Olduvaiblog: Musings on the coming collapse

Home » 2014 » January » 05

Daily Archives: January 5, 2014

Russia Just Says “Nyet” To Japan’s Radioactive Exports | Zero Hedge

Russia Just Says “Nyet” To Japan’s Radioactive Exports | Zero Hedge.

While Japanese imports are surging on the back of an ever-depreciating currency and ever-appreciating cost of energy, it would appear the enterprising Easterners have come up with a solution to two problems – exports and radiation. As RT reportsmore than 130 “contaminated” used cars from Japan were denied access to Russia last year. The consumer watchdog agency Rospotrebnadzor is also closely monitoring deliveries of fish.

 

A customs officer holds up a device used for measuring radiation levels, while standing in front of vehicles delivered from Japan, in Russia’s far eastern city of Vladivostok.

 

Via RT,

 

Strict control of all cargo, arriving from Japan, will continue in 2014 as well, Rospotrebnadzor said on its website.

In 2013, Russia has banned 165 batches of contaminated goods from entering the country. There were mainly used cars – 132, and spare parts for vehicles – 33,” the statement said.

 

Deliveries of fish coming from Japan and those caught in the Pacific Ocean are also being monitored, the agency said.

 

Particular attention is paid to this issue in Russia’s Far East, where radiation control of fish is being wieldy implemented, including the distribution chain,” Rospotrebnadzor said.

 

The supply of Japanese fish to Russia is currently allowed only under a special declaration that confirms the presence of radioactive substances in the products is within safety standards established by the Customs Union of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan.

 

It seems the world is also losing interest in one of Japan’s other major exports – Blue-Fin Tuna (as prices have dropped 95% from last year!)

Via The Guardian,

Sushi restaurateur Kiyoshi Kimura paid 7.36m yen (£43,000) for a 230kg (507lb) bluefin tuna in the year’s celebratory first auction at Tokyo’s Tsukiji market on Sunday – just 5% of what he paid a year earlier despite signs that the species is in serious decline.

 

 

There were 1,729 tuna sold in Sunday’s first auction for 2014, according to the city government, down from 2,419 last year. The 32,000 yen ($305) per kilogram paid for the top fish this year compares with 700,000 yen per kilogram last year.

Precious Metals in 2014

Precious Metals in 2014.

“Now the New Year reviving old desires
The thoughtful Soul to Solitude retires”

Rubaiyat of Omar Khayyam

Yes folks, it’s that time of year again; but unlike old Khayyam who reflected bucolically on the continuing availability of wine, we must turn our thoughts to the dangers and opportunities of the coming year. They are considerable and multi-faceted, but instead of being drawn into the futility of making forecasts I will only offer readers the barest of basics and focus on the corruption of currencies. My conclusion is the overwhelming danger is of currency destruction and that gold is central to their downfall.

As we enter 2014 mainstream economists relying on inaccurate statistics, many of which are not even relevant to a true understanding of our economic condition, seem convinced that the crises of recent years are now laid to rest. They swallow the line that unemployment is dropping to six or seven per cent, and that price inflation is subdued; but a deeper examination, unsubtly exposed by the work of John Williams of Shadowstats.com, shows these statistics to be false.

If we objectively assess the state of the labour markets in most welfare-driven economies the truth conforms to a continuing slump; and if we take a realistic view of price increases, including capital assets, price inflation may even be in double figures. The corruption of price inflation statistics in turn makes a mockery of GDP numbers, which realistically adjusted for price inflation are contracting.

This gloomy conclusion should come as no surprise to thoughtful souls in any era. These conditions are the logical outcome of the corruption of currencies. I have no doubt that if in 1920-23 the Weimar Republic used today’s statistical methodology government economists would be peddling the same conclusions as those of today. The error is to believe that expansion of money quantities is a cure-all for economic ills, and ignore the fact that it is actually a tax on the vast majority of people reducing both their earnings and savings.

This is the effect of unsound money, and with this in mind I devised a new monetary statistic in 2013 to quantify the drift away from sound money towards an increasing possibility of monetary collapse. The Fiat Money Quantity (FMQ) is constructed by taking account of all the steps by which gold, as proxy for sound money, has been absorbed over the last 170 years from private ownership by commercial banks and then subsequently by central banks, all rights of gold ownership being replaced by currency notes and deposits. The result for the US dollar, which as the world’s reserve currency is today’s gold’s substitute, is shown in Chart 1.

Chart1FMQ 311213

The graphic similarities with expansions of currency quantities in the past that have ultimately resulted in monetary and financial destruction are striking. Since the Lehman crisis the US authorities have embarked on their monetary cure-all to an extraordinary degree. We are being encouraged to think that the Fed saved the world in 2008 by quantitative easing, when the crisis has only been concealed by currency hyper-inflation.

Are we likely to collectively recognise this error and reverse it before it is too late? So long as the primary function of central banks is to preserve the current financial system the answer has to be no. An attempt to reduce the growth rate in the FMQ by minimal tapering has already raised bond market yields considerably, threatening to derail monetary policy objectives. The effect of rising bond yields and term interest rates on the enormous sums of government and private sector debt is bound to increase the risk of bankruptcies at lower rates compared with past credit cycles, starting in the countries where the debt problem is most acute.

With banks naturally reluctant to take on more lending-risk in this environment, rising interest rates and bond yields can be expected to lead to contracting bank credit. Does the Fed stand aside and let nature take its course? Again the answer has to be no. It must accelerate its injections of raw money and grow deposits on its own balance sheet to compensate. The underlying condition that is not generally understood is actually as follows:

The assumption that the Fed is feeding excess money into the economy to stimulate it is incorrect.
Individuals, businesses and banks require increasing quantities of money just to stand still and to avoid a second debt crisis.

I have laid down the theoretical reasons why this is so by showing that welfare-driven economies, fully encumbered by debt, through false employment and price-inflation statistics are concealing a depressive slump. An unbiased and informed analysis of nearly all currency collapses shows that far from being the product of deliberate government policy, they are the result of loss of control over events, or currency inflation beyond their control. I expect this to become more obvious to markets in the coming months.

Gold’s important role

Gold has become undervalued relative to fiat currencies such as the US dollar, as shown in the chart below, which rebases gold at 100 adjusted for both the increase in above-ground gold stocks and US dollar FMQ since the month before the Lehman Crisis.

gold adjusted 311213

Given the continuation of the statistically-concealed economic slump, plus the increased quantity of dollar-denominated debt, and therefore since the Lehman Crisis a growing probability of a currency collapse, there is a growing case to suggest that gold should be significantly higher in corrected terms today. Instead it stands at a discount of 36%.

This undervaluation is likely to lead to two important consequences. Firstly, when the tide for gold turns it should do so very strongly, with potentially catastrophic results for uncovered paper markets. The last time this happened to my knowledge was in September 1999, when central banks led by the Bank of England and the Fed rescued the London gold market, presumably by making bullion available to distressed banks. The scale of gold’s current undervaluation and the degree to which available monetary gold has been depleted suggests that a similar rescue of the gold market cannot be mounted today.

The second consequence is to my knowledge not yet being considered at all. The speed with which fiat currencies could lose their purchasing power might be considerably more rapid than, say, the collapse of the German mark in 1920-23. The reason this may be so is that once the slide in confidence commences, there is little to slow its pace.

In his treatise “Stabilisation of the Monetary Unit – From the Viewpoint of Monetary Theory” written in January 1923, Ludwig von Mises made clear that “speculators actually provide the strongest support for the position of notes (marks) as money”. He argued that considerable quantities of marks were acquired abroad in the post-war years “precisely because a future rally in the mark’s exchange rate was expected. If these sums had not been attracted abroad they would have necessarily led to an even steeper rise in prices on the domestic market”.

At that time other currencies, particularly the US dollar, were freely exchangeable with gold, so foreign speculators were effectively selling gold to buy marks they believed to be undervalued. Today the situation is radically different, because Western speculators have sold nearly all the gold they own, and if you include the liquidation of gold paper unbacked by physical metal, in a crisis they will be net buyers of gold and sellers of currencies. Therefore it stands to reason that gold is central to a future currency crisis and that when it happens it is likely to be considerably more rapid than the Weimar experience.

