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Could The Markets Crash Again? | Zero Hedge

Could The Markets Crash Again? | Zero Hedge.

This is the trillion-dollar question. From a common sense perspective, the simple answer is “absolutely!”

Since 1998, the markets have been in serial bubbles and busts, each one bigger than the last. A long-term chart of the S&P 500 shows us just how obvious this is (and yet the Fed argues it cannot see bubbles in advance?).

Moreover, we’ve been moving up the food chain in terms of the assets involved in each respective bubble and bust.

The Tech bubble was a stock bubble.

The 2007 bust was a housing bubble.

This next bust will be the sovereign bond bubble.

Why does this matter?

Because of the dreaded “C word” COLLATERAL.

In 2008, the world got a taste of what happens when a major collateral shortage hits the derivatives market. In very simple terms, the mispricing of several trillion (if not more) dollars’ worth of illiquid securities suddenly became obvious to the financial system.

This induced a collateral shortfall in the Credit Default Swap market ($50-$60 trillion) as everyone went scrambling to raise capital or demanded new, higher quality collateral on trillions of trades that turned out to be garbage.

This is why US Treasuries posted such an enormous rally in the 2008 bust (US Treasuries are the highest grade collateral out there).

Please note that Treasuries actually spiked in OCTOBER-NOVEMBER 2008… well before stocks bottomed in March 2009.

The reason?

The scrambling for collateral, NOT the alleged “flight to safety trade” that CNBC proclaims.

WHAT DOES THIS HAVE TO DO WITH TODAY?

The senior most assets backstopping the $600 trillion derivatives market are SOVEREIGN BONDS: US Treasuries, Japanese Government Bonds, German Bunds.

By keeping interest rates near zero, and pumping over $10 trillion into the financial system since 2007, the world’s Central Banks have forced investors to misprice the most prized collateral backstopping the entire derivatives system: SOVEREIGN BONDS.

SO what happens when the current bond bubble bursts and we begin to see bonds falling and yields rising?

Another collateral scramble begins… this time with a significant portion of the interest rate derivative market (over 80% of the $600 TRILLION derivative market) blowing up.

At that point, rising yields is the last thing we need to worry about. The assets backstopping a $600 trillion market themselves will be falling in value… which means that the real crisis… the crisis to which 2008 was the warm up, will be upon us.

This is why Central Banks are so committed to keeping rates low. This is also why all Central Bank policy has largely benefitted the large financial institutions (the Too Big To Fails) at the expense of Main Street…

THE CENTRAL BANKS AREN’T TRYING TO GROW THE ECONOMY, THEY’RE TRYING TO PROP UP THE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS’ DERIVATIVE TRADES.

To return to our initial question (is this just a temporary top in stocks or THE top?), THE top is what we truly have to watch out for because it will indicated that:

1)   The Grand Monetary experiment of the last five years is ending.

2)   THE Crisis (the one to which 2008 was just a warm up) is beginning.

 

For a FREE Investment Report outlining how to prepare for another market crash, swing by: www.gainspainscapital.com

 

Best Regards

 

Phoenix Capital Research

Could The Markets Crash Again? | Zero Hedge

Could The Markets Crash Again? | Zero Hedge.

This is the trillion-dollar question. From a common sense perspective, the simple answer is “absolutely!”

Since 1998, the markets have been in serial bubbles and busts, each one bigger than the last. A long-term chart of the S&P 500 shows us just how obvious this is (and yet the Fed argues it cannot see bubbles in advance?).

Moreover, we’ve been moving up the food chain in terms of the assets involved in each respective bubble and bust.

The Tech bubble was a stock bubble.

The 2007 bust was a housing bubble.

This next bust will be the sovereign bond bubble.

Why does this matter?

Because of the dreaded “C word” COLLATERAL.

In 2008, the world got a taste of what happens when a major collateral shortage hits the derivatives market. In very simple terms, the mispricing of several trillion (if not more) dollars’ worth of illiquid securities suddenly became obvious to the financial system.

This induced a collateral shortfall in the Credit Default Swap market ($50-$60 trillion) as everyone went scrambling to raise capital or demanded new, higher quality collateral on trillions of trades that turned out to be garbage.

This is why US Treasuries posted such an enormous rally in the 2008 bust (US Treasuries are the highest grade collateral out there).

Please note that Treasuries actually spiked in OCTOBER-NOVEMBER 2008… well before stocks bottomed in March 2009.

The reason?

The scrambling for collateral, NOT the alleged “flight to safety trade” that CNBC proclaims.

WHAT DOES THIS HAVE TO DO WITH TODAY?

The senior most assets backstopping the $600 trillion derivatives market are SOVEREIGN BONDS: US Treasuries, Japanese Government Bonds, German Bunds.

By keeping interest rates near zero, and pumping over $10 trillion into the financial system since 2007, the world’s Central Banks have forced investors to misprice the most prized collateral backstopping the entire derivatives system: SOVEREIGN BONDS.

SO what happens when the current bond bubble bursts and we begin to see bonds falling and yields rising?

Another collateral scramble begins… this time with a significant portion of the interest rate derivative market (over 80% of the $600 TRILLION derivative market) blowing up.

At that point, rising yields is the last thing we need to worry about. The assets backstopping a $600 trillion market themselves will be falling in value… which means that the real crisis… the crisis to which 2008 was the warm up, will be upon us.

This is why Central Banks are so committed to keeping rates low. This is also why all Central Bank policy has largely benefitted the large financial institutions (the Too Big To Fails) at the expense of Main Street…

THE CENTRAL BANKS AREN’T TRYING TO GROW THE ECONOMY, THEY’RE TRYING TO PROP UP THE FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS’ DERIVATIVE TRADES.

To return to our initial question (is this just a temporary top in stocks or THE top?), THE top is what we truly have to watch out for because it will indicated that:

1)   The Grand Monetary experiment of the last five years is ending.

2)   THE Crisis (the one to which 2008 was just a warm up) is beginning.

 

For a FREE Investment Report outlining how to prepare for another market crash, swing by: www.gainspainscapital.com

 

Best Regards

 

Phoenix Capital Research

Spanish ‘Anti-Austerity’ Protesters “Sick Of This System They Call Democracy” | Zero Hedge

Spanish ‘Anti-Austerity’ Protesters “Sick Of This System They Call Democracy” | Zero Hedge.

logo

“I’m here to fight for my children’s future,” exclaims one father as Spaniards rallied in Madrid against poverty and EU-imposed austerity. As Reuters reports, the largely peaceful protest latermarred by violent clashes in which police fired rubber bullets. The so-called “Dignity Marches” brought hundreds of thousands to the capital with banners making it clear what their feelings about record 26% unemployment were – “Bread, jobs and housing for everyone” and “Corruption and robbery, Spain’s trademark.” One protester summed up the people’s views of the government,“I’m sick of this system they call democracy… I want things to change.”

 

 

 

Via Reuters,

The so-called “Dignity Marches” brought hundreds of thousands to the capital, according to estimates of Reuters witnesses. Travelling from all over Spain, they were protesting in support of more than 160 different causes, including jobs, housing, health, education and an end to poverty.

 

 

…Spaniards rallied in Madrid on Saturday against poverty and EU-imposed austerity in a largely peaceful protest later marred by violent clashes in which police fired rubber bullets.

 

 

Some protesters started to throw stones and bottles at the large numbers of riot police present and attacked cashpoints and hoardings. The police fired rubber bullets to disperse them, according to video footage seen by Reuters.

Central government representative Cristina Cifuentes said 19 protesters had been arrested and 50 police officers had been injured, one of them very badly, in the clashes.

Once again the issue is government corruption combined with austerity (or at least slowing growth in spending to be perfectly clear) – a combination that we have discussed numerous times tends to end in social unrest…

A housing bubble burst more than five years ago, forcing a 41-billion euro ($56 billion) bailout of Spain’s banks, squeezing homeowners and throwing millions out of work.

 

 

The government introduced public sector austerity to whittle down the deficit, provoking widespread anger amongst middle- and low-income families as dozens of cases of corruption in the ruling class are investigated by judges.

The people’s feelings were clear as the OECD says the economic crisis has hit Spain’s poor harder than in any other country in the euro region.

Banners urged the conservative government not to pay its international debts and to tackle Spain’s chronically high unemployment of 26 percent.

 

Bread, jobs and housing for everyone“, read one banner, “Corruption and robbery, Spain’s trademark,” said another.

 

I’m here to fight for my children’s future,” said Michael Nadeau, a 44-year-old entrepreneur.

 

For those who are in power we’re just numbers. They value money more than they value people,” he said, shouting to be heard above the din of chanting, whistling and drumming.

 

“(I’m here because) I’m sick of this system they call democracy,” said Jose Luis Arteaga, a 58-year-old teacher whose wage has been cut 20 percent. “I want things to change.”

