highways and byways of suburbia.
The implications of this long and winding road to ruin are far reaching. Store closings so far have only been a ripple compared to the tsunami coming to right size the industry for a future of declining spending. Over the next five to ten years, tens of thousands of stores will be shuttered. Companies like JC Penney, Sears and Radio Shack will go bankrupt and become historical footnotes. Considering retail employment is lower today than it was in 2002 before the massive retail expansion, the future will see in excess of 1 million retail workers lose their jobs. Bernanke and the Feds have allowed real estate mall owners to roll over non-performing loans and pretend they are generating enough rental income to cover their loan obligations. As more stores go dark, this little game of extend and pretend will come to an end. Real estate developers will be going belly-up and the banking sector will be taking huge losses again. I’m sure the remaining taxpayers will gladly bailout Wall Street again. The facts are not debatable. They can be ignored by the politicians, Ivy League economists, media talking heads, and the willfully ignorant masses, but they do not cease to exist.
“Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored.” – Aldous Huxley
The Rumored Chase-Madoff Settlement Is Another Bad Joke | Matt Taibbi | Rolling Stone
The Rumored Chase-Madoff Settlement Is Another Bad Joke | Matt Taibbi | Rolling Stone.
Just under two months ago, when the $13 billion settlement for JP Morgan Chasewas coming down the chute, word leaked out that that the deal was no sure thing. Among other things, it was said that prosecutors investigating Chase’s role in the Bernie Madoff caper – Chase was Madoff’s banker – were insisting on a guilty plea to actual criminal charges, but that this was a deal-breaker for Chase.
Something had to give, and now, apparently, it has. Last week, it was reported that the state and Chase were preparing a separate $2 billion deal over the Madoff issues, a series of settlements that would also involve a deferred prosecution agreement.
The deferred-prosecution deal is a hair short of a guilty plea. The bank has to acknowledge the facts of the government’s case and pay penalties, but as has become common in the Too-Big-To-Fail arena, we once again have a situation in which all sides will agree that a serious crime has taken place, but no individual has to pay for that crime.
As University of Michigan law professor David Uhlmann noted in a Times editorial at the end of last week, the use of these deferred prosecution agreements has explodedsince the infamous Arthur Andersen case. In that affair, the company collapsed and28,000 jobs were lost after Arthur Andersen was convicted on a criminal charge related to its role in the Enron scandal. As Uhlmann wrote:
From 2004 through 2012, the Justice Department entered into 242 deferred prosecution and nonprosecution agreements with corporations; there had been just 26 in the preceding 12 years.
Since the AA mess, the state has been beyond hesitant to bring criminal charges against major employers for any reason. (The history of all of this is detailed in The Divide, a book I have coming out early next year.) The operating rationale here is concern for the “collateral consequences” of criminal prosecutions, i.e. the lost jobs that might result from bringing charges against a big company. This was apparently the thinking in the Madoff case as well. As the Times put it in its coverage of the rumored $2 billion settlement:
The government has been reluctant to bring criminal charges against large corporations, fearing that such an action could imperil a company and throw innocent employees out of work. Those fears trace to the indictment of Enron’s accounting firm, Arthur Andersen . . .
There’s only one thing to say about this “reluctance” to prosecute (and the “fear” and “concern” for lost jobs that allegedly drives it): It’s a joke.
Yes, you might very well lose some jobs if you go around indicting huge companies on criminal charges. You might even want to avoid doing so from time to time, if the company is worth saving.
But individuals? There’s absolutely no reason why the state can’t proceed against the actual people who are guilty of crimes.
If anything, the markets might react positively to that kind of news. It certainly did so in the Adelphia case, in which the government dragged cable company executives John, Timothy and Michael Rigas out of their beds and publicly frog-marched them in handcuffs on the streets of the Upper East Side at 6 a.m.
The NYSE had been on a four-day slump up until those arrests. After they hit the news, it surged to its second-biggest one-day gain in history. From the AP report on July 25, 2002:
Although stocks began the day by extending a four-day losing streak, the arrest of top Adelphia Communications Corporation executives for allegedly looting the cable TV company triggered a broad rally that intensified as the session wore on.
Of course, that was an isolated example, and the broad market rally that day didn’t save Adelphia, which had already gone bankrupt by the time of the Rigas arrests. But certainly it gave credence to the sensible argument that the markets generally would rather see the government punish criminals than not.
Anyway, it’s hard to not notice the fact that crude Ponzi schemers like Madoff (150 years)and Allen Stanford (110 years) drew enormous penalties – essentially life terms for both – while no one from any major firm has drawn any penalty at all for abetting those frauds.
That’s an enormous discrepancy, life versus nothing. But it makes an awful kind of sense. Madoff and Stanford were safe prosecutorial targets. There was no political fallout to worry about for sending up two guys who mostly bilked other rich people out of money. Also, there were no “collateral consequences” in the form of major job losses that had to be considered, just a couple of obnoxious families that would lose their jets and their ski vacations.
But most importantly, Madoff and Stanford were simple scam artists who could have come from any generation. There was nothing systemic about their crimes. It was possible to throw them in jail without exposing widespread corruption in our financial system.
That’s what’s so disturbing about this latest Justice Department cave. It underscores the increasingly obvious fact that the federal government is not interested in getting to the bottom of our financial corruption problem. They seem more to be treating bank malfeasance as a PR issue for the American financial markets that has to be managed away, instead of a corruption problem to be thoroughly investigated and fixed.
In a way, the administration seems to have the same motivation as Chase itself – as CEOJamie Dimon put it last week, “We have to get some of these things behind us so we can do our job.”
Madoff’s con was comically crude: He never executed a single trade for a client, and instead just dumped all of their money into a single checking account. To say, as Madoff himself did, that his bank “had to know” what he was up to seems a major understatement.
Remember, independent investigator Harry Markopolos figured the whole thing outyears before the Ponzi collapsed without the benefit of complete access to Madoff’s financial information. Markopolos really needed just one insight to penetrate the Madoff mystery.
“You can’t dominate all markets,” Markopolos said, years ago. “You have to have some losses.”
That this basic truth eluded both the SEC (which somehow failed to notice the world’s largest hedge fund never making a single trade) and Madoff’s own banker for years on end points to horrific systemic problems. A prosecutor who actually cared would floor it in court against everyone who made that fraud possible until he or she got to the bottom of how these things can happen.
Our response was different. We gave 150 years to the main guy, and now it seems we’re quietly taking a check to walk away from the rest of it. It’s not going to be a surprise when it happens again.
RELATED
Creeping Capital Controls At JPMorgan Chase? | Zero Hedge
Creeping Capital Controls At JPMorgan Chase? | Zero Hedge. (source)
A letter sent to a ZH reader yesterday by JPMorgan Chase, specifically its Business Banking division, reveals something disturbing. For whatever reason, JPM has decided that after November 17, 2013, it will halt the use of international wire transfers (saying it would “cancel any international wire transfers, including recurring ones”), but more importantly, limits the cash activity in associated business accounts to only $50,000 per statement cycle. “Cash activity is the combined total of cash deposits made at branches, night drops and ATMs and cash withdrawals made at branches and ATMs.”
Why? “These changes will help us more effectively manage the risks involved with these types of transactions.” So… JPM is now engaged in the risk-management of ATM withdrawals?
Reading between the lines, this sounds perilously close to capital controls to us.
While we have no way of knowing just how pervasive this novel proactive at Chase bank is and what extent of customers is affected, what is also left unsaid is what the Business Customer is supposed to do with the excess cash: we assume investing it all in stocks, and JPM especially, is permitted? But more importantly, how long before the $50,000 limit becomes $20,000, then $10,000, then $5,000 and so on, until Business Customers are advised that the bank will conduct an excess cash flow sweep every month and invest the proceeds in a mutual fund of the customer’s choosing?
Full redacted letter below:
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