I therefore come to two conclusions for 2014: that we are heading towards a second and unexpected financial and currency crisis which can happen at any time, and that the lack of gold ownership in welfare-driven economies is set to accelerate the rate at which a collapse in purchasing power may occur.

Top 10 Global Risks for 2014 | Zero Hedge

Top 10 Global Risks for 2014 | Zero Hedge.

With another new year upon us mortals, we thought it is time again to check out the top 10 global risks ranked by Oxford Analytica.  Not surprisingly, from a geographical perspective, a majority of the top global risks come from the Middle East region (at 40%) and the Asia-Pacific region, specifically China, and North Korea (at 30%).  U.S., Europe, and Russia round out the rest.

 

 

Source: Oxford Analytica

 

The ranking is mostly based on the potential size of global impact.  However, putting them under the lens of probability, a difference picture emerges (see graph below)

 

Chart Source: Oxford Analytica

While the economic related risks such as a sharp slowdown in China, EU disintegration, and deflation in the U.S may rein supreme in terms of global impact, the probability of them materializing is actually less likely than the geopolitical risk in the Middle East (Syria, Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan), and Asia (China, North Korea).

 

In terms of the type of risk, seven out of the top 10 risks are geopolitical, while only three are financial or economic.  So if we look at probability from this perspective, we are more likely to see a war or regime topple before another financial crisis rippling through the world again.

 

Regarding the ‘U.S. Deflationary Trap’, the Fed said last month it would reduce its monthly asset purchases by $10 billion to $75 billion, while also expressed worries about inflation.  Meanwhile, Fed’s balance sheet has ballooned to $4 trillion, we seriously doubt the U.S. deflationary scenario after Fed’s helicoptered five years worth of QEs.

 

 

At this point, we at EconMatters believe that the Federal Reserve removing the Liquidity Punchbowl not because everything is fixed with the US economy, and we have fully recovered from the financial crisis of 2007, but because they have no other choice in the matter given the obvious asset bubbles they have created in the credit, bond and equity markets.

 

For now, the inflationary effect from QEs is mostly trapped in the stock and commodity markets (i.e. enriching the 1%), but inevitably it will manifest and spill over to the consumer side of things hitting hard on the 99%.  The removal of this liquidity, the resultant implications for financial markets, and potential future inflationary consequence of Fed’s QEs remain an under appreciated risk to the global economy in our humble opinion.

Dudley Sees Fed Needs Better Grasp of How QE Works – Bloomberg

Dudley Sees Fed Needs Better Grasp of How QE Works – Bloomberg.

Federal Reserve Bank ofNew York President William C. Dudley said the Fed needs to better understand how its bond buying provides stimulus to the economy.

“We don’t understand fully how large-scale asset purchase programs work to ease financial marketconditions,” Dudley said today in a speech in Philadelphia. “Is it the effect of the purchases on the portfolios of private investors, or alternatively is the major channel one of signaling?”

Dudley also said central bank economists confront a “riddle” on whether the decline in U.S. unemployment to 7 percent in November will reverse as more workers return to the labor force.

“The U.S. unemployment rate has declined more sharply than one might expect given the economy’s growth rate over the past few years,” Dudley said. “Is this permanent or will it reverse if the economy continues to grow and the pressure on labor market resources increases in the coming years?”

The Fed last month trimmed its monthly bond purchases to $75 billion from $85 billion, taking the first step toward unwinding the unprecedented stimulus that Chairman Ben S. Bernanke put in place to help the economy recover from the worst recession since the 1930s.

Dudley used his remarks to discuss how research at the regional bank helps the Fed understand the economy and address policy questions.

To contact the reporter on this story: Steve Matthews in Atlanta atsmatthews@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Chris Wellisz atcwellisz@bloomberg.net

Is This The End Of The Phony Recovery? : Personal Liberty™

Is This The End Of The Phony Recovery? : Personal Liberty™.

 

Is This The End Of The Phony Recovery?

PHOTOS.COM

While the mainstream media continue to push the meme that the economy is in (slow) recovery, some important facts point out that things are not as rosy as you are being told. In fact, most Americans feel the recessionnever ended.

An analysis of retail sales post-Christmas indicates that in-store retail sales decreased more than 3 percent over the same week last year. Retail brick-and-mortar shopper traffic decreased by 21.2 percent over thesame period in 2012. The lack of in-store sales didn’t translate to an increase in Web sales.