It seems that almost record low bond yields and high stock market levels did not appease the people of Spain either…Time for that IMG income inequality equalizing wealth redsitriburion it would seem…

Spanish 'Anti-Austerity' Protesters "Sick Of This System They Call Democracy" | Zero Hedge

Spanish ‘Anti-Austerity’ Protesters “Sick Of This System They Call Democracy” | Zero Hedge.

logo

“I’m here to fight for my children’s future,” exclaims one father as Spaniards rallied in Madrid against poverty and EU-imposed austerity. As Reuters reports, the largely peaceful protest latermarred by violent clashes in which police fired rubber bullets. The so-called “Dignity Marches” brought hundreds of thousands to the capital with banners making it clear what their feelings about record 26% unemployment were – “Bread, jobs and housing for everyone” and “Corruption and robbery, Spain’s trademark.” One protester summed up the people’s views of the government,“I’m sick of this system they call democracy… I want things to change.”

 

 

 

Via Reuters,

The so-called “Dignity Marches” brought hundreds of thousands to the capital, according to estimates of Reuters witnesses. Travelling from all over Spain, they were protesting in support of more than 160 different causes, including jobs, housing, health, education and an end to poverty.

 

 

…Spaniards rallied in Madrid on Saturday against poverty and EU-imposed austerity in a largely peaceful protest later marred by violent clashes in which police fired rubber bullets.

 

 

Some protesters started to throw stones and bottles at the large numbers of riot police present and attacked cashpoints and hoardings. The police fired rubber bullets to disperse them, according to video footage seen by Reuters.

Central government representative Cristina Cifuentes said 19 protesters had been arrested and 50 police officers had been injured, one of them very badly, in the clashes.

Once again the issue is government corruption combined with austerity (or at least slowing growth in spending to be perfectly clear) – a combination that we have discussed numerous times tends to end in social unrest…

A housing bubble burst more than five years ago, forcing a 41-billion euro ($56 billion) bailout of Spain’s banks, squeezing homeowners and throwing millions out of work.

 

 

The government introduced public sector austerity to whittle down the deficit, provoking widespread anger amongst middle- and low-income families as dozens of cases of corruption in the ruling class are investigated by judges.

The people’s feelings were clear as the OECD says the economic crisis has hit Spain’s poor harder than in any other country in the euro region.

Banners urged the conservative government not to pay its international debts and to tackle Spain’s chronically high unemployment of 26 percent.

 

Bread, jobs and housing for everyone“, read one banner, “Corruption and robbery, Spain’s trademark,” said another.

 

I’m here to fight for my children’s future,” said Michael Nadeau, a 44-year-old entrepreneur.

 

For those who are in power we’re just numbers. They value money more than they value people,” he said, shouting to be heard above the din of chanting, whistling and drumming.

 

“(I’m here because) I’m sick of this system they call democracy,” said Jose Luis Arteaga, a 58-year-old teacher whose wage has been cut 20 percent. “I want things to change.”

It seems that almost record low bond yields and high stock market levels did not appease the people of Spain either…Time for that IMG income inequality equalizing wealth redsitriburion it would seem…

Chinese "1%" Threaten Lawsuit Against Canada For Shutting Visa-For-Cash Scheme | Zero Hedge

Chinese “1%” Threaten Lawsuit Against Canada For Shutting Visa-For-Cash Scheme | Zero Hedge.

When Canadian authorities scrapped their ‘investor visa’ scheme a month ago, we warned that the nation was removing a critical pillar of support for its real-estate bubble market. However, with an estimated 45,000 Chinese millionaires still in the queue, the wealthy hoping to get their cash out of China are not happy. As The South China Morning Post reportsa group of wealthy mainlanders has criticized the Canadian government for scrapping its investor visa scheme and are threatening legal action if the decision is not overturned – arguing “we had set aside a lot of money to meet the investment requirements and over the years passed up on many opportunities… A refund of our application fees will not make up for all the preparation put in.”

The Canada real estate bubble is alive (and well enough for now)…

Deutsche Banks’s house-price-to-rent index says Canada has the most expensive housing market in the world – 60% over-valued…

 

Canada, for example, is very open to foreign investors, which means that in an age of unprecedented global liquidity cash-rich wealthy individuals who are looking for places to park their excess funds can do so in its housing market far more easily than in Japan, with its closed system. “

As it’s home price index hardly missed a beat while the US plunged… (different scales but point is to illustrate drastic difference when financial crisis started – and where the liquidity went…)

 

But the scrapping of the visa scheme threatens to remove a key pillar from that:

The scheme has allowed nearly 100,000 wealthy Hongkongers and mainland Chinese to move across the Pacific since 1986.

But as The South China Morning Post reports, the Chinese are not happy,

A group of wealthy mainlanders has criticised the Canadian government for scrapping its investor visa scheme and are threatening legal action if the decision is not overturned.

More than 10 people who had applied for the visa met with reporters in Beijing yesterday to air their grievances. The group said they had wasted years of time, effort and money preparing to move to North America.

An estimated 45,500 Chinese millionaires who were still in the queue for visas will have their applications “eliminated” and their fees returned.

“We have set aside a lot of money to meet the investment requirements and over the years passed up on many opportunities,” he said.

Moving to Canada has been a dream of mine since witnessing what happened in 1989 as a student over there on this main thoroughfare,” he said, pointing to a road passing Tiananmen Square where the crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators took place.

I thought Canada was a place that underpins justice, trust and democracy, but the abrupt, unilateral decision to scrap the scheme has left us very, very disappointed,” he said. “A refund of our application fees will not make up for all the preparation put in.”

Larry Wang, the president of the immigration consultancy firm that organised the meeting with reporters, said he would help applicants take legal action if the decision was not overturned.

“A sovereign country, of course, has the right to make such a move, but it’s unfathomable how a democratic and human-rights-respecting country like Canada just cut off applications like that, without regard to those who’ve been preparing for the move for years,”

In other words, we want to get our money out of this controlled nation and are upset that we were not higher on the list… especially now that we see local authorities starting to tamp down the bubble of local real estate that we have previously speculated in…

Chinese “1%” Threaten Lawsuit Against Canada For Shutting Visa-For-Cash Scheme | Zero Hedge

Chinese “1%” Threaten Lawsuit Against Canada For Shutting Visa-For-Cash Scheme | Zero Hedge.

When Canadian authorities scrapped their ‘investor visa’ scheme a month ago, we warned that the nation was removing a critical pillar of support for its real-estate bubble market. However, with an estimated 45,000 Chinese millionaires still in the queue, the wealthy hoping to get their cash out of China are not happy. As The South China Morning Post reportsa group of wealthy mainlanders has criticized the Canadian government for scrapping its investor visa scheme and are threatening legal action if the decision is not overturned – arguing “we had set aside a lot of money to meet the investment requirements and over the years passed up on many opportunities… A refund of our application fees will not make up for all the preparation put in.”

The Canada real estate bubble is alive (and well enough for now)…

Deutsche Banks’s house-price-to-rent index says Canada has the most expensive housing market in the world – 60% over-valued…

 

Canada, for example, is very open to foreign investors, which means that in an age of unprecedented global liquidity cash-rich wealthy individuals who are looking for places to park their excess funds can do so in its housing market far more easily than in Japan, with its closed system. “

As it’s home price index hardly missed a beat while the US plunged… (different scales but point is to illustrate drastic difference when financial crisis started – and where the liquidity went…)

 

But the scrapping of the visa scheme threatens to remove a key pillar from that:

The scheme has allowed nearly 100,000 wealthy Hongkongers and mainland Chinese to move across the Pacific since 1986.

But as The South China Morning Post reports, the Chinese are not happy,

A group of wealthy mainlanders has criticised the Canadian government for scrapping its investor visa scheme and are threatening legal action if the decision is not overturned.

More than 10 people who had applied for the visa met with reporters in Beijing yesterday to air their grievances. The group said they had wasted years of time, effort and money preparing to move to North America.

An estimated 45,500 Chinese millionaires who were still in the queue for visas will have their applications “eliminated” and their fees returned.

“We have set aside a lot of money to meet the investment requirements and over the years passed up on many opportunities,” he said.

Moving to Canada has been a dream of mine since witnessing what happened in 1989 as a student over there on this main thoroughfare,” he said, pointing to a road passing Tiananmen Square where the crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators took place.

I thought Canada was a place that underpins justice, trust and democracy, but the abrupt, unilateral decision to scrap the scheme has left us very, very disappointed,” he said. “A refund of our application fees will not make up for all the preparation put in.”

Larry Wang, the president of the immigration consultancy firm that organised the meeting with reporters, said he would help applicants take legal action if the decision was not overturned.

“A sovereign country, of course, has the right to make such a move, but it’s unfathomable how a democratic and human-rights-respecting country like Canada just cut off applications like that, without regard to those who’ve been preparing for the move for years,”

In other words, we want to get our money out of this controlled nation and are upset that we were not higher on the list… especially now that we see local authorities starting to tamp down the bubble of local real estate that we have previously speculated in…

Guest Post: The Merger Of State And Commerce | Zero Hedge

Guest Post: The Merger Of State And Commerce | Zero Hedge.

Submitted by Stephen Merrill, editor of the Alaska Freedom News. He served in the Navy Judge Advocate General’s Corps and as a Navy Reserve Intelligence Officer

The Merger of State and Commerce

The Leviathan’s Thumb

Many observers of the US economy have come to the realization there are now few truly free markets left within 21st Century Western capitalism.

It seems all investments today are controlled to unfair advantage in some large way by the governments and financial firms operating the markets, especially the market in money itself.  The newly-invented powers of the central banks to buy anything, to fund any bailout, can reach into any area of the economy, either to grant large favors or to inflict great pain, typically with the cooperation of the too-big-to-jail banks that own the Federal Reserve and its policies.

The precious metals market is a good example of the Fed and its henchmen inflicting pain.  The Western paper gold market has been the long-used tool of Leviathan to bludgeon the world’s only true money.

In one of the Fed’s generous ways the second US housing bubble has been inflated from a river of counterfeit money and a wet-blanket of negative interest rates.  The QE Forever giveaway to the Fed’s banker friends through buying toxic mortgages at full price charges on.

A Swinging Pendulum

It is nothing at all new for a nation to defy the basic economic principle that allows for ever increasing wealth benefiting all layers of society.  In a word it is liberty.

The underlying concepts of capitalism were best set out by British author Adam Smith.  Smith postulated it is the magic of the invisible hand of a free market that best distributes economic resources and best energizes the people and industry and innovation.   Smith’s signature work The Wealth of Nations was written well over two hundred years ago.

The magic of Smith’s free market proved to be the model for the first sustained, rapid economic growth in global history, since at least the early Roman Empire.  It seems, whatever its academic merit in Ivy League halls, general economic liberty has clearly proven to be the best way to serve all society, given how humans themselves are created, as individuals each seeking a good life and secure family.

European medieval economics between the Romans and  the 18th Century Industrial Revolution showed how the vulture practices of monarchs and nobility eliminated even the hope for economic growth or of ever fostering a middle-class, while stifling innovation at every turn.  The private institutions empowered by law in that time were the lesser nobility and the Catholic Church.

With the Enlightenment period led by writers like Adam Smith, John Locke and Edmund Burke, the grip of elitism in commerce in Britain and France and beyond began to be replaced by private enterprise and capital quite completely.   Individual rewards for productivity and innovation and risk-taking became the driving force for economic decision-making, no longer centered on the whim of the lord or his knights as things have largely returned to in today’s fascist economy.   It was the belief in bottom-up capitalism in its rawest form.

The Europeans had suddenly become a juggernaut of innovation and growth after many centuries of stagnation.  The United States later in the cycle became the signal success of free-market capitalism.

In the wake of this revolution in society, the 19th Century saw the fastest economic growth in human history, all fueled by economic liberty.  For the first time a large prosperous middle-class of workers came into existence in many countries, no longer just the rulers lording over the peasants.

The same economic revolution is happening across most of Asia during our 20th and 21st Centuries.  Just one example, tiny city-state Singapore has proven once again the amazing achievements for all citizens from unbridled capitalism.  Singapore has risen from post-WWII devastation to the top of the world economic ladder without ever asking for or accepting foreign aid from any nation.  Singapore is the heir of Ancient Athens, the first free city, the founder of monetary silver.

Adam Smith’s Lassie Faire capitalism has become though the ancient, barbaric relic in our modern fiat money Western world economy, especially in America.  No living American has experienced an economic system that can be fairly described as general capitalism.

The US has now what is called a “mixed economy” involving many “public-private partnerships” and “professional self-regulation” and “social programs”.  These are modern phrases that explain the slow return to feudal ways.

Monopolies of political power or of markets yield huge profits for the few over generations without much having to change a thing.  Monopoly power is a distant mirror of feudal nobility.  It operates in both the public and the private sector and so often in direct combination with each other.  Power not only corrupts: power wins, power stagnates, power destroys.

The Money-Changers Above the Law

Then there are the market traders in a fiat, debt-fueled world.

Whenever free markets can be conned, fixed or disrupted there is a lot of money to be made in the process. There always has been short-term gain for those insiders who manage to fleece the public by harming the secure, uninterrupted flow of goods and services and finance and information.

Most economic transactions, at their base, rely on a large element of trust.  Deceit punishes trust to self-advantage.  Deceit harms the economic market itself, beyond the impact of the con-jobs in play.  A marketplace chocked with deceit is a fraud itself, the absence of the rule of law.  Only the law can fully deal with deceit in order to allow a free marketplace to even exist.

