OPEC just published their latest Monthly Oil Market Report with crude only production data through November 2013. Their October numbers were revised downward by 67,000 barrels per day to 29,827 kb/d. Their November production was 29,633 /b/d. That was 261 kb/d below their unrevised October production and 194 kb/d below their revised October production numbers.
OPEC production at 29,633,000 bp/d is at their lowest point since June 2011. As you can see from the chart OPEC has hat two peaks since 2005. Actually these are the two highest peaks ever for OPEC if the EIA data is correct. I only have MOMR data going back to January 2005.
The July 2008 peak was 31,672,000 bp/d and the April 12 peak was 31,619,000 bp/d. I thought it might be interesting to plot who was up and who was down since those two peaks. The Gainers were Ecuador, Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE and Venezuela. Ecuador and Venezuela were up only slightly however. Here is a chart of the six gainers.
In July 2008 the combined Gainers production stood at 19,976,000 bp/d. In November their combined production stood at 21,769,000 bp/d, up 1,793,000 bp/d since that point
The losers were Algeria, Angola, Iran, Libya, Nigeria and Qatar.
The Losers peaked in December 2007 at 11,870,000 bp/d. In November 2013 their combined production stood at 8,498,000 bp/d, down 3,372,000 since their peak. Libya and Iran account for 2 million bp/d of this. So even if both were producing flat out the losers would still be down almost 1.4 mb/d.
However even before the sanctions Iran was in serious decline. If sanctions were lifted tomorrow they would be lucky to get back to half a million barrels per day below their 2005 level of about 3.9 million barrels per day. Their November production stood at 2.7 mb/d.
Libya, after the revolution could only get up to within 200,000 barrels per day of their pre-revolution production numbers. They will likely not ever get that close again however.
But something is always happening somewhere. One can say, “if there were no sanctions, no revolutions, no terrorists attacks and no other political problems then they could produce a lot more”. But there has never been a such a time in recorded history and it is not likely there will ever be such a time. So we can only measure what each country is producing today and go with that.
One person has posted me and seems very concerned over the sudden rise in US consumption. It also caught OPEC’s attention. From the latest MOMR, link up top, page 32: