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The Shale Oil Party Is Ending, Phibro’s Andy Hall Warns | Zero Hedge

The Shale Oil Party Is Ending, Phibro’s Andy Hall Warns | Zero Hedge.

Phibro’s (currently Astenback Capital Management) Andy Hall knows a thing or two about the oil market – and even if he doesn’t (and it was all luck), his views are sufficiently respected to influence the industrial groupthink. Which is why for anyone interested in where one of the foremost oil market movers sees oil supply over the next decade, here are his full thoughts from his latest letter to Astenback investors. Of particular note: Hall’s warning to all the shale oil optimists: “According to the DOE data, for Bakken and Eagle Ford the legacy well decline rate has been running at either side of 6.5 per cent per month… Production from new wells has been running at about 90,000 bpd per month per field meaning net growth in production is 25,000 bpd per month. It will become smaller as output grows and that’s why ceteris paribus growth in output for both fields will continue to slow over the coming years. When all the easily drillable sites are exhausted – at the latest sometime shortly after 2020 – production from these two fields will decline.”

From Astenback Capital Management

Oil Supply

The speed with which an interim agreement was reached with Iran was unexpected. Equally unexpected was the immediate relaxation of sanctions relating to access to banking and insurance coverage. This will potentially result in an increase in Iranian exports of perhaps 400,000 bpd. Beyond that it is hard to predict what might happen. The next set of negotiations will certainly be much more difficult. The fundamental differences of view that were papered over in the recent talks need to be fully resolved and that will be extremely difficult to do. Also, Iran’s physical capacity to export much more additional oil is in doubt because its aging oil fields have been starved of investment.

As to Libya, it seems unlikely that things will get better there anytime soon. The unrest and political discontent seems to be worsening. Whilst some oil exports are likely to resume – particularly from the western part of the country (Tripolitania), overall levels of oil exports from Libya in 2014 will be well below those of 2013.

Iraqi exports should rise by about 300,000 bpd in 2014 as new export facilities come into operation. But there is a meaningful risk of interruptions due to the sectarian strife in Iraq that increasingly borders on civil war. Saudi Arabia’s displeasure at the West’s quasi rapprochement with Iran is likely to add fuel to the fire in the Sunni-Shia fight for supremacy throughout the region.

If gains in 2014 of exports from Iran are assumed to offset losses from Libya, potential net additional exports from OPEC would amount to whatever increment materializes from Iraq. Saudi Arabia has been pumping oil at close to its practical (if not hypothetical) maximum capacity of 10.5 million bpd for much of 2013. It could therefore easily accommodate any additional output from Iraq in order to maintain a Brent price of $100 – assuming it wants to do so and that it becomes necessary to do so. Still, $100 is meaningfully lower than $110+ which is where the benchmark grade has on average been trading for the past three years.

So much for OPEC, what about non-OPEC supply? Most forecasters predict this to grow by about 1.4 million bpd with the largest contribution – about 1.1 million bpd – coming from the U.S. and Canada and the balance primarily from Brazil and Kazakhstan. Brazil’s oil production has been forecast to grow every year for the past four or five years and each time it has disappointed. Indeed Petrobras has struggled to prevent output declining. Perhaps 2014 is the year they finally turn things around but also, perhaps not. The Kashagan field in Kazakhstan briefly came on stream last September – almost a decade behind schedule. It was shut down again almost immediately because of technical problems. The assumption is that the consortium of companies operating the field will finally achieve full production in 2014.

Canada’s contribution to supply growth is perhaps the most predictable as it comes from additions to tar sands capacity whose technology is tried and tested. Provided planned production additions come on stream according to schedule in 2014, these should amount to about 200,000 bpd.

Most forecasters expect the U.S. to add 900,000 bpd to oil supplies in 2014, largely driven by the continuing boom in shale oil. That would be lower than the increment seen this year or in 2012 but market sentiment seems to be discounting a surprise to the upside. As mentioned above, many companies have been creating a stir with talk of exciting new prospects beyond Bakken and Eagle Ford which so far have accounted for nearly all the growth in shale oil production. Indeed at first blush there seem to be so many potential prospects it is hard to keep track of them all. Even within the Bakken and Eagle Ford, talk of down-spacing, faster well completions through pad drilling and “super wells” with very high initial rates of production resulting from the use of new completion techniques have created an impression of a cornucopia of unending growth and that impression weighs on forward WTI prices.

But part of what is going on here is the industry’s desire to maintain a level of buzz consistent with rising equity valuations and capital inflows to the sector.

The hot play now is one of the oldest in America; the Permian basin. A handful of companies with large acreage in the region are making very optimistic assessments of their prospects there. These are based on making long term projections based on a few months’ production data from a handful of wells. We wonder whether data gets cherry picked for investor presentations. We hear about the great wells but not about the disappointing ones. Furthermore, many companies are pointing to higher initial rates of production without taking into account the higher depletion rates which go hand in hand with these higher start-up rates. EOG, the biggest and the best of the shale oil players recently asserted that the Permian – a play in which it is actively investing – will be much more difficult to develop than were either the Bakken or Eagle Ford. EOG figures horizontal oil wells in the Permian have productivity little more than a third of those in Eagle Ford.EOG has further stated on various occasions that the rapid growth in shale oil production is already behind us.

In part this is simple math. The DOE recently started publishing short term production forecasts for each of the major shale plays. They project monthly production increments based on rig counts and observed rig productivity (new wells per rig per month multiplied by production per rig) and subtracting from it the decline in production from legacy wells. According to the DOE data, for Bakken and Eagle Ford the legacy well decline rate has been running at either side of 6.5 per cent per month. When these fields were each producing 500,000 bpd that legacy decline therefore amounted to 33,000 bpd per month per field. With both fields now producing 1 million bpd the legacy decline is 65,000 bpd per month. Production from new wells has been running at about 90,000 bpd per month per field meaning net growth in production is 25,000 bpd per month. It will become smaller as output grows and that’s why ceteris paribus growth in output for both fields will continue to slow over the coming years. When all the easily drillable sites are exhausted – at the latest sometime shortly after 2020 – production from these two fields will decline.

Others have made the same analysis. A couple of weeks ago the IEA expressed concern that shale oil euphoria was discouraging investment in longer term projects elsewhere in the world that will be needed to sustain supply when U.S. shale oil production starts to decline.

Decelerating shale oil production growth is also reflected in the forecasts of independent analysts ITG. They have undertaken the most thorough analysis of U.S. shale plays and use a rigorous and granular approach in forecasting future shale and non-shale oil production in the U.S. Of course their forecast like any other is dependent on the underlying assumptions. But ITG can hardly be branded shale oil skeptics – to the contrary. Yet their forecast for U.S. production growth also calls for a dramatic slowing in the rate of growth. Their most recent forecast is for U.S. production excluding Alaska to grow by about 700,000 bpd in 2014. With Alaskan production continuing to decline, that implies growth of under 700,000 bpd in overall U.S. oil production, or 200,000 bpd less than consensus.

The final element of supply is represented by the change in inventory levels. The major OECD countries will end 2013 with oil inventories some 100 million barrels lower than they were at the beginning of the year. That stock drawdown is equivalent to nearly 300,000 bpd of supply that will not be available in 2014. Data outside the OECD countries is notoriously sparse but the evidence strongly suggests there was also massive destocking in China during 2013.

 

Analysis of Well Completion Data for Bakken Oil Wells

Analysis of Well Completion Data for Bakken Oil Wells.

The following analysis uses “well completion information” contained in a newspaper called the Bakken Weekly, a paper covering western North Dakota.  The Bakken Weekly started providing well completion information for North Dakota counties in the Bakken region in early 2012.  The analysis below is for 2012/2013 from the week of April 1, 2012 through the week of Oct. 28, 2013.

Figure 1 is a map of North Dakota counties so that the reader can relate the data below to the counties within North Dakota.

Figure 1-Map of North Dakota 

The well completion information in the Bakken Weekly includes initial production data for approximately 50% of wells.  I suspect that many wells don’t have initial production data because there was little or no initial production, although that is generally not stated.  There are a few cases where either 0 b/d is given or it is stated that the well was dry, but that is rare.

A fact that suggests that many of the completed wells don’t produce oil is that the sums of well completions in the Bakken Weekly increases significantly more rapidly than the number of producing wells provided by the state of North Dakota.  In this analysis, I will assume that initial production was 0 b/d for wells in which initial well production data was not included.

Based upon oil production data from the state of North Dakota, the counties of Dunn, McKenzie, Mountrail and Williams made up 89.0% of the Bakken region oil production in 2013 through August.  Based upon well completion data, it’s easy to see why oil companies have concentrated on those 4 counties: initial production/well values are considerably higher in those 4 counties compared to the values for other Bakken counties, excluding Stark.  Table I contains initial well production data for the 4 main counties based upon all wells drilled within the counties in 2013, through the week of Oct. 28.

Average Initial Well Production for Top 4 Counties

County

Dunn

McKenzie

Mountrail

Williams

Initial production/well (b/d)

658

924

716

643

Table I

Compare the values in Table I with the values for other counties, excluding Stark, contained in Table II.

Average Initial Well Production for other Counties in the Bakken Region

County

Billings

Bottineau

Burke

Divide

Others*

Initial production/well (b/d)

104

53

262

269

60

Table II

*Bowman, Golden Valley, Ward, Renville, McLean, McHenry and Slope counties combined

I combined and separated out Bowman, Golden Valley, Ward, Renville, McLean, McHenry and Slope counties because there have been few wells drilled in those counties.  Based upon the initial production/well data, it’s not surprising that far fewer wells have been drilled in the counties contained in Table II relative to the 4 main counties.

I did not include Stark County in the tables above because Stark County is unique.  Relative to the 4 main counties, not very many wells have been drilled in Stark County.  There appears to be an area within the county where wells are quite productive but outside of that area, well production is minimal.  Oil companies appear to be delineating where the sweet spot is within Stark County and concentrating on that sweet spot.   The average initial production per well in Stark County is 676 b/d in 2013.    For all Stark County wells drilled thus far in 2013 through Oct. 28, 28.6% had an initial production >1000 b/d while 44.0% were <300 b/d.

Table III contains data for the percentage of wells that had initial production of >3000 b/d, >2000 b/d, >1000 b/d and <300 b/d in the four main counties.

Percentage of Wells per Initial Well Production Rate for Top 4 Counties

County

Dunn

McKenzie

Mountrail

Williams

>3000 b/d

0.4

4.9

0.4

1.7

>2000 b/d

8.0

15.7

6.1

7.3

>1000 b/d

23.9

29.6

24.9

17.9

<300 b/d

58.8

53.6

50.2

48.3

Table III

The high numerical values for <300 b/d in Table III is largely due to the large number of wells without production data.

The other counties, excluding Stark, have few wells with initial production >1000 b/d and a high percentage of wells that have initial production of <300 b/d (see Table IV):

Percentage of Wells per Initial Well Production Rate for Other Bakken Counties

County

Billings

Bottineau

Burke

Divide

Others*

>1000 b/d

1.5

0.0

3.7

0.9

0.0

<300 b/d

86.3

100

64.8

44.0

95.8

Table IV

Oil companies are high-grading their drilling, drilling in the most favorable locations first.  In 2013, McKenzie County has become the prime location to drill as seen in the data of Table V (The number of wells without initial production data are included in Table V):

Well Completion Data for Top 4 Counties

County

Dunn

McKenzie

Mountrail

Williams

Number of well completions in 2013 through week of Oct. 28

524

905

478

480

Number of Wells Without Production Data

291

464

230

218

Table V

I attribute the high drilling rate in McKenzie County to the higher probability that a highly productive well will be drilled there, based upon data in Table III.

Table VI contains the high and low reported initial production rates for the 4 main counties so far in 2013 (This excludes wells for which initial production data was not provided):

High and Low Initial Well Production Rates for Top 4 Counties

County

Dunn

McKenzie

Mountrail

Williams

High Rate (b/d)

4,331

12,248

8,683

4,174

Low Rate (b/d)

53

23

52

23

Table VI

Promoters of the oil industry who claim that production in the Bakken region will continue to increase for many years to come appear to assume that the area outside of the 4 main counties will be as productive as within the 4 main counties.  The data above provides compelling evidence that future production outside of the 4 main counties will not be comparable to present production within the 4 main counties. At some point in the not-too-distant future, the 4 main counties will be saturated with oil wells.  It’s reasonable to assume that production within the 4 main counties will decline fairly rapidly after that point is reached.

The average yearly percent declines for wells in the Bakken region, based upon data in a presentation by geologist David Hughes, Tight Oil: A Solution to U.S. Import Dependence?, given at the Geological Society of America meeting on Oct. 28, 2013, are given in Table VII.

Average Decline Rates for Bakken Oil Wells Based Upon the Hughes Report

Year

% Decline

1

70

2

34

3

23

4

21

Table VII

Based upon the values in Table VII, the rate of drilling in the Bakken region has to be maintained at a high level to prevent a rapid decline in Bakken region oil production.  It also means that much of the production from new wells is replacing declining production from older wells.

How does the 2013 data compare to 2012 data?  Because the Bakken Weekly does not have well completion information for the early part of 2012, the data in Table VIII for 2012 is from the first week of April through the end of 2012. I’ve also included data for July-October 2013.

Average Initial Well Production Comparison between 2012 and 2013 for Top 4 Counties

County

Dunn

McKenzie

Mountrail

Williams

Average Initial Well Production 2012 (b/d)

700

928

883

760

Average Initial Well Production in 2013 (b/d)

658

924

716

643

Average Initial Well Production for July-Oct. 2013

680

844

606

677

Table VIII

Another interesting aspect of drilling activity in the Bakken region is that the number of well completions and the sum of initial well production in the Bakken region during the period April-August 2013 has been substantially higher than in the same period of 2012, as seen in Table IX:

Bakken Oil Production Relative to Well Completions

and Initial Well Production

Year

2012

2013

Percent Increase

Well Completions (April-August)

868

1,302

50.0

Sum of Initial Well Production in b/d (April-August)

674,207

923,728

37.0

Bakken Oil Production Increase in b/d (August relative to March)*

123,072

125,950

2.3

Table IX

*Data from the State of North Dakota

The data in Table IX indicates that far more effort has been required in 2013, compared to 2012, to obtain a comparable production increase for Bakken region oil production.

 

Schilling Shilling | KUNSTLER

Schilling Shilling | KUNSTLER.

Such is the power of wishful thinking that a set of fool-making memes now pulses through the word-clouds of financial chatter in America spreading the false good cheer that our economic troubles are behind us and pimping for perpetual motion in wealth expansion. A poster boy for this bundle of falsehoods is financial analyst A. Gary Schilling. Just last week, he was talking out of his cloacal vent about US “energy independence” and “the manufacturing renaissance” that will allow this country to magically decouple from the compressive contraction driving the rest of the world.

Shilling is among the growing chorus of cheerleaders who believe that the shale oil and gas boom will make it possible for so-called “consumers” (what we foolishly call ourselves) to keep driving to Wal-Mart forever — which is the master wish behind all the current fantasies of endless expansion. That idea is going to leave a lot of people disappointed and put the nation further behind in the necessary reorganization of all the key systems that support everyday civilized life, namely: food production, commerce, transport, and the management of capital.

Here’s what’s actually going to happen with shale oil and gas. Best case scenario: shale oil production rises for three more years to about 2.3 million barrels a day and then crashes so quickly that in 10 years the shale oil industry ceases to exist. A less rosy forecast would admit that the exorbitant costs of drilling-and-fracking will not find the necessary capital to even take the industry that far. Rather, dwindling capital will see the shocking decline rates of shale wells (commonly 50 percent the first year and double digits the following) and will run shrieking for other places to hide.

Contrary to Gary Schilling’s blather, America is not practicing “energy conservation.” Rather, an economy engineered strictly to run on cheap oil has gotten crushed by oil that is not cheap. Does Schilling believe, for example, that American suburbia works just as well on $90-a-barrel oil as it did on $11-a-barrel oil, or that it has a future as the basic armature of daily life, or that we are doing anything meaningful to alter the burdens of living this way? My guess is that he has never thought about it.

Likewise, as the American economy got crushed by no-longer-cheap oil, all the working classes in this country below the one-percenters got crushed, hammered, and trashed. Among other things they can no longer afford is gasoline. Total vehicle miles driven has gone down by almost 3 percent since 2007. It will keep going down, and the Happy Motoring matrix will collapse for another reason: capital scarcity will translate into fewer available car loans for Americans, and fewer qualified borrowers, and Americans are used to buying their cars on installment loans.

The shale gas situation is also not the “energy savior” it’s cracked up to be. Because it costs so much to export the stuff, and we don’t have the export infrastructure in place — ocean terminals, fleets of special (expensive!) tanker ships — shale gas is hostage to the US domestic market. The initial boom was so extravagant that it produced a gas glut, which drove the price way below the level that makes it economically rational to drill for the stuff. Now, a lot of those drilling rigs are migrating to North Dakota, where the Bakken shale oil fields require perpetual increases in rig-counts to offset the rapid decline of existing wells.

The shale gas regions of Barnett (Fort Worth), Haynesville (Louisiana), and Fayetteville, Arkansas, are already dwindling. The “sweet spots” turned out to be smaller than the hype suggested. The Marcellus (Pennsylvania and New York) is next. Several of the other hyped shale gas “plays” — the Antrim and the Utica — proved too unpromising to even bother with and never made it out of the wish bag.

The problems with fracking and groundwater pollution are secondary to the economic quandaries as far as the fate of the industry is concerned. At under $8 a unit (1000 cubic feet), shale gas is not worth drilling-and-fracking for. It’s currently around $4. Above $8, Americans are going to have a hard time paying for it. So, enjoy the temporary glut and now stand back and watch the industry begin to dry up and blow away.

As for the “industrial renaissance,” clowns like Gary Shilling can’t put together the obvious trends. The talked-about new factories will be operated by robots, so there would be no employment renaissance to go along with them. Then there is the question of who might the products be sold to? To Americans who have no jobs and no money? To Europeans who are also going broke and also have the ability to roboticize industrial production and impoverish their own working people? To Asia, which is already at industrial over-capacity — and which will only grow worse as Americans and Europeans buy less stuff? I guess that leaves South America and Africa. Well, good luck with that.

Schilling is really only shilling for delusional stock market psychology, which tends to be a self-reinforcing racket until it reaches a threshold of credulity criticality and then implodes from a sudden loss of faith, ruining even a great many one percenters. Money may indeed keep pouring into the US stock markets, especially from other countries, where the money is frightened. I’ll tell you what it ought to be really frightened about: that it doesn’t represent genuine capital, i.e. has no real value. One day not distant, all the nations will discover that their money is only notional and that notions have a way of going up in a vapor. Foolish ideas, though, appear more durable and plentiful. They just keep coming, no matter what’s going on in reality.

My basic wish is that we would quit all our wishing in America and get on with the job of transforming our economic arrangements to a scale and mode that are consistent with the resource and capital realities of these times — before they whap us upside the head and put and end to the project of remaining civilized.

 

 

The Coming Bust of the Great Bakken Oil Field : SRSrocco Report

The Coming Bust of the Great Bakken Oil Field : SRSrocco Report.

The Coming Bust of the Great Bakken Oil Field

Filed in Energy by  on November 16, 2013

There has been a lot of Fanfare on the huge increase of oil production coming from the Bakken Field located in North Dakota.  There are many stories of people moving to the state to take advantage of the new OIL BOOM.  It seems like everyone is going there to start a new life and make it rich in one of the coldest areas in the United States.

However, with all BOOMS, comes the inevitable BUST.  This was true shown by the famous example of the 1800′s California gold rush:

California_Gold_Production

According to the article, “The Bakken Boom: The Modern Day Gold Rush”:

Despite the low productivity of the labor-intensive process of gold panning, annual production grew from just over 1,400 ounces in 1848 to more than 3.9 million ounces by 1852. To put this into perspective, prior to 1848, cumulative U.S. gold production amounted to just over 1 million ounces.

Of course nuggets are easier to find than flakes, and the great majority were discovered in the first few years. By 1852, only four years after gold was first discovered, California gold production began a rapid descent. Production declined 50% by 1862 and 80% by 1872.

The decline was only barely checked by the adoption of ‘hydraulic mining’ – a process by which massive amounts of water under intense pressure is used to disintegrate entire hillsides. At the North Bloomfield mine, for example, 60 million gallons of water per day eroded more than 41 million cubic yards of debris between 1866 and 1884. (http://www.sierranevadavirtualmuseum.com/docs/galleries/history/mining/hydraulic.htm)

Typical of all BOOMS, production increases exponentially, peaks and then declines in the same fashion.  However, Even with high-tech hydraulic water mining techniques, the industry could never produce more gold than it did in 1852 when it reached nearly 4 million ounces.

BAD NEWS FOR THE BAKKEN:  Decline Rate of 63,000 Barrels A Day

The EIA – U.S. Energy Information Agency is now putting out data on the individual shale oil and gas plays in the country.  While the American public and world have been made aware of the huge increase in oil production coming from the Bakken, few are privy to the dark side of the equation.  The Bakken’s daily decline rate from their existing oil wells has reached a staggering 63,000 barrels a day.

Bakken 63000 Oil Decline Chart

This means, that every day the Bakken pumps oil, its existing wells are now declining 63,000 (bd) barrels a day.   As you can see from the chart above, the rate really started to decline in a big way after 2011 when the average daily decline was only 20,000 bd.  In less than 3 years, this rate has increased more than 3 times (63,000 bd).

This next chart gives us the total as well as net oil production increases month over month:

Bakken Legacy Decline

The EIA is showing what is indicated to take place in December over November.  If we look at the actual data that comes out of the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources, Bakken oil field production in September hit 867,123 bd.  The difference to reach that 1 million barrels a day is coming from the Montana portion of the Bakken.

Here is an actual screenshot of the ND DMR’s monthly report released November 5th:

ND Directors Cut

Moreover, if we look at total production, again using the North Dakota DMR’s data, their total oil production data for the state in September was 931,940 bd.  This includes oil production outside the Bakken and Three Forks (data for Bakken in the EIA charts includes Three Forks).

Astonishingly, 93% of North Dakota’s oil production comes from the Bakken region alone.

The Bakken Drilling Frenzy Gives The Illusion of Sustainable Growth

The typical American believes the United States has all this hidden oil and gas resources that we can easily tap into.  I just had a conversation with a neighbor yesterday who told me that he couldn’t understand why we weren’t “ENERGY INDEPENDENT.”  Gosh, if I had a dollar for every time someone said that…

Again, the public is only told about all the huge increases in production, but for some strange reason, MSM tends to omit the negative side.  The only way oil production is increasing in the Bakken is due to the massive amount of new wells that have been added.  The chart below reveals the illusion of this sustainable growth:

Bakken Production & Producing Wells

First, the figures in white represent North Dakota’s total wells producing for their production of the Bakken.  Even though the graph includes Montana’s production, it still gives us a good idea of the huge increase in oil wells it takes to grow production.

Second, in 2008, the Bakken in North Dakota only had 479 producing wells, however at last count in September when then Bakken was producing 867,123 barrels of oil a day, it took 6,447 wells to do so.  Thus, the energy companies drilling and producing oil in the Bakken have to keep increasing wells each month (and year) to offset the huge 63,000 bd decline.

For example, there were an additional 135 new wells (ND) producing in Sept. over Aug. which added 20,589 bd of production.  If there were only say 100-105 new wells added that month, production would have remained flat or possibly declined for Sept.

Lastly, the best and most productive wells are exploited first leaving the dead-beats for last.  This will make things even more fun as the peak and subsequent bust finally arrives.

The Coming Bust of The Great Bakken Field

As with all oil fields, there are only so many sweet spots and areas to drill.  The 63,000 bd decline rate at the Bakken only has one way to go — and that’s higher.   If the present trend continues (highly likely) then we are going to see a daily decline rate of 75-85,000 barrels a day by the end of 2014.

Thus, the shale oil players are going to have to make those drilling hamsters work even harder as they will need to increase more wells each month just to grow production.  At some point in time (sooner rather than later), the daily decline rate will reach a figure that these companies will be unable to offset.

There are only so many drilling locations available and once they run out, the Great Bakken Field will become a BUST as the high decline rates will push overall oil production down the very same way it came up.

Those who moved to the frigid state of North Dakota with Dollar signs in their eyes and images of sugar-plums dancing in their heads will realize firsthand the negative ramifications of all BOOM & BUST cycles.  At this time, the word “Cold” will have more than one meaning.

Once the Bakken and Ealge Ford oil fields peak and decline, the United States has no other “ENERGY RABBIT” in its hat.  This is precisely why investors need to understand energy and why its important to own physical assets such as gold and silver.

Check back for more updates at the SRSrocco Report.

 

BAKKEN HYPE VERSUS REALITY « The Burning Platform

BAKKEN HYPE VERSUS REALITY « The Burning Platform.

 

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