The more hidden processes used by modern bankers and traders to obtain unearned wealth is little different in its societal effects than robbing a convenience store is, or robbing hundreds of thousands of convenience stores actually, given the numbers typically involved in white collar crime at the highest levels.

The counterfeiting of the private-public central banks, that strangles the middle class to further enrich the wealthy, is daily theft on the grandest scale.  Counterfeiting by central banks now affects almost every investment decision.

In the end, it is little different than the peasants always giving a one-third share of their crops to the royal duke just because the King says so.

The Rule of the Cartels on Main Street

This collectivist syndrome in the United States is far from limited to the Congress-buying Wall Street cartel and the subject of finance.  The same general form of corruption permeates an increasing number of professions and businesses.  Even tattoo artists and legal process servers have earned their guild status by law in many states, hoping to, like others do, choke off low-price competition in their field.

The national health-care industry seems to have become almost a single cartel empowered by federal spending.  The Obamacare spending bonanza is designed to pay off every big healthcare interest in sight and the health-insurance industry to boot.

The provision of education in the United States has long been the fiefdom of rigged markets and systems.

The socialism model rules primary and secondary education almost alone.  Even 40-years of abject failure in effectively educating students has failed to dent the nationwide taxpayer spending spree for this state-imposed monopoly rule in the most crucial work there is for society.  Alaskans today pay over $18,000 per student for K-12 education.  Test scores are well below those of students from some third-world countries.

A mix of public and private institutions rule US higher education as a single-minded oligarchy.  This cartel is primarily empowered by federal spending in the form of student loans.  The younger generations are saddled now with a trillion dollar in debt to repay college tuition and fees that no longer deliver a good job.

The lawyer guild has controlled its market for professional services in every state in the union for generations.  Market-fixing remains one of the central goals of bar association rules:  ditto for the physician guild.

Part private business organization, part government institution, part professional guild, part bank regulator, entirely self-interested, the creature from Jekyll Island, the Federal Reserve, has become the go to mechanism for replacing free markets with aristocratic privilege.  He who issues the money controls the nation the phrase goes.

The Unifying Force

But the ultimate overarching rigged system in the US is the effective monopoly by two private political cartels sharing the same basic agenda, the Democratic Party and the Republican Party.  As a consequence of these two faces of modern fascism, the nation and its liberty has been for sale for more than two generations now.

This welfare-warfare party, one bent on ever expanding centralized power, has owned the Congress and most of the Presidents going back to WWI and the founding of the Federal Reserve.  The success in keeping the “two-party system” in place has had far more to do with the special privileges granted by law to Democratic and Republican candidates than to any good reason for a lack of meaningful political competition.

What is the fundamental error of governance made in all of this modern injustice?

It is the practice of the government surrendering open elections and free markets to officially anointed regulatory systems that then form an unchallengeable oligopoly within their bailiwick.

In the case of public regulation rather than a guild system, the regulated industry invariably become the effective master of the industry regulators, like Democrats and Republicans have for instance in US politics.  Within any regulated business, the temptation of well-heeled collegiality from industry always wins over government regulators eventually or, more often, the people that appoint the regulators.

With professional guilds in power its officials take over entirely for the government in controlling the business and its participants.  Professional guilds as a rule disconnect their own disciplinary code and market-rigging from the courts as much as possible, the place where everyone else is required to go for such matters.

Self-regulation for a profession invariably becomes mostly a program for less competition for guild members.  It freezes the present elite in their power and position, a never ending goal of humanity it seems.

In a wider sense, the officially anointed protector of the public safety, whether it is the state bureaucrat or a private guild official, over time becomes an enabler of reduced accountability for wrongdoing, a way to keep standards low for the industry or service by locking out competition and even the law, to the extent possible.

The US economy has regressed to feudal ways like these in such force that a variety of private guilds, cartels, unions and oligopolies exercise, officially or in practice, many of the powers of government itself, especially those powers assumed by but never granted by a constitution to the government.  It has all become a part of the “the law”.

The Revolution Looms Anew

Today’s economic model was best summed up by dictator Benito Mussolini in one short sentence: “Fascism … is the perfect merger of power between the corporations and the state”.

But tyranny also has its life-cycle within the balance between the past and the future.  Once the past becomes far too much of a millstone for the future generations to carry any longer, governments fall and debt and servitude recede.

Empires can fall largely without violence and allow a new, freer system to emerge, as most of the satellite states of the Soviet Union achieved.   Or the legacy of fallen empire becomes violent chaos followed by renewed oppression, like the French Revolution.

This bottom-up style revolution is happening to nations across our 21st Century.  The future lies in the balance.  The bell tolls for all Western nations, too.

So, in the United States, it seems, liberty will have its chance again before too long.

Did Canada Just Pop It’s Housing Bubble? | Zero Hedge

Did Canada Just Pop It’s Housing Bubble? | Zero Hedge.

The Canadian economy is rolling over and their recent jobs situation is worse than the US (and it’s always cold weather-y up there?!) but the last great pillar of the ‘recovery’ in Canada is perhaps about to get crushed. As the WSJ noted recentlyCanada’s housing market is the most expensive in the world (60% over-valued by historical standards) and one simple reason explains it – Canada has been very open to foreign investors, which means that in an age of unprecedented global liquidity cash-rich wealthy individuals who are looking for places to park their excess funds can do so in its housing market. Until now… As SCMP reports, Canada’s government has announced that it is scrapping its controversial investor visa scheme, which has allowed waves of rich Hongkongers and mainland Chinese to immigrate since 1986. Soft landing?

Deutsche Banks’s house-price-to-rent index says Canada has the most expensive housing market in the world – 60% over-valued…

Canada, for example, is very open to foreign investors, which means that in an age of unprecedented global liquidity cash-rich wealthy individuals who are looking for places to park their excess funds can do so in its housing market far more easily than in Japan, with its closed system. ”

As it’s home price index hardly missed a beat while the US plunged… (different scales but point is to illustrate drastic difference when financial crisis started – and where the liquidity went…)

Via The South China Morning Post,

Canada’s government has announced that it is scrapping its controversial investor visa scheme, which has allowed waves of rich Hongkongers and mainland Chinese to immigrate since 1986.

The surprise announcement was made in Finance Minister Jim Flaherty’s budget, which was delivered to parliament in Ottawa on Tuesday afternoon local time. Tens of thousands of Chinese millionaires in the queue will reportedly have their applications scrapped and their application fees returned.

The decision came less than a week after the South China Morning Post published a series of investigative reports into the controversial 28-year-old scheme.

The Post revealed how the scheme spun out of control when Canada’s Hong Kong consulate was overwhelmed by a massive influx of applications from mainland millionaires.Applications to the scheme were frozen in 2012 as a result, as immigration staff struggled to clear the backlog.

In recent years, significant progress has been made to better align the immigration system with Canada’s economic needs. The current immigrant investor program stands out as an exception to this success,” Flaherty’s budget papers said.

For decades, it has significantly undervalued Canadian permanent residence, providing a pathway to Canadian citizenship in exchange for a guaranteed loan that is significantly less than our peer countries require,” it read.

Under the scheme, would-be migrants worth a minimum of C$1.6 million (HK$11.3 million) loaned the government C$800,000 interest free for a period of five years. The simplicity and low relative cost of the risk-free scheme made it the world’s most popular wealth migration program.

A parallel investor migration scheme run by Quebec still remains open. Many Chinese migrants use the alternative scheme to get into Canada via the French-speaking province and then move elsewhere in Canada. The federal government has previously pledged to crack down on what it said was a fraudulent practice.

Flaherty also announced yesterday the scrapping of a smaller economic migration scheme for entrepreneurs.

All told, 59,000 investor applicants and 7,000 entrepreneurs will have their applications returned, Postmedia News reported. Seventy per cent of the backlog, as of last January, was Chinese, suggesting more than 46,000 mainlanders will be affected by yesterday’s announcements.

The Immigrant Investor Program, which has brought about 185,000 migrants to Canada, was instrumental in facilitating an exodus of rich Hongkongers in the wake of the 1989 Tiananmen massacre and in the run-up to the handover. More than 30,000 Hongkongers immigrated using the scheme, though SAR applications have dwindled since 1997.

So, the Canadian government is looking a liquidity-splooging gift-horse in the mouth and saying “no, thanks” – an impressive decision to take given the potential weakness in the real economy… we’ll see how long it takes for the decision to be unwound or altered…

Australia to suffer biggest property collapse since Great Depression – Yahoo!7

Australia to suffer biggest property collapse since Great Depression – Yahoo!7.

7NEWSFebruary 7, 2014, 5:57 pm

The expert who predicted the global financial crisis has a dire warning for Australia’s property markets.

Melbourne, Sydney, Brisbane and Perth are on the verge of the most violent property collapse since the great depression, economist guru Harry Dent has said.

Speaking exclusively with 7News, the author, economist and property guru says as an entire country, Australia is the most over-valued real estate in the developed world.

“I think it’s probably going to go down at least 30 percent to kind of take off the bubble, [and] I think 50 percent down the road is even more likely,” Mr Dent said.

After London, Melbourne and Sydney are the most expensive cities in the world when housing prices are compared to earnings.

On average, Australians are shelling out more than ten times their annual income on a home.

“[Over] the next three to six years, we’re going to have a bigger GFC, we’re going to have the next Great Depression,” Mr Dent said.

“I think the most dangerous years are 2014 and 2015,” he said.

The American, who begins his Secure the Future speaking tour this week, was lambasted when he predicted the collapse of the Japanese economy when most economists said it would overtake the US as the biggest economy in the world.

He also accurately predicted the timing and severity of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis.

“An everyday person with a million dollar mortgage is going to go underwater,” Mr Dent said.

A lot of people are going to have a house worth less than their mortgage, and they apparently will not be able to refinance.

Leading analyst from Residex John Edwards disagrees with Harry Dent, and says if anything, our market is getting stronger.

Dent says his predictions are based on long-terms statistics on how Australians live and spend, and data from governments worldwide.

He says the key is to look to China, where almost a quarter of all new properties are sitting empty, and that cities like Shanghai could lose 85 per cent of their value.

“All it takes is something to burst the bubble,” he said.

“If China blows it’s going to have a much bigger impact than the 2008 GFC.”

China’s Households “Massively” Exposed To Housing Bubble “That Has To Burst” | Zero Hedge

China’s Households “Massively” Exposed To Housing Bubble “That Has To Burst” | Zero Hedge.

The topic of China’s real estate bubble, its ghost cities, and its emerging middle class – who now have enough money to invest and have piled into houses not stocks – and have been dubbed “fang nu” orhousing slaves (a reference to the lifetime of work needed to pay off their debts); is not a new one here but, as Bloomberg reports, the latest report from economist Gan Li shows China’s households are massively exposed to an oversupplied property market.

 

The Chinese have piled their savings into real estate…

 

not stocks (like Americans)…

 

 

But the inevitable bursting of the bubble is a problem the PBOC can’t run from forever…

Via Bloomberg’s Tom Orlik,

China’s households are massively exposed to an oversupplied property market according to a new survey by economist Gan Li, professor at Southwestern University of Finance and Economics in Chengdu, Sichuan and at Texas A&M University in College Station, Texas.

 

A 2013 survey of 28,000 households and 100,000 individuals provides striking insights on the level and distribution of household income and wealth, with far reaching implications for the economy.About 65 percent of China’s household wealth is invested in real estate, said Gan. Ninety percent of households already own homes, and 42 percent of demand in the first half of 2012 came from buyers who already owned at least one property.

 

“The Chinese housing market is clearly oversupplied,” said Gan. “Existing housing stock is sufficient for every household to own one home, and we are supplying about 15 million new units a year. The housing bubble has to burst. No one knows when.” When it does, the hit to household wealth will have a long term negative impact on consumption, he said.

China’s household income is significantly higher than the official data suggest. Average urban disposable income was 30,600 yuan in 2012, according to the survey. That’s 24 percent higher than in the National Bureau of Statistics’ data. These results suggest official statistics may overstate China’s structural imbalances, which shows household income as an extremely low share of GDP.

Many wealthy households understate their income in the official data. China’s richest 10 percent of urban households enjoy an average disposable income of 128,000 yuan per capita a year, according to Gan’s survey. That’s twice as high as the same measure in the NBS report. The poorest 20 percent get by on about 3,000 yuan, pointing to significantly greater wealth inequality than in the U.S. or other OECD countries.

The wealth disparity helps explain China’s imbalance between high savings and investment and low consumption. Rich households have a significantly higher savings rate than poor households. The wealthiest 5 percent save 72 percent of their income, compared with the national average of 36 percent and 40 percent of households with no savings at all in 2012.

The solution to boosting consumption is income redistribution,” said Gan. “Compared to the U.S. and other OECD countries, China has done very little in this area.” The survey also provides insights into China’s widespread informal lending. A third of households are involved in peer-to-peer lending, according to Gan.

Zero-interest loans between friends make up the majority. Interest, when charged, is typically high, averaging a 34 percent annual rate. That underscores the usurious cost of credit for businesses and households excluded from the formal banking sector.

 

And yet the bailout of one trust product has the world declaring that China is fixed again!??

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