In September, homes sales dropped more than at any time in the last 40 months. New mortgage applications dropped 66 percent from an October 2012 peak, reaching a lownot seen in 13 years.

We are now seeing business and personal debt reaching levels not seen since 2007, right before the last crash. Household incomes have not improved at all and, in fact, have dropped. The unemployment numbers are completely cooked. The unemployment rate will drop again due to the ending of benefits to 1.3 million workers who will no longer be counted.

There are 107 million Americans on government assistance. About 50 million Americans get food stamps. The U.S. population has increased by 16 million people since 2006, but there are 1.5 million fewer Americans employed today. Workforce participation rates are the lowest in decades.

According to the consumer price index, the economy is growing at about 2.5 percent. But official inflation is also 2.5 percent. Real inflation is closer to 8 percent.

Yes, the stock market is hitting record highs. But that’s because the Federal Reserve is dumping $85 billion a month into the economy through QE to infinity to prop up the banksters and the market.

The Fed has inflated your dollar away to nothing. One dollar is now equal to 5 cents.

All so-called “growth” in the economy can be directly attributed to inflation. Inflation is not increasing prices, which is a symptom of inflation, but an increase in the money supply.

Inflation is a hidden tax on the wealth of the people.

Helicopter Ben Bernanke has succeeded in creating the illusion of a recovery. The illusion is about to end.

H1N1 flu surge in B.C. Lower Mainland lands people in ICUs – British Columbia – CBC News

H1N1 flu surge in B.C. Lower Mainland lands people in ICUs – British Columbia – CBC News.

Fraser Health says an outbreak of H1N1 flu has sent over a dozen people into intensive care in Lower Mainland hospitals. Officials say that H1N1 flu vaccines are effective but previous vaccinations against H1N1, which many people sought in 2009, may not help anymore due to mutations in the virus.Fraser Health says an outbreak of H1N1 flu has sent over a dozen people into intensive care in Lower Mainland hospitals. Officials say that H1N1 flu vaccines are effective but previous vaccinations against H1N1, which many people sought in 2009, may not help anymore due to mutations in the virus. (Chuck Stoody/The Canadian Press)

 

More than a dozen patients are in intensive care, some on ventilators, because of the H1N1 flu virus, according to the chief medical officer for a B.C. Lower Mainland health authority.

Dr. Paul Van Buynder, with Fraser Health, said Friday that 15 patients, many of them otherwise healthy, young people, were recently admitted to hospitals in the region.

“It is a lot for us at this particular time, especially because there is not a lot of circulating disease in the community at this point, and so we’re worried that this has happened to so many people so quickly,” he said.

He says the ages of the patients turning up with H1N1 flu span the spectrum, and include those in their 30s. He also said at least one of the patients is pregnant, and also that one person may have died from this flu strain.

“I have one person who hasn’t been confirmed, but I’m pretty sure did pass away from this,” Van Buynder told CBC News.

Van Buynder said medical officials are seeing small pockets of H1N1 breaking out across the region, in a pattern mirroring the flu’s spread in Alberta, Ontario and Texas.

Alberta’s Health Minister Fred Horne says there have been 965 lab-confirmed cases, another 251 people have been hospitalized due to influenza and five people have died so far this flu season.

The H1N1 flu outbreak of 2009, which the World Health Organization declared a global pandemic, prompted mass immunizations across Canada.

Van Buynder said anyone visiting a hospital or health facility in B.C. will either need to wear a mask, or be vaccinated against the flu — and he said that previous vaccinations against H1N1 may not help anymore due to mutations in the virus.

“Certainly we don’t think everybody should be reassured by previously being vaccinated, and we’d like them to make sure that they go out and get it again,” he said.

Fraser Health serves more than 1.6 million people from Burnaby to Hope, to Boston Bar.

Activist Post: USDA-Approved Agent Orange: It’s Coming to a Farm Near You

Activist Post: USDA-Approved Agent Orange: It’s Coming to a Farm Near You.

This caused damage to the ecosystem of Vietnam that is still present today. More than 5 million acres of forests were destroyed, and half a million acres of farmland were tainted. It will take centuries of nurturing for the land to recover.

The environment was not the only thing affected. Exposure to Agent Orange resulted in five horrible illness in those exposed: soft-tissue sarcoma, non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, chronic lymphocytic leukemia (including hairy-cell leukemia), Hodgkin’s disease, and chloracne. (source) What’s even worse is that the damage may not be limited to those directly exposed – it can affect offspring even up to 3rd and 4th generations.

Over a million US veterans were also exposed:

In 2010, the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs provided $16.2 billion in compensation to 1,095,473 Vietnam-era veterans.[i] The agency does not relate these service-connected benefit figures directly to Agent Orange/dioxin exposure or to any other possible cause of illness, nor does it provide data on total compensation for the years since the war ended.

Thousands of U.S. veterans returning from Vietnam reported health problems almost immediately and rapidly associated them with Agent Orange/dioxin exposure. Controversy over these assertions began just as fast, and continues now.

Many questions remain: Whether (and how to test whether) the illnesses of veterans and their offspring are related to Agent Orange and other herbicide exposure; Levels of dioxin present in the chemicals; The accuracy of data about veterans’ exposure; Levels of corporate, military and government awareness of dioxin’s presence; Fixing of responsibility for the contaminant’s presence and liability for its damages; Details of research protocols, accuracy of findings and reliability of interpretations; and Decisions on who should pay what to whom for which possible courses of remedial action. This “blame game” has blocked action in both the U.S. and Vietnam, needlessly prolonging the suffering of millions of U.S. veterans and Vietnamese. – (source)And now, the USDA, in all of their infinite wisdom, intends to expose Americans to one of the deadly ingredients via our food supply.

Corn and soybeans are present in some form in up to 90% of the processed foods available today. So not only will we be exposed to the effects environmentally, anyone who eats processed food will be directly consuming it. Mmmm…Corn with Agent Orange Sauce…Yummy.

Some scientist argue that 2,4-D is not responsible for the horrible human toll extracted by Agent Orange, while others claim the weed-killer is deadly.

According to the Associated Press, scientists don’t believe 2,4-D to be responsible for health complications caused by Agent Orange, and have instead pinpointed the ingredient 2,4,5-T – banned by the EPA in 1985 – as the culprit. Previous findings by the EPA have also declared the weed killer safe to use, but other groups aren’t as confident.

As RT reported in the past, the Natural Resources Defense Council has linked 2,4-D to cases of cancer, genetic mutations and more. In addition the impact on humans, the Save Our Crops Coalition believes it will be extremely difficult to contain the application of the herbicide to a particular area.

“These herbicides have been known to drift and volatilize to cause damage to plants over ten miles away from the point of application,” the coalition claimed. (source)

Proven in the island petri dish of Molokai, the danger of GMO crops is not limited to the consumption of those foods. The farming methods themselves cause an epidemic of deadly health problems to those near the fields, including cancer, respiratory illness, and horrible skin disorders.

The EPA review of these experimental new seeds will occur over the next few months, and if approved (and we all know it will be since the EPA is as much of a sell-out as the USDA) farmers across the country will then be able to plant the new seeds douse the fields with 2,4-D throughout the growing season.

When the very air you depend on to survive is poisoned, what can you do? How can you prep for this?

Agent Orange. It’s coming to a farm near you.

Daisy Luther is a freelance writer and editor. Her website, The Organic Prepper, where this first appeared, offers information on healthy prepping, including premium nutritional choices, general wellness and non-tech solutions. You can follow Daisy on Facebook and Twitter, and you can email her at daisy@theorganicprepper.ca

UK’s worst winter storms for two decades set to continue | UK news | theguardian.com

UK’s worst winter storms for two decades set to continue | UK news | theguardian.com.

The riverside at Tewkesbury, where the Severn has burst its banks

The riverside at Tewkesbury, where the Severn has burst its banks. Photograph: Dougscycles Ashburn/Corbis

Britain remains in the grip of the worst run of winter storms for two decades, with 96 flood warnings in place throughout England and Wales and a further 244 areas put on flood alert.

Coastal areas – particularly in southern England – are most vulnerable because of unusually high tides and the arrival of a strong Atlantic storm.

The Met Office has issued yellow weather warnings of ice and rain, predicting river and surface flooding as well as travel disruption, mainly in south Wales and the south-west and south-east of England. Up to 40mm of rain could fall on higher ground.

Inland rainfall will put pressure on rivers, endangering nearby communities including those along the river Medway in Kent, the river Thames in Oxford and Osney, and the river Severn estuary in Gloucestershire.

The Thames barrier will remain closed to protect land near the river.

Matt Dobson, a forecaster for MeteoGroup, said the rain “simply has nowhere to go” because weeks of severe weather had left the ground waterlogged and rivers rising over their banks.

“It’s very unusual to have so many powerful storms come in one after the other in such a short space of time; we haven’t seen anything like this since about 1991,” he said.

“The nasty weather of the last few days is going to continue across the UK, with the combination of high tides and a powerful storm putting coastal areas particularly at risk.

“Any rain will mean more flooding as the ground is saturated and swollen rivers are coming up against strong waves.”

The strong winds, persistent rain and tidal waves are predicted to batter the UK for at least another two days, as emergency services attempt to cope with the trail of devastation already created by the severe weather.

More than 200 homes have been flooded from Cornwall to Scotland, with miles of coastline affected and roads and fields across the country left under water.

Two people have already died in the storms: a 27-year-old man from Surrey was found on Porthleven Sands beach in Cornwall after he was swept out to sea on New Year’s Eve night, and a woman died after being rescued from the sea in Croyde Bay, north Devon.

Dozens of volunteers in south Devon have resumed their search for missing 18-year-old student Harry Martin, who was last seen leaving his home to take photographs of the weather.

Officials around the country have pleaded with people to keep away from coastal areas, where waves up to 40ft high have lashed the land.

A man and child were almost swept away by a huge wave at Mullion Cove in Cornwall as they peered over the sea wall to watch the raging sea, and elsewhere in Cornwall vehicles driving on a coastal road were swamped and almost washed away by a tidal surge.

In Aberystwyth, a man was rescued by lifeboat after he defied police warnings and became trapped when photographing waves from a harbour jetty. Aberystwyth University has deferred the start of the examination period by one week and is advising students not to travel to the coastal town until the middle of next week.

Debris was strewn across the town’s promenade, while rail lines in north Wales were left buckled by the power of the sea and a road collapsed in Amroth, Pembrokeshire.

The strong tides were said to be the worst to batter the Welsh coast in 15 years.

Emergency services rescued four people from a flooded farm in Llanbedr near Barmouth, north-west Wales, the river Severn burst its banks in Gloucestershire for the second day running and a pregnant woman was rescued after 30 properties were flooded in Cardigan, mid-Wales. Part of the sea wall behind the Landmark theatre in Ilfracombe collapsed because of the storms.

The coastal surge in recent days has tested over 3,000km of flood defences in England.

Trains have also suffered disruption with services in west Wales and from Newport and Bristol to the south coast affected by the weather. There were also delays at the Port of Dover because of force five winds.

The environment secretary, Owen Paterson, warned that more bad weather was on the way and said he had chaired a meeting of all government departments to ensure all the necessary preparations were in place.

“Our flood defences have worked very well and have protected 205,000 homes at risk,” he said.

“I’d like to thank the Environment Agency, local councils, public utilities and emergency services who have worked tirelessly over the last week. I’d also like to thank soldiers from 36 Engineer Regiment and 2 Royal Gurkha Rifles who have helped to fill additional sandbags today in Kent.”

Paterson also urged those in risk areas to sign up to Environment Agency warnings and heed any advice that was issued.

However, the government’s flood-control strategy has been criticised after it emerged that an estimated 1,700 jobs are to be axed at the Environment Agency, with 550 staff from the floods team to go.

Paterson said frontline flood defences would be protected after the EA’s chief executive Paul Leinster said risk maintenance would be “impacted” and work on flood warnings would “have to be resized”.

Leslie Manasseh, the deputy general secretary of trade union Prospect, has called on the government to stop the cuts.

“Last week David Cameron praised Environment Agency staff for doing an amazing job with the floods and extreme weather. It’s typical that as soon as there is a crisis, the politicians immediately turn to the specialists and professionals with the scientific knowledge and skills to step in and protect the public,” he said.

Violence mars controversial Bangladesh polls – Central & South Asia – Al Jazeera English

Violence mars controversial Bangladesh polls – Central & South Asia – Al Jazeera English.

Violence has marred controversial general elections in Bangladesh, leaving at least 18 people dead in clashes between opposition supporters and police.

Thousands of protesters firebombed polling stations and stole ballot papers as deadly violence flared across the South Asian nation during Sunday’s elections, which was boycotted by the BNP, the main opposition party, and its allies.

Polls closed at 4pm (1000 GMT) after eight hours of voting and final results were expected in the early hours of Monday morning.

Police said more than 200 polling stations were set on fire or trashed by mobs in a bid by the opposition activists to wreck the contest.

AFP correspondents said there were no queues to vote, while local television reported that only a single person voted in the first three hours at one station.

The BNP is protesting against the decision by Sheikh Hasina Wajed’s government to scrap the practice of having a neutral caretaker government oversee elections.

Al Jazeera’s Jonah Hull, reporting from Dhaka, said: “The government did everything it could to bring the opposition on board, and blames the opposition entirely for the violence. The opposition, on the other hand, says it will accept nothing less than a neutral caretaker body and this government to step aside.”

Low turnout

With the opposition trying to enforce a general strike as part of a strategy to wreck the polls, government officials acknowledged the turnout was significantly lower than usual.

“The turnout was low, partly due to the boycott by many parties,” Kazi Rakibuddin Ahmad, the election commission head, said without immediately giving a figure.

Two of those killed on Sunday were beaten to death while guarding polling stations in northern districts which bore the brunt of the violence.

“We’ve seen thousands of protesters attack polling booths and our personnel at a number of locations with Molotov cocktails and petrol bombs,” Syed Abu Sayem, police chief of the northern Bogra district, told AFP news agency.

“The situation is extremely volatile.”
He described how thousands of ballot papers had been ceremoniously set on fire.

Most of the other victims were opposition activists who were shot by police, while a driver died of his injuries from a Molotov cocktail attack on his lorry.

“We were forced to open fire after thousands of them attacked us with guns and small bombs,” Mokbul Hossain, police chief in the northern Parbatipur town, said

“It was a coordinated attack. They managed to seize some ballot papers and they tried to steal our weapons.”

In Dhaka, police confirmed at least two petrol bomb attacks on polling stations.

Tens of thousands of troops were deployed across the country after around 150 people had been killed in the build-up, but they failed to halt the bloodshed.

The Awami League-led government has accused the BNP of orchestrating the violence and kept its leader, Khaleda Zia, confined to her home for a week.

Outcome not in doubt

The outcome of the contest is not in doubt as voting is taking place in only 147 of the 300 parliamentary constituencies.

Awami League candidates or allies have a clear run in the remaining 153.

The government said it had to hold the vote after parliament’s five-year term expired, but the BNP said it was a joke.

“Yes, the festive mood is missing but this election is essential to ensure constitutional continuity,” Quamrul Islam, deputy law minister, said.

Hasina’s government amended the constitution in 2010 and decided to hold elections under an all-party government.

However, Zia argued that such a government would in effect be headed by the governing party which would undermine the fairness of the process.

More violence feared

Many fear that the election is likely to stoke violence after the bloodiest year of unrest since Bangladesh broke free from Pakistan in 1971.

The former East Pakistan is the world’s eighth most populous nation but also one of the poorest in Asia, and more turmoil will undermine efforts to improve the lot of its population of 154 million – a third of whom live below the poverty line.

A local rights group says more than 500 people have been killed since January 2013, including victims of clashes that erupted after the conviction of Islamists for crimes dating back to the 1971 liberation war.

The main Islamist party was banned by judges from taking part in the election, and its leaders are either in detention or in hiding.

Alarmed by the violence, the US, EU and Commonwealth all declined to send observers.

Speaking to Al Jazeera on Sunday, Amena Mohsin, a professor of international relations at Dhaka University, said: “The election has not been democratic. It was an in-house election. The government could have held a more inclusive election and the election commission could have delayed the vote further.”

%d bloggers like this: