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Why Has Nobody Gone To Jail For The Financial Crisis? Judge Rakoff Says: “Blame The Government” | Zero Hedge

Why Has Nobody Gone To Jail For The Financial Crisis? Judge Rakoff Says: “Blame The Government” | Zero Hedge.

By US District Judge Jed S. Rakoff (pdf)

Why Have No High Level Executives Been Prosecuted In Connection With The Financial Crisis?

Five years have passed since the onset of what is sometimes called the Great Recession. While the economy has slowly improved, there are still millions of Americans  leading lives of quiet desperation: without jobs, without resources, without hope. Who was to blame? Was it simply a result of negligence, of the kind of inordinate risk-taking commonly called a “bubble,” of an imprudent but innocent failure to maintain adequate reserves for a rainy day? Or was it the result, at least in part, of fraudulent practices, of dubious mortgages portrayed as sound risks and packaged into ever-more-esoteric financial instruments, the fundamental weaknesses of which were intentionally obscured?

If it was the former – if the recession was due, at worst, to a lack of caution – then the criminal law has no role to play in the aftermath. For, in all but a few  circumstances (not here relevant), the fierce and fiery weapon called criminal prosecution is directed at intentional misconduct, and nothing less. If the Great Recession was in no part the handiwork of intentionally fraudulent practices by high-level executives, then to prosecute such executives criminally would be “scapegoating” of the most shallow and despicable kind.

But if, by contrast, the Great Recession was in material part the product of intentional fraud, the failure to prosecute those responsible must be judged one of the more egregious failures of the criminal justice system in many years. Indeed, it would stand in striking contrast to the increased success that federal prosecutors have had over the past 50 years or so in bringing to justice even the highest level figures who orchestrated mammoth frauds. Thus, in the 1970’s, in the aftermath of the “junk bond” bubble that, in many ways, was a precursor of the more recent bubble in mortgage-backed securities, the progenitors of the fraud were all successfully prosecuted, right up to Michael Milken. Again, in the 1980’s, the so-called savings-and-loan crisis, which again had some eerie parallels to more recent events, resulted in the successful criminal prosecution of more than 800 individuals, right up to Charles Keating. And, again, the widespread accounting frauds of the 1990’s, most vividly represented by Enron and WorldCom, led directly to the successful prosecution of such previously respected C.E.O.’s as Jeffrey Skilling and Bernie Ebbers.

In striking contrast with these past prosecutions, not a single high level executive has been successfully prosecuted in connection with the recent financial crisis, and given the fact that most of the relevant criminal provisions are governed by a five-year statute of limitations, it appears very likely that none will be. It may not be too soon, therefore, to ask why.

One possibility, already mentioned, is that no fraud was committed. This possibility should not be discounted. Every case is different, and I, for one, have no opinion as to whether criminal fraud was committed in any given instance.

But the stated opinion of those government entities asked to examine the financial crisis overall is not that no fraud was committed. Quite the contrary. For example, the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, in its final report, uses variants of the word “fraud” no fewer than 157 times in describing what led to the crisis, concluding that there was a “systemic breakdown,” not just in accountability, but also in ethical behavior. As the Commission found, the signs of fraud were everywhere to be seen, with the number of reports of suspected mortgage fraud rising 20-fold between 1998 and 2005 and then doubling again in the next four years. As early as 2004, FBI Assistant Director Chris Swecker, was publicly warning of the “pervasive problem” of mortgage fraud, driven by the voracious demand for mortgagebacked securities. Similar warnings, many from within the financial community, were disregarded, not because they were viewed as inaccurate, but because, as one high level banker put it, “A decision was made that ‘We’re going to have to hold our nose and start buying the product if we want to stay in business.’”

Without multiplying examples, the point is that, in the aftermath of the financial crisis, the prevailing view of many government officials (as well as others) was that the crisis was in material respects the product of intentional fraud. In a nutshell, the fraud, they argued, was a simple one. Subprime mortgages, i.e., mortgages of dubious creditworthiness, increasingly provided the sole collateral for highly-leveraged securities that were marketed as triple-A, i.e., of very low risk. How could this transformation of a sow’s ear into a silk purse be accomplished unless someone dissembled along the way?

While officials of the Department of Justice have been more circumspect in describing the roots of the financial crisis than have the various commissions of inquiry and  other government agencies, I have seen nothing to indicate their disagreement with the widespread conclusion that fraud at every level permeated the bubble in mortgage-backed securities. Rather, their position has been to excuse their failure to prosecute high level individuals for fraud in connection with the financial crisis on one or more of three grounds:

First, they have argued that proving fraudulent intent on the part of the high level management of the banks and companies involved has proved difficult. It is undoubtedly true that the ranks of top management were several levels removed from those who were putting together the collateralized debt obligations and other securities offerings that were based on dubious mortgages; and the people generating the mortgages themselves were often at other companies and thus even further removed. And I want to stress again that I have no opinion as to whether any given top executive had knowledge of the dubious nature of the underlying mortgages, let alone fraudulent intent. But what I do find surprising is that the Department of Justice should view the proving of intent as so difficult in this context. Who, for example, were generating the so-called “suspicious activity” reports of mortgage fraud that, as mentioned, increased so hugely in the years leading up to the crisis? Why, the banks themselves. A top level banker, one might argue, confronted with increasing evidence from his own and other banks that mortgage fraud was increasing, might have inquired as to why his bank’s mortgage-based securities continued to receive triple-A ratings? And if, despite these and other reports of suspicious activity, the executive failed to make such inquiries, might it be because he did not want to know what such inquiries would reveal?

This, of course, is what is known in the law as “willful blindness” or “conscious disregard.” It is a well-established basis on which federal prosecutors have asked juries to infer intent, in cases involving complexities, such as accounting treatments, at least as esoteric as those involved in the events leading up to the financial crisis. And while some federal courts have occasionally expressed qualifications about the use of the willful blindness approach to prove intent, the Supreme Court has consistently approved it. As that Court stated most recently in Global-Tech Appliances, Inc. v. SEB S.A., 131 S.Ct. 2060, 2068 (2011), “The doctrine of willful blindness is well established in criminal law. Many criminal statutes require proof that a defendant acted knowingly or willfully, and courts applying the doctrine of willful blindness hold that defendants cannot escape the reach of these statutes by deliberately shielding themselves from clear evidence of critical facts that are strongly suggested by the circumstances.” Thus, the Department’s claim that proving intent in the financial crisis context is particularly difficult may strike some as doubtful.

Second, and even weaker, the Department of Justice has sometimes argued that, because the institutions to whom mortgage-backed securities were sold were themselves sophisticated investors, it might be difficult to prove reliance. Thus, in defending the failure to prosecute high level executives for frauds arising from the sale of mortgage-backed securities, the then head of the Department of Justice’s Criminal Division, told PBS that “in a criminal case … I have to prove not only that you made a false statement but that you intended to commit a crime, and also that the other side of the transaction relied on what you were saying. And frankly, in many of the securitizations and the kinds of transactions we’re talking about, in reality you had very sophisticated counterparties on both sides. And so even though one side may have said something was dark blue when really we can say it was sky blue, the other side of the transaction, the other sophisticated party, wasn’t relying at all on the description of the color.”

Actually, given the fact that these securities were bought and sold at lightning speed, it is by no means obvious that even a sophisticated counterparty would have detected the problems with the arcane, convoluted mortgage-backed derivatives they were being asked to purchase. But there is a more fundamental problem with the above-quoted statement from the former head of the Criminal Division,which is that it totally misstates the law. In actuality, in a criminal fraud case the Government is never required to prove reliance, ever. The reason, of course, is that would give a crooked seller a license to lie whenever he was dealing with a sophisticated counterparty. The law, however, says that society is harmed when a seller purposely lies about a material fact, even if the immediate purchaser does not rely on that particular fact, because such misrepresentations create problems for the market as a whole. And surely there never was a situation in which the sale of dubious mortgage-backed securities created more of a huge problem for the marketplace, and society as a whole, than in the recent financial crisis.

The third reason the Department has sometimes given for not bringing these prosecutions is that to do so would itself harm the economy. Thus, Attorney General Holder himself told Congress that “it does become difficult for us to prosecute them when we are hit with indications that if we do prosecute – if we do bring a criminal charge – it will have a negative impact on the national economy, perhaps even the world economy.” To a federal judge, who takes an oath to apply the law equally to rich and to poor, this excuse — sometimes labeled the “too big to jail” excuse – is disturbing, frankly, in what it says about the Department’s apparent disregard for equality under the law.

In fairness, however, Mr. Holder was referring to the prosecution of financial institutions, rather than their C.E.O.’s. But if we are talking about prosecuting individuals, the excuse becomes entirely irrelevant; for no one that I know of has ever contended that a big financial institution would collapse if one or more of its high level executives were prosecuted, as opposed to the institution itself.

Without multiplying examples further, my point is that the Department of Justice has never taken the position that all the top executives involved in the events leading up to the financial crisis were innocent, but rather has offered one or another excuse for not criminally prosecuting them – excuses that, on inspection, appear unconvincing. So, you might ask, what’s really going on here? I don’t claim to have any inside information about the real reasons why no such prosecutions have been brought, but I take the liberty of offering some speculations, for your consideration or amusement as the case may be.

At the outset, however, let me say that I totally discount the argument sometimes made that no such prosecutions have been brought because the top prosecutors were often people who previously represented the financial institutions in question and/or were people who expected to be representing such institutions in the future: the so-called “revolving door.” In my experience, every federal prosecutor, at every level, is seeking to make a name for him-or-herself, and the best way to do that is by prosecuting some high level person. While companies that are indicted almost always settle, individual defendants whose careers are at stake will often go to trial. And if the Government wins such a trial, as it usually does, the prosecutor’s reputation is made. My point is that whatever small influence the “revolving door” may have in discouraging certain white-collar prosecutions is more than offset, at least in the case of prosecuting high-level individuals, by the career-making benefits such prosecutions confer on the successful prosecutor.

So, one asks again, why haven’t we seen such prosecutions growing out of the financial crisis? I offer, by way of speculation, three influences that I think, along with others, have had the effect of limiting such prosecutions.

First, the prosecutors had other priorities. Some of these were completely understandable. For example, prior to 2001, the FBI had more than 1,000 agents assigned to investigating financial frauds, but after 9/11 many of these agents were shifted to anti-terrorism work. Who can argue with that? Eventually, it is true, new agents were hired for some of the vacated spots in fraud detection; but this is not a form of detection easily learned and recent budget limitations have only exacerbated the problem.

Of course, the FBI is not the primary investigator of fraud in the sale of mortgage-backed securities; that responsibility lies mostly with the S.E.C. But at the very time the financial crisis was breaking, the S.E.C. was trying to deflect criticism from its failure to detect the Madoff fraud, and this led it to concentrate on other Ponzi-like schemes, which for awhile were, along with accounting frauds, its chief focus. More recently, the S.E.C. has been hard hit by budget limitations, and this has not only made it more difficult to assign the kind of manpower the kinds of frauds we are talking about require, but also has led S.E.C. enforcement to focus on the smaller, easily resolved cases that will beef up their statistics when they go to Congress begging for money.

As for the Department of Justice proper, a decision was made around 2009 to spread the investigation of these financial fraud cases among numerous U.S. Attorney’s Offices, many of which had little or no prior experience in investigating and prosecuting sophisticated financial frauds. At the same time, the U.S. Attorney’s Office with the greatest expertise in these kinds of cases, the Southern District of New York, was just embarking on its prosecution of insider trading cases arising from the Rajaratnam tapes, which soon proved a gold mine of good cases that absorbed a huge amount of the attention of the securities fraud unit of that office. While I want to stress again that I have no inside information, as a former chief of that unit I would venture to guess that the cases involving the financial crisis were parceled out to Assistants who also had insider trading cases. Which do you think an Assistant would devote most of her attention to: an insider trading case that was already nearly ready to go to indictment and that might lead to a high-visibility trial, or a financial crisis case that was just getting started, would take years to complete, and had no guarantee of even leading to an indictment? Of course, she would put her energy into the insider trading case, and if she was lucky, it would go to trial, she would win, and she would then take a job with a large law firm. And in the process, the financial fraud case would get lost in the shuffle.

Alternative priorities, in short, is, I submit, one of the reasons the financial fraud cases were not brought, especially cases against high level individuals that would take many years, many investigators, and a great deal of expertise to investigate. But a second, and less salutary, reason for not bringing such cases is the Government’s own involvement in the underlying circumstances that led to the financial crisis.

On the one hand, the government, writ large, had a hand in creating the conditions that encouraged the approval of dubious mortgages. It was the government, in the form of Congress, that repealed Glass-Steagall, thus allowing certain banks that had previously viewed mortgages as a source of interest income to become instead deeply involved in securitizing pools of mortgages in order to obtain the much greater profits available from trading. It was the government, in the form of both the executive and the legislature, that encouraged deregulation, thus weakening the power and oversight not only of the S.E.C. but also of such diverse banking overseers as the O.T.S. and the O.C.C. It was the government, in the form of the Fed, that kept interest rates low in part to encourage mortgages. It was the government, in the form of the executive, that strongly encouraged banks to make loans to low-income persons who might have previously been regarded as too risky to warrant a mortgage. It was the government, in the form of the government-sponsored entities known as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, that helped create the for-a-time insatiable market for mortgage-backed securities. And it was the government, pretty much across the board, that acquiesced in the ever greater tendency not to require meaningful documentation as a condition of obtaining a mortgage, often preempting in this regard state regulations designed to assure greater mortgage quality and a borrower’s ability to repay.

The result of all this was the mortgages that later became known as “liars’ loans.” They were increasingly risky; but what did the banks care, since they were making their money from the securitizations; and what did the government care, since they were helping to boom the economy and helping voters to realize their dream of owning a home.

Moreover, the government was also deeply enmeshed in the aftermath of the financial crisis. It was the government that proposed the shotgun marriages of Bank of America with Merrill Lynch, of J.P. Morgan with Bear Stearns, etc. If, in the process, mistakes were made and liabilities not disclosed, was it not partly the government’s fault?

Please do not misunderstand me. I am not alleging that the Government knowingly participated in any of the fraudulent practices alleged by the Financial Inquiry Crisis Commission and others. But what I am suggesting is that the Government was deeply involved, from beginning to end, in helping create the conditions that could lead to such fraud, and that this would give a prudent prosecutor pause in deciding whether to indict a C.E.Owho might, with some justice, claim that he was only doing what he fairly believed the Government wanted him to do.

The final factor I would mention is both the most subtle and the most systemic of the three, and arguably the most important, and it is the shift that has occurred over the past 30 years or more from focusing on prosecuting high-level individuals to focusing on prosecuting companies and other institutions. It is true that prosecutors have brought criminal charges against companies for well over a hundred years, but, until relatively recently, such prosecutions were the exception, and prosecutions of companies without simultaneous prosecutions of their managerial agents were even rarer. The reasons were obvious. Companies do not commit crimes; only their agents do. And while a company might get the benefit of some such crimes, prosecuting the company would inevitably punish, directly or indirectly, the many employees and shareholders who were totally innocent. Moreover, under the law of most U.S. jurisdictions, a company cannot be criminally liable unless at least one managerial agent has committed the crime in question; so why not prosecute the agent who actually committed the crime?

In recent decades, however, prosecutors have been increasingly attracted to prosecuting companies, often even without indicting a single individual. This shift has often been rationalized as part of an attempt to transform “corporate cultures,” so as to prevent future such crimes; and, as a result, it has taken the form of “deferred prosecution agreements” or even “non-prosecution agreements,” in which the company, under threat of criminal prosecution, agrees to take various prophylactic measures to prevent future wrongdoing. But in practice, I suggest, it has led to some lax and dubious behavior on the part of prosecutors, with deleterious results.

If you are a prosecutor attempting to discover the individuals responsible for an apparent financial fraud, you go about your business in much the same way you go after mobsters or drug kingpins: you start at the bottom and, over many months or years, slowly work your way up. Specifically, you start by “flipping” some lower level participant in the fraud whom you can show was directly responsible for making one or more false material misrepresentations but who is willing to cooperate in order to reduce his sentence, and – aided by the substantial prison penalties now available in white collar cases – you go up the ladder. For a detailed example of how this works, I recommend Kurt Eichenwald’s well-known book The Informant, which describes how FBI agents, over a period of three years, uncovered the huge price-fixing conspiracy involving high-level executives at Archer Daniels, all of whom were successfully prosecuted.

But if your priority is prosecuting the company, a different scenario takes place. Early in the investigation, you invite in counsel to the company and explain to him or her why you suspect fraud. He or she responds by assuring you that the company wants to cooperate and do the right thing, and to that end the company has hired a former Assistant U.S. Attorney, now a partner at a respected law firm, to do an internal investigation. The company’s counsel asks you to defer your investigation until the company’s own internal investigation is completed, on the condition that the company will share its results with you. In order to save time and resources, you agree. Six months later the company’s counsel returns, with a detailed report showing that mistakes were made but that the company is now intent on correcting them. You and the company then agree that the company will enter into a deferred prosecution agreement that couples some immediate fines with the imposition of expensive but internal prophylactic measures. For all practical purposes the case is now over. You are happy because you believe that you have helped prevent future crimes; the company is happy because it has avoided a devastating indictment; and perhaps the happiest of all are the executives, or former executives, who actually committed the underlying misconduct, for they are left untouched.

I suggest that this is not the best way to proceed. Although it is supposedly justified in terms of preventing future crimes, I suggest that the future deterrent value of successfully prosecuting individuals far outweighs the prophylactic benefits of imposing internal compliance measures that are often little more than window-dressing. Just going after the company is also both technically and morally suspect. It is technically suspect because, under the law, you should not indict or threaten to indict a company unless you can prove beyond a reasonable doubt that some managerial agent of the company committed the alleged crime; and if you can prove that, why not indict the manager? And from a moral standpoint, punishing a company and its many innocent employees and shareholders for the crimes committed by some unprosecuted individuals seems contrary to elementary notions of moral responsibility.

These criticisms take on special relevance, however, in the instance of investigations growing out of the financial crisis, because, as noted, the Department of Justice’s position, until at least very, very recently, is that going after the suspect institutions poses too great a risk to the nation’s economic recovery. So you don’t go after the companies, at least not criminally, because they are too big to jail; and you don’t go after the individuals, because that would involve the kind of years-long investigations that you no longer have the experience or the resources to pursue.

In conclusion, I want to stress again that I have no idea whether the financial crisis that is still causing so many of us so much pain and despondency was the product, in whole or in part, of fraudulent misconduct. But if it was — as various governmental authorities have asserted it was –- then, the failure of the government to bring to justice those responsible for such colossal fraud bespeaks weaknesses in our prosecutorial system that need to be addressed.

Budget office to investigate Flaherty’s $7.1B surprise – Politics – CBC News

Budget office to investigate Flaherty’s $7.1B surprise – Politics – CBC News.

The Parliamentary Budget Office says it will investigate how the Finance department found more than $7 billion in savings for the last fiscal year.The Parliamentary Budget Office says it will investigate how the Finance department found more than $7 billion in savings for the last fiscal year. (Adrian Wyld/Canadian Press)

The surprising revelation last week that Ottawa is almost $7 billion ahead of schedule for eliminating the deficit is attracting the scrutiny of the budget watchdog.

The No. 2 man in the Parliamentary Budget Office says officials have asked the Finance Department for clarification.

“We’ll look at it because it will affect our own numbers, and try and figure out what the source of it is,” says Mostafa Askari.

“There’s a part we still don’t understand … as to why departments spent less than what they were expected to … and why they (Finance) didn’t see it in March,” when the budget was tabled.

In a report last week, the government pegged the deficit for the 2012-13 fiscal year at $18.9 billion, rather than the $25.9 billion estimated in the March budget.

The lion’s share of the difference — about $4.9 billion — came from lower program spending, including on the public service.

Askari said one pressing question is whether the savings were largely a one-time occurrence or will flow through to future years.

If the latter, analysts say, Ottawa may be able to balance the budget next year, one year earlier than the 2015 target, a boon for the Harper Conservatives heading into an election year.

Election promises

The Conservatives have promised to introduce income splitting for tax purposes once the budget is balanced, a measure likely to boost the party’s chances in the scheduled 2015 election.

hi-flaherty-006935352-852 

“But at what cost to Canadians?” says NDP finance critic Peggy Nash.

“This is exactly why the PBO was created and it goes to the heart of accountability for the government. What are the programs and services that have been affected? They won’t say.”

Nash says she believes Prime Minister Stephen Harper has issued orders to get the budget balanced as quickly as possible to load his campaign platform with goodies, noting that in this month’s throne speech, the government pledged more restraint.

Liberal critic Scott Brison says the government’s continuing job cuts are a “fatwa” on the public service — politically driven, and not about helping the economy.

When Flaherty was asked why departments hadn’t spent their approved limits, he joked: “I think I’m scaring them all.”

Underestimating surpluses?

Some critics speculate Flaherty may have been borrowing the tactics of a famous predecessor, Liberal Paul Martin, who set a low bar to look all the better when good numbers arrived.

In Martin’s case, the sizes of surpluses were underestimated, a practice Harper and Flaherty have criticized and pledged to end.

But former PBO Kevin Page, who has quarrelled with Flaherty in the past, said he doesn’t believe the minister is deliberately under-promising on the fiscal numbers.

Page said during the Martin restraint years in the 1990s, officials cut capital expenditures, such as maintenance and upgrades of equipment, but that proved a false economy in the long run. The move only delayed spending to later years and often increased costs.

“I’d worry about the prime minister and finance minister saying there’s too much money in the system, just put the squeeze to it, we don’t care how, because we’re not going to the election in 2015 with some kind of deficit,” he said.

That is becoming increasingly unlikely given the new deficit level, says Scotiabank senior economist Mary Webb, who specializes in federal and provincial finances.

She says the current, lower starting point of $18.9 billion means Flaherty can do much better than the $18.7-billion level he was supposed to get to this fiscal year, which runs to March, making the final leap to balance 2014-2015 possible.

Webb notes that in the March budget, Ottawa forecast the deficit shrinking by $12 billion between the 2013-14 and 2014-15 fiscal years.

“Let’s take an optimistic scenario and say the deficit is down to $10 billion after this year, then the question is can they cut $10 billion in one year. Well they were going to, so why not?”

For that to happen, all would need to go well for the government, she said. And Flaherty himself has noted Ottawa is facing additional costs this year as a result of the Lac-Megantic train derailment and Alberta flooding.

But the minister has also included a sizable $3-billion cushion for “risk” in his projections, so Ottawa is that much closer each year than it is reporting.

Webb says the federal government typically “outperforms its deficit target,” so although unlikely, she says there may be another Flaherty surprise down the road.

 

7 More Years Of Low Rates.. And Then War? | Zero Hedge

7 More Years Of Low Rates.. And Then War? | Zero Hedge.

While chart analogs provide optically pleasing (and often far too shockingly correct) indications of the human herd tendencies towards fear and greed, a glance through the headlines and reporting of prior periods can provide just as much of a concerning ‘analog’ as any chart. In this case, while these 3 pictures can paint a thousand words; a thousand words may also paint the biggest picture of all. It seems, socially and empirically, it is never different this time as these 1936 Wall Street Journal archives read only too well… from devaluations lifting stocks to inflationary side-effects of money flow and from short-covering, money-on-the-sidelines, Jobs, Europe, low-volume ramps, BTFD, and profit-taking, to brokers advising stocks for the long-run before a 40% decline.

Stocks look eerily similar…

Income inequality has ramped back to the same levels…

 

 

and Rates look awfully similar…. (h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)

and that didn’t end well… (War!)

But when we look at the headlines in the Wall Street Journal from mid 1936 to mid 1937 as the market topped out, dipped, was bought back (orange oval), then collapsed 40% in 3 months, nothing ever changes…

 

 

Government Bailouts Repaid – Bullish Implications…

N.Y. Central Has Repaid All Government Loans
The Wall Street Journal, 978 words
Dec 1, 1936
WASHINGTON Numerous railroad developments here yesterday were climaxed by the announcement of RFC Chairman Jesse H. Jones that New York Central had repaid all of its government loans, totaling $16,858,950, most of which was not due until 1941.

The Buying Is Not Speculation – Cash On The Sidelines…

It’s Cash Bull Market With Little Inflation, Says Exchange Bulletin
The Wall Street Journal, 169 words
Dec 16, 1936
“This is eminently a cash market, and as such is relatively devoid of that major characteristic of speculative inflation, the use of borrowed money.” says the December Bulletin of the N.Y. Stock Exchange.

Inflationary Side-Effects – Buy It All It’s Going Up…

Wheat Prices Soar To 7-Year Highs On Heavy Buying Stimulated by Broad Advances in Foreign Pits
The Wall Street Journal, 1497 words
Dec 19, 1936
CHICAGO An avalanche of buying, encouraged by buoyancy in foreign markets, particularly in Winnipeg, swept wheat prices to the highest levels since December, 1929, Friday.

 

But… 3 days before…

The Wall Street Journal, 1027 words
Dec 16, 1936
As commodity prices continued to advance yesterday to the accompaniment of increasing public speculation in futures markets, signs of a feeling of caution appeared from widely separated centers.

As Goes The US So Goes The Rest Of The World…

London Trade Stimulated By Wall Street Strength; Averages at New Highs
The Wall Street Journal, 859 words
Nov 6, 1936
LONDON Overnight strength in Wall Street considerably stimulated the stock market yesterday. Dealers again arrived earlier than usual in anticipation of activity in international issues and found large buying orders in these stocks awaiting execution.

Global Economy To Lift Stocks…

London, New York Stock Transactions Largest in Months – British Brokers Stand in Queues to Fill Orders Activity Ascribed to World Efforts to Revive Trade
The Wall Street Journal, 956 words
Oct 8, 1936
Growing realization that the determined international effort now being made to sweep away trade barriers will be followed by improved business conditions throughout the world brought a rush of business to the security markets in New York and London yesterday such as not been seen for months.

Devaluation Always A Winner… (Market Prices Prove Economy Likes It)

Wall Street Weighs Devaluation Effects On U.S. Markets; Sees Little Likelihood of Dumping

 The Wall Street Journal, 1759 words
Sep 28, 1936
Rising security and commodity markets Saturday gave ample indication of the financial district’s “bullish” interpretation of the U.S. Anglo-French monetary agreement.

Markets Cheerful Over Devaluation; Morgenthau Not Afraid of Dumping
Selective Buying Here and Abroad Motors and Other Shares Held To Benefit From Improved World Trade Are Strong Commodities Less Responsive International Markets
The Wall Street Journal, 1726 words
Sep 29, 1936
A note of cautious optimism was sounded by leading stock exchanges of the world which were open for business yesterday.

Equity Valuations Irrelevant…

Earnings Yield of 15 Stocks 4.8%, Compared with 9.4% Ten Years Ago
The Wall Street Journal, 1280 words
Aug 7, 1936
Industrial earning power is valued nearly twice as highly in the current stock market as it was ten years ago.

Europe Ever The Optimist Even In The Face Of Dismal Reality…

France Optimistic Despite Continuing European Tension – Growing Franco-English Cooperation Inspires Confidence
The Wall Street Journal, 652 words
Dec 5, 1936
Despite the unabated international tension and sudden menace of a constitutional crisis in Great Britain, the continuance of quarrels between Right and Left wings of the Popular Front, and the persistent antagonism between employers and labor, the general feeling in France is rather optimistic than pessimistic.

Short Covering As Ever…

Active Short Covering Sweeps Grain Prices To New High Levels – Chases Bears
The Wall Street Journal, 1345 words
Dec 2, 1936
New highs for the season were recorded in wheat, corn, rye and oats Tuesday. Spot red winter wheat advanced to the highest level since February, 1929. The sharp upturn, which boosted December corn almost 5 cents, and December wheat about 3 cents, was due principally to short covering by those made uneasy over the sale of an unusually large quantity of spot wheat out of local store, and by generous snowfall over the grain belt. Early in the session the market ruled easy on reports of rain and snow, and predictions for continued unsettled weather.

Government Spending Cuts Cause Concern…

Sabotaging Federal Economy
The Wall Street Journal, 412 words
Dec 5, 1936
Even the modest beginning which is attempted by WPA officials to reduce cost of government by cutting down the relief roles is encountering strong opposition. It is perhaps only natural that the workers themselves should object, although their methods of protesting through “sitdown” strikes, not to mention the violence which has manifested itself, may be open to question. But much more …

States And Taxes…

Sales Tax Repeal May Unbalance Kentucky Finances

The Wall Street Journal, 1002 words
Jan 14, 1936
LOUISVILLE, Ky.–Repeal of Kentucky’s 3% sales tax, effective the moment Governor Albert B. Chandler signs it, probably Wednesday will deprive the state of $3,500,000 of revenue budgeted to the expiration of the biennium ending June 30, 1936 and the counties of $1,750,000.

The Foreign Money Will Save Us…

 Financial Centers Expect Greater Foreign Interest in Our Securities As Congress Delays Alien Tax Boost – Foreign Interest Here

The Wall Street Journal, 765 words
Aug 6, 1937
Some resumption of foreign interest…

Money On The Sidelines…

The Wall Street Journal, 590 words

Jul 1, 1937
While the Street remains in a cautious frame of mind, there are undoubtedly more possible buyers than sellers around, and it would not take a lot of encouragement to get these gentlemen aboard. Feeling in brokerage circles is that stocks are more likely to advance on any break in the unpleasant headlines these days than to decline far on a continuation of current uncertainties.

Jobs And Europe never far from fear…

The Wall Street Journal, 683 words

Jun 29, 1937
Certainly the market was more active on the downside, which surprised a lot of traders who had expected otherwise. The labor and foreign situations remain the main factors in the picture, and brokers feel that these have not changed one whit for the better thus far.

Buy The F##king Dip…

 The Wall Street Journal, 508 words

Aug 24, 1937
A rather depressed feeling is extant in Wall Street as small volume and lower prices continue. Yet there are not many bears in the Street so far as the long pull is concerned. Traders still are stubborn in their theory that stocks are reactionary at the moment from lack of interest rather than any important liquidation. This is the period of the year when business takes a final breathing spell before the more active Fall and some think the stock market is doing likewise and that better days are ahead.

Rallies had Real Volume Then – No Low Volume Ramps…

The Wall Street Journal, 564 words

Aug 16, 1937
If Saturday’s volume was any indication, revived interest in the stock market is here in the opinion of the Street. Furthermore the scope of trading Friday and Saturday indicated a broadening interest which included medium priced as well as low priced issues on contrast to the extended period wherein so-called “quality” stocks held sway in a limited market with small volume.

And At The Top… Brokers Suggest Stocks For The Long-Run (based on ‘expectations’)

 The Wall Street Journal, 665 words

Aug 7, 1937
Profit taking for the week-end brought prices down in yesterday’s market, but the undertone remained steady and brokers said there was nothing important in the character of the selling. Many houses were advising the purchase of favored issues on any further reactions. Metal shares ended the day with advances in many cases. There was impressive buying reported in the copper issues largely for long pull purposes.

The Wall Street Journal, 649 words
Aug 10, 1937
While volume left much to be desired, the expectation of stronger and more active markets continued to pervade Wall Street. Moreover, the general business picture is regarded as more pleasing than at any time since the so-called Summer “lull” came into force. Incidentally, the seasonal letdown thus far has not proved to be as extensive as many predicted and expected. Brokers say that many clients are away and that there are others who will be replacing their sold-out long positions in coming weeks.

See – it really is never different this time. It merely appears so since – as Kyle Bass so eloquently noted, the brevity of financial memory is about two years…

 

 

EU leaders vow to tackle youth unemployment – Europe – Al Jazeera English

EU leaders vow to tackle youth unemployment – Europe – Al Jazeera English.

Over seven million European people aged between 15-24 are neither in work, education or training [Reuters]
Heads of state of 24 European nations have met to discuss rising unemployment among European youths, insisting that the situation will improve over the next two years.

The leaders, who met in Paris on Tuesday, announced no new programmes but pledged to push plans already in place to reverse the rising joblessness for the under 25’s.

With budgets still tight and austerity measures in place, Europe’s youth unemployment rate stands at 23.5 percent, up from 23.1 percent a year ago.

A total of 7.5 million aged 15 to 24 are neither in work, education or training.

Europe has 45 billion euros ($60b) between 2013 and 2015 to tackle youth unemployment.

French President Francois Hollande said the meeting had set a strategy to ensure that by 2015, no youth will spend more than four months unemployed without being offered a job, an apprenticeship, training or education.

“We must act quickly because it is urgent, we cannot abandon a generation,” Hollande said at a news conference.

Hollande said the leaders agreed that European Union nations which have action plans to combat youth unemployment by the end of the year will begin drawing upon the 6 billion euro ($8bn) Youth Employment Initiative that the EU has set aside beginning on January 1.

As of 2011, only 34 percent of 15-29 year-olds in Europe were employed, the lowest figure ever recorded.

However, the EU employment figure masks huge disparities. Germany’s youth unemployment rate stands at 7.7 percent whilst Greece’s is 57.3 percent.

Seven EU countries had a youth jobless rate over 30 percent, fueling concern that a generation of people will be locked out of the job market, hurting long-term growth prospects for their nations.

One EU think-tank estimated that the cost to Europe of employing so few of its young people reached 153 billion euros annually as of 2011.

 

The Biggest Threat To Minimum Wage Restaurant Workers Everywhere? | Zero Hedge

The Biggest Threat To Minimum Wage Restaurant Workers Everywhere? | Zero Hedge.

Over the past year, unionized restaurant workers across numerous fast-food chains but mostly at McDonalds, expressed their dissatisfaction with compensation levels by striking at increasingly more frequent intervals – a sentiment that has been facilitated by the president himself and his ever more frequent appeals for a raise in the minimum wage. Unfortunately, as we have pointed out previously, in the context of corporations that have given up on growing the top line (as virtually all free cash goes into stock buybacks and dividends and none into growth capex), and in pursuit of a rising bottom line, employee wages are the one variable cost that corporations will touch last of all. But what’s worse, these same unionized employees have zero negotiating leverage.

Perhaps nowhere is this more visible than in the recent strategy of smoothie retailer Jamba Juice, which in order to battle a 4% drop in Q3 same store sales has decided to radically transform its entire retailing strategy by getting rid of labor, cheap, part-time or otherwise, altogether. Presenting the biggest threat to minimum-wage restaurant workers everywhere: the JambaGo self-serve machine that just made the vast majority of Jamba’s employees obsolete. Coming soon to a fast-food retailer near you.

Why did Jamba just make its retail sales force obsolete? Part of the problem is heightened competition: McDonald’s has entered the smoothie market, and others like Dairy Queen and Panera spent the summer promoting their rival drinks. Which means even less top-line growth potential. It also means that in order to push more of the top line straight to earnings, and bypass variable costs, a problem that will be faced by increasingly more corporations, Jamba’s corner office had no choice but to unleash JambaGo.

Bloomberg reports:

The smoothie chain is hoping to see improvement from something it calls “JambaGo,” a self-serve machine that can be installed in cafeterias, schools, and convenience stores. Jamba Juice makes money by selling the prepackaged, pre-blended smoothie ingredients to JambaGo vendors, like a soda maker selling syrup to the owner of a soda fountain. The advantages: Jamba doesn’t need to build a store and the labor costs are much lower compared with hiring staff to concoct made-to-order drinks.

 

The company expects this model to help expand its brand more quickly and cheaply. Last quarter, however, revenue from the JambaGo program amounted to just about $400,000. But having recently landed a deal with Target (TGT) to put JambaGo machines in 1,000 Target Cafés, the company will soon have installed more than 1,800 machines (up from only 404 at the start of 2013). By contrast, there are currently about 850 Jamba Juice stores.

 

Based on a goal of $2,000 in annual revenue per JambaGo, the rough math for 1,800 machines is $3.6 million—a decent boost for a company that took in $228.8 million in revenue last year. Another 1,000 are planned for 2014, which would bring in another $2 million in annual revenue.

Here’s what happens next: Jamba will do what every other company does to demonstrate that its radical strategy is successful – fudge the numbers and beat EPS for several quarters. This will happen even if JambaGo is ultimately yet another loss leader. However, its peers will watch closely and soon decide to roll out their own version of just this: a self-contained dispenser of a la carte prepared fast-food food, either liquid or solid, and in the process let go tens of thousands of their own minimum-wage employees, also known to shareholders as “costs.”

What happens after that should be clear to everyone: more unemployment, lower wages for the remaining employees, worse worker morale, but even higher profits to holders of capital. And so on. Because in a world in which technology makes the unqualified worker utterely irrelevant, this is what is known as “progress.”

 

Venezuela Dispatches Army To Enforce Appliance “Fair Price” Ceiling After Looting Ensues | Zero Hedge

Venezuela Dispatches Army To Enforce Appliance “Fair Price” Ceiling After Looting Ensues | Zero Hedge.

Over the weekend, in “Venezuela Government “Occupies” Electronics Retail Chain, Enforces “Fair” Prices“, we reported that unpopular president Nicolas Maduro ordered the “occupation” of a chain of electronic goods stores in a crackdown on what the socialist government views as price-gouging hobbling the country’s economy. Various managers of the five-store, 500-employee Daka chain – the local equivalent of Best Buy – have been arrested, and the company would be forced to sell products at “fair prices.” Since then things have escalated rapidly. Because as we queried, and many wondered, the first question that arose is how would Maduro i) assure that prices were indeed kept at their “fair values” and ii) how would the cool, calm and orderly social order be preserved when suddenly everyone scrambles to buy all those flatscreens (which may have certain operational problems once the socialist paradise is hit with daily electric brown and blackouts very soon) they have been dreaming of for years. Now we know: with the help of the army.

NBC reports that in his “fight” against the economic “war” that he says the political opposition, in collusion with the United States, is waging against Venezuela, President Nicolas Maduro ordered the military occupation of a chain of electronics stores over the weekend, forcing the company to charge “fair” prices. This is happening hours after Maduro also promised that he will lower prices of mobile phones: will battalion regimens be tasked with making sure iPhone 5S are sold at a net profit for Apple?

But back to serious matters such as how brilliant socialist decrees result in immediate looting:

Pictures shared on social media as well as local newspaper reports said that one store in the country’s central city of Valencia faced looting. Some critics suggested that the entire operation was a form of looting organized by the government, just in time for municipal elections in December.

“This is for the good of the nation,” Maduro said on state television. “Leave nothing on the shelves, nothing in the warehouses … Let nothing remain in stock!”

Pay attention: this is coming to every “developed” banana republic near you.

Head of the High Commission for the People’s Defence of the Economy Hebert Garcia Plaza attempted to explain the government’s decision to take over Daka on state television on Friday, accusing the chain of unfair markups.

 

From a Daka store in Caracas, the government minister tweeted a picture of a washer/dryer that “cost 39,000 VEF on November 1 and today costs 59,000 VEF, a nearly 100 percent rise in a week.”

And while observed from the outside what is going on in Venezuela is a hoot, it hardly is to those stuck in the socialist paradise:

Local economist Jose Guerra, a former Central Bank official, was critical of not just the events at Daka but the bigger picture. “Food today, hunger tomorrow,” he wrote on Twitter.

 

Venezuela’s opposition leader, Henrique Capriles, has long blamed the government for the state of the country’s economy. On Saturday, he tweeted: “Everything Maduro does leads to further destruction of the economy.”

 

“Today it’s Daka. Tomorrow it’ll be the banks where you save your money,” tweeted Maria G. Colmenares, a professor at a local university.

 

Oscar Diaz resorted to sarcasm to make his point:“Daka had flour, sugar, milk and other basics. The shortage is over! Ah sorry, they sell [appliances]! Oops.”

At this point there is little left to comment on either Venezuela, or the rest of the world that has adopted the same “fairness doctrine” principle. Best to just sit back and consume the trans-fat free popcorn.

The Wages of Fear | Epsilon Theory

The Wages of Fear | Epsilon Theory.

wages1

You don’t know what fear is. But you’ll see. It’s catching, it’s catching like small pox! And once you get it, it’s for life! So long, boys, and good luck.

– Henri-Georges Clouzot, “The Wages of Fear”

 

I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me.

–  Frank Herbert, “Dune”

 

In “The Wages of Fear”, Yves Montand and three other down-on-their-luck French expats agree to drive two truckloads of unstable nitroglycerin hundreds of miles across an impossibly difficult South American terrain. Driving 30 minutes apart so that the destruction of one truck won’t blow up the other, the two teams wind their way across one obstacle after another, facing the constant danger that an unanticipated bump will mean their deaths. One truck blows up in just such an unexpected way, killing two of the drivers in a giant fireball. A third driver is killed in the effort to traverse a final obstacle, a huge pit of oil and muck, but the lone truck and single surviving driver make it to their destination with the deadly cargo intact. Paid double wages … enough to live comfortably for years … and recovered from his exhaustion, the surviving driver must only drive the unloaded truck back to the origination point, where his girlfriend has already started putting together a celebratory party. But living with constant and overwhelming fear has changed the surviving driver’s psyche. He starts taking crazy chances driving the perfectly safe truck home, ultimately taking a turn way too fast and careening to his death in the chasm below. The End.

This is what living with fear does to an individual, a tribe, or a nation … it warps their view of the world and creates massive behavioral change even after the source of that fear is removed. These are the wages of fear, and this is the hidden and awful cost of 9/11 and Lehman’s collapse.

In the immediate aftermath of 9/11, we created a massive NSA eavesdropping and spying apparatus to combat the very real and immediate threat posed by a decentralized terrorist organization that we suspected had significant sovereign sponsors. Today al Qaeda is a pale shadow of its former self, and its sovereign sponsors are in retreat or eliminated. We won this war. Yet we have not scaled back or reduced our spying apparatus. On the contrary, we have created a bureaucratic and judicial structure to support the program, and we are expandingits technical and operational scope to identify and combat potential threats to national security. Why? Because our collective fear of another 9/11 has created a social and political sanction for such a bureaucratic capture. And because these potential threats to national security will always be present, this emergency NSA eavesdropping policy has become a permanent government program with enormous social and economic costs.

In the immediate aftermath of Lehman’s collapse, we created a massive monetary policy program called Quantitative Easing to combat the very real and immediate threat posed by a deflationary spiral as markets seized up. Today there is zero chance of a deflationary freefall with a US epicenter, and we have returned to our regularly scheduled entertainment of a lackluster business cycle. We won this war. Yet we have not scaled back or reduced our QE apparatus. On the contrary, we have created a bureaucratic and judicial structure to support the program, and we are expanding its technical and operational scope to identify and combat potential threats to economic security. Why? Because our collective fear of another Great Recession has created a social and political sanction for such a bureaucratic capture.  And because these potential threats to economic security will always be present, this emergency QE policy has become a permanent government program with enormous social and economic costs.

In the parlance of strategic military doctrine, we have transformed our goals from fighting a responsive war against a specific threat that has injured us to fighting apreventive war against a potential threat that might injure us in the future. There’s nothing inherently wrong or stupid with fighting a preventive war, but it has a very different set of goals and effective social modalities than a responsive war. If this is our choice … fine, but let’s make it an honest choice as opposed to a fait accompli imposed on us by powerful interests. It’s always important to call things by their proper names, but never more so than when you’re fighting a war.

The classic example of a preventive war is the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941. Squeezed mercilessly by the coal, oil, and steel embargo imposed by the US, the Japanese leadership concluded that although they would probably lose a war with the US, they would definitely lose the peace. Rather than accept the slow decline of the status quo and the economic constraints imposed by US policy, Japan decided to accelerate an outcome by launching the Pearl Harbor attack.

While there are quite a few historical examples of insurgent or up-and-coming countries like Japan challenging dominant or status quo countries with a preventive war, it’s actually rather hard to find examples of a dominant country starting a preventive war. That’s probably because dominant countries have other policy levers they can pull – like a coal, oil, and steel embargo – to keep the insurgent countries in their place without resorting to war. But we have a very good example of the consideration of preventive war by a dominant country in the internal US debate over how to deal with the growing power of the Soviet Union and China in the 1950’s and 1960’s. By examining the arguments in favor of preventive war (or its close cousin, pre-emptive war) made by some US strategists during this period, and why those arguments were ultimately rejected in favor of a less aggressive policy of containment, we can gain some insights into the risks and rewards of the preventive wars we are currently fighting and why we might prefer a less aggressive approach.

Here’s a snapshot and a few indicative quotes from probably the most effective and outspoken proponent of a preventive/pre-emptive stance regarding US nuclear policy – Curtis LeMay.

wages2

Gen. Curtis LeMay, Air Force Strategic Air Command (SAC), youngest 4-star general since Ulysses Grant, 1968 Vice-Presidential candidate with George Wallace

Killing Japanese didn’t bother me very much at the time. I suppose if I had lost the war I would have been tried as a war criminal. …

 

I think there are many times when it would be most efficient to use nuclear weapons. However, the public opinion in this country and throughout the world throw up their hands in horror when you mention nuclear weapons, just because of the propaganda that’s been fed to them. …

 

That’s the reason some schools of thinking don’t rule out a destruction of the Chinese military potential before the situation grows worse than it is today. It’s bad enough now.

 

It’s easy from our modern perspective to poke fun at how LeMay presented himself with a giant cigar, and it’s very hard to get comfortable with a man who directed the low-altitude firebombing campaign of Japanese civilian populations and who ran on a national ticket with noted segregationist George Wallace. But LeMay was also a brilliant contributor to the US victory in the Cold War. He almost singlehandedly transformed SAC into the most powerful warfighting force in human history (my favorite story is the mock bombing run he ordered on Dayton, Ohio to figure out which of his pilots could hit a target), and it would be a mistake to underestimate his arguments just because we don’t like his politics.

LeMay’s advocacy of preventive/pre-emptive war is based on a very specific utility function –nothing is worse than US military defeat. If that’s your view, that it’s better to be dead than Red, then a preventive attack on a relatively growing Soviet Union or China is an easy call. Far better to strike today, when the correlation of forces (to use a phrase favored by Soviet strategists of the day) were still tilted to the US, than tomorrow when we might not be so fortunate. Because the avoidance of US military defeat was LeMay’s end all and be all goal, he was prepared to “do whatever it takes” including “the killing of a nation” (his words) in the furtherance of that goal.

Anyone who says that he or she is prepared to “do whatever it takes”, whether it’s Mario Draghi and Angela Merkel talking about support of the euro, Ben Bernanke talking about preventing deflation, George W. Bush talking about pursuit of terrorism, or Barack Obama talking about growing the economy … is making a preventive war argument just like Curtis LeMay. Not a preventive war against a particular nation, but a preventive war against some conceptual social ill. Of course, you can’t defeat a conceptual social ill like you can defeat a nation. You can’t accept the surrender of General Deflation. These social ills will always be with us in one form or another, which means that a preventive war in the modern context is a permanent and constant war.

It may not seem like we are on a war footing when it comes to NSA eavesdropping or QE, because the trappings of war … mobilizations, set battles, etc. … may not be present. But the language associated with a war footing is definitely present, and this is what creates the social space that allows these policies to exist and thrive. I am struck almost every day by how the language of extremism and war pervades our domestic political and social institutions, on both the left and the right. I hear the voice of Curtis LeMay everywhere! Unfortunately, I think it’s a voice that tends to promote the wages of fear, and I’m certain it’s avoice that drives game-playing in markets. But it’s also a voice that diminishes as it is identified for what it is, and that’s a pretty worthy goal for Epsilon Theory.

 

What Happens in Vegas, Doesn’t Stay in Vegas – New Street Lights Can Record Audio and Video | A Lightning War for Liberty

What Happens in Vegas, Doesn’t Stay in Vegas – New Street Lights Can Record Audio and Video | A Lightning War for Liberty.

The Intellistreets system has finally come to the corridors of Las Vegas. So what is Intellistreets?

On its website, the system is described as “the only wireless information and control network for sustainability, security and entertainment.” Even more amusing, the company that owns the Intellistreets system is rather appropriately called Illuminating Concepts. The best part is that city officials claim “right nowour intention is not to have any cameras or recording device.”

This is far from the first time we have learned about the installation of devices that can record audio and video being surreptitiously put in public places. I covered this late last year with regard to how the Department of Homeland Security was using grants to fund the placement of such devices on buses in my piece: Public Buses Adding Microphones to Record Passenger Conversations. 

Now from CNET:

Las Vegas, you see, has invested in Intellistreets. These aren’t streets that carry you along, so that you don’t have to put one foot in front of the other.

Instead, this is a lighting system that, as MyNews3 reported, enjoys “all sorts of fancy features.”

These lights can broadcast messages and play music. Which sounds very Vegas.

However, they have other aspects: they can shoot video and record sound.

This being Vegas, you will understand the words of Neil Rohleder of the city’s Public Works Department: “We want to develop an experience for the people who come downtown.”

But what kind of experience are they truly developing? The company behind Intellistreets, Illuminating Concepts has as its motto: “Assisting in the Creation of Memorable Environments since 1981.” The word “memorable” might interest some.

Las Vegas public works Director Jorge Cervantes told MyNews3 that this was all entirely innocent: “Right now our intention is not to have any cameras or recording device. It’s just to provide output out there, not to get any feed or video feed coming back.”

Indeed, the explanatory video of how the system works spends most of its time presenting a compelling case for its excellence.

Near the end, however, there is this phrase: “Intellistreets also enables a myriad of homeland security features.”

This is what they look like.

Enjoy Big Brother Vegas.

Full article here.

In Liberty,
Mike

Study urges privacy policy for potentially ‘intrusive’ drones – Politics – CBC News

Study urges privacy policy for potentially ‘intrusive’ drones – Politics – CBC News.

 Related Stories

There must be clear policies about the sort of personal information flying drones are allowed to collect before Canadian police and others begin using them on a large scale, warns a new study.

The groundbreaking research report on drones — unmanned eyes in the sky — urges law enforcement agencies, governments and privacy commissioners to work together to ensure civil liberties are respected as more of the miniature craft take to the air.

It says unmanned aerial vehicles, or UAVs, can offer potentially significant cost savings for police and could be useful for responding to emergencies or performing mundane chores.

However, the “potential for intrusive and massive surveillance” means public discussion is needed to reassure Canadians they will not be arbitrarily spied upon, the study concludes.

Ultimately, the federal government “lacks a clear policy” on the devices, it adds.

Study finds many unanswered questions

A copy of the study, to be released next week, was made available to The Canadian Press by authors Christopher Parsons and Adam Molnar of Block G Privacy and Security Consulting.

They sifted through academic articles, court rulings and revealing Access to Information documents, uncovering many unanswered questions about the budding technology along the way.

The devices, which range in size from a bird to a small plane, are usually outfitted with cameras but can also carry thermal imaging devices, licence plate readers and laser radar. They can be potent military weapons and, in peacetime, are used for everything from filming movie scenes and detecting radiation to monitoring crowds and photographing accident scenes.

In Canada, UAVs are regulated by Transport Canada as aircraft under the Canadian Aviation Regulations.

The RCMP is eyeing creation of a national fleet of small helicopter-like drones with cameras to help investigate offences, reconstruct traffic accidents, and assist with search-and-rescue.

The Mounties have said they are not being used for general surveillance of people or vehicles.

‘Keen interest’ from Canadian police forces

The study notes keen interest from Canadian police forces, but says law enforcement agencies have not “sought feedback from the public on how UAVs should or should not be adopted as a tool to serve the public interest.”

The authors also cite safety and security concerns, including the potential for crashes or even the hacking of a drone to intercept the data it is collecting or make it steer off course.

Among the study’s recommendations:

— Police should engage in “wholesome consultations” with the public on the privacy implications of drones;

— Establishment of a provincial-federal working committee to develop drone policy for Canadian police;

— Creation of policies that spell out the sort of information drones can gather, how long it kept, the way it may be shared and how people can learn whether they have been spied upon.

“The time for such well-balanced policy making is now,” the study says.

Federal privacy watchdog ‘closely following’ expanded use

In her recent annual report, federal privacy commissioner JenniferStoddart notes that National Defence uses drones “in field operations outside Canada” while the National Research Council has planned limited trials with the aim of improving navigation.

A late 2012 poll conducted by Stoddart’s office found that four out of five people surveyed were comfortable with police use of drones for search-and-rescue missions.

But only two of five approved of their use in monitoring public events or protests.

“Considering the capacity of UAVs for surreptitious operation, the potential for the technology to be used for general surveillance purposes, and their increasing prevalence — including for civilian purposes — our office will be closely following their expanded use,” says the annual report.

“We will also continue to engage federal government institutions to ensure that any planned operation of UAVs is done in accordance with privacy requirements.”

 

Global Debt, Global Currency » Golem XIV – Thoughts

Global Debt, Global Currency » Golem XIV – Thoughts.

by  on OCTOBER 17, 2013 in LATEST

With the latest installment of the ‘US debt ceiling’ melodrama over, for now, perhaps it’s a good time to ask, what was it all about really?

I know that officially it was supposed to be an edge of your seat, high stakes thriller about how much debt the US government can carry before some disaster strikes, and who has the authority to decide. But I think that behind the lumbering domestic stage show there was actually a different, larger battle, with different stakes, being played out. The debt ceiling debate was, to my mind, something of a proxy war. Real for those caught up in its angry rhetoric, but seen from further away, clearly just a local manifestation of something deeper, and something being directed by different people than those making speaches in the spot-light.

Actually I think the fight over the US debt ceiling is a proxy for who controls the world’s real reserve currency. And that currency is not the dollar. I suggest we would understand events more simply if we recognized that the world’s real reserve currency is debt -pure debt.  We should not be confused by the fact that debt, globally, is denominated in several forms. Much like the dollar comes in bills of ten and twenty,  so the debt currency comes in dollars, euros, Yen and Yuan. But they are not the currency itself they are just the different bills it comes in.

In Britain we have pound notes issued by the Bank of England but also by the Royal Bank of Scotland, Clydesdale and Ulster Bank, but they are not different currencies, they are all pounds no matter whose logo in on the notes. I think globally we are now in the early and perhaps not quite recognized days of a similar situation. It is debt which is globally traded and used to settle and value all deals everywhere. The problem is this global debt system is not yet fully formed. It is still umbillically tied to the old system of national currencies and their issuers. And like mummies everywhere the old issuers like to think they are in charge long after they no longer are.

If you are willing to accept this idea, at least for argument’s sake, then the domestic dramas in different countries over how much of this or that kind of debt backed note, with this or that logo on it, should be permitted, take on a different character. I am not saying that the domestic arguments over how many dollars or euros can be printed up, how much debt should be carried are unimportant. They are important and do have profound real life consequences for people and businesses. But I am saying that the driving logic is not domestic and nor is it controlled or even understood by most of the domestic players.

Think of the Vietnam war. In Vietnam it was North vesus South. But for the wider world North and South were just proxies for a much deeper conflict of Communism versus America. And the politicians of South Vietnam were not really in charge of very much. I think this is increasingly the situation of domestic politicans when it comes to finance, debts and currency. Only they don’t yet know this one vital fact. Thus we have the dis-spiriting spectacle of watching the fag ends of our representative democracy argue about things most of them do not understand. An endless stage show where the actors strut and fret, and deliver their lines with gusto, pulling with all their puffed-up might on the familiar levers of power available to them, expecting applause. Yet all the while their drama and the levers of power they squable over are less and less connected to the actual engines of change.

The Democrats and Republicans think they are arguing over who should control the amount of debt the Fed will take on. Not realizing that neither of them, neither Republican nor Democrat controls the matter over which they are arguing. Neither do they realize – not fully at least – that theirs is no longer a theatre of power, it is mostly just a theatre. Power, fundamental power,  has moved elsewhere.

What the debt-celing debate was about, I suggest, was a fight between those who think they control the Fed and the currency (because once they did) and those who do control it but would prefer we not quite realize this.

I think the real battle going on is between the financial players led by the global banks, assorted funds and Insurers, all of whom are very much addicted to fiat debt-money, and a dwindling cadre of politicians who still think central banks control the currencies and elected officials decide how much debt is enough.

This latter group seemingly cannot understand why they can’t get the Fed or the ECB to do what they both said, ever since 2008, they would do, which is to ‘exit’ or to use the prefered term ‘taper’ the ‘extraordinary’ and ‘temporary’ measures they took in 2007, then took again in 2008 and again in 2009 and again in 2010 and 2011 and 2012 and 2013. Which is, let’s be fair to our puzzled politicans and pundits, a confusingly frequent use of ‘extraordinary’ and a long time for ‘temporary’. Hence their confusion.

What our politicians – most of them but crucially not all of them – seem reluctant to underdstand is that neither the FED nor the ECB nor any other central authority, can limit the amount of debt that is issued into the global markets. The banks issue the debt not governments. But that debt, conjured into existence by extending loans does then, particularly in periods of market uncertainty, ‘need’ – or rather or ‘demand’  – backing from a national currency. This creates a pressure on central banks to ‘issue’ more sovereign debt paper to provide the backing for the ALREADY created debt.

The big banks issue the reserve currency. It is a global reserve currency and replaced the dollar some time ago, only no one noticed becaue they kept the old brand name going. It’s not even as if it is just American financial intitutions which issue dollar debt which the Fed finds itself being forced to cover – foreign banks do it to. And anyone who issues dollar denominated debt has a hand on the strings which move the Fed around. Obviously the same is true for other major currencies and their central banks.

The governments and central banks can try to influence the creation of debt though interest rates or ‘stress tests’ and setting levels of ‘regulatory capital’ that must be held. But all of these can be and are gamed by the banks. And when gaming is not sufficient then a debt crisis can be brought in to play to force the reluctant politicians to do what they ‘must’. And that last ploy is the debt ceiling.

Once private debt has been created the central banks are under-pressure to create public debt with which to back it. They know this is how it works they are on record as saying so. But they are caught in a dilemma. The politicians and the public think the government and central banks are in charge and can tell the markets how much debt is enough. The central banks know they do not really have this power because in reality it is the markets not the central banks who are in charge and  decide how much debt is good for THEM.

What can the central banks do? Nominally they work for the government. The people even think they work for them (ho ho!) Whereas the logic which controls lies in the markets and the levers are in the banks. If the Central banks were to come clean and tell the government and the public who is really in charge, who they really work for, what would happen? So they don’t come clean, at least not in public, leaving the poltiicans to argue fatuously amoung themselves for our entertainment.

There are only a limited number of end games I think. The issuance of debt will go on despite the increasing drama of the decisions. The question for the banks will be how best to manage it with the minimum of fuss and least chance of the real situation becoming too clear too early.

Debt issuance will go on because the present economic system, fueled as it is by debt, requires growth above the rate of interest they are all charging each other. The Pension companies require more growth than that because they have long term obligations to pay out at a higher rate. In boom times growth takes care of itself. In bad time that growth ‘must’ be provided by ‘stimulus’ AKA public debt. The minimum growth they want for the headlines is 3%. Which seems reasonable till you do the maths and find 3% growth means a doubling every 17 years. Given the frequency of ‘busts’ built into the debt based system and how much they cost the public each time – (and they are built in – I explained one aspect of this in the last part of the Securitization series. (For completeness here are parts 1 and 2.)  This series is my take on the same logic than Minsky had of course already come to before and more fully) – it is clear how much ‘growth’ is going to be based on public debt. So the debt will grow.

But while it does, other parts of the economic system and their political friends will complain about the size of the debt. So there will continue to be a pressure to stop the debt ‘getting out of control’. How to sqaure this idiot’s circle? The answer is already here only in its infant form. Public Debt created to back private debts will be ‘required’ to grow. Public debt for other things will therefore be under pressure to be cut. So far what has been cut has been the easy and the small beer.

The sums ‘saved’ have been tiny in comparison with the sums created in order to ‘help’ the financial system, even though the misery created in cutting them has been huge. But who cares about miserable poor people when you’re a rich happy one? Nevertheless the sums saved through ‘austerity’ are not going to be sufficient over even the medium term of the next decade. The ‘savings’ need to be orders of magnitude greater. For that the only option is to target the long term, ‘unfunded commitments of health, state pension and long term welfare. These are what the bankers will target when people have been softened up and the next bust hits.

The option I think they will go for is complete privatization of health, welfare and state pension.

All these long term ‘unfunded obligations’ as they are called appear in public debt accounts as future liabilities, future debts. But as soon as the same obligations are shifted to the private sector they become future profits rather than future debts. No matter that people might not be able to pay for them – accountants are not paid to worry about such details. To you and me it might seem daft to think that by moving things from one column to another , from public to private that this will suddenly make things better. And of course it won’t. The private sector will argue it will be ‘better’ because they are so much more ‘efficient’. Believe that if you like.  But the main thing is the acounting exercise will make the number in the public debt column go down.

The important thing for any discussion of public debt levels, is that removing these ‘obligations’ from the public account suddenly cuts the future public debt. Freeing up all that now uncommitted future debt to be available for pumping into the private financial sector . Which it would suddenly make ‘good economic sense’ to help, given the now very buoyant future demand for private health, pensions and welfare provision.

Public debt is always seen by the financial world as a drain, an obligation. The same obligations re-cast as serivces are seen as a source of future profit. Thus I think we will see in the next few years an all out attack on every aspect of public service provision.  Libertarians amoung you might cheer at this point. I think you will not cheer when you see what is going to replace what you currently dislike.

I believe the era of the Nation-State is coming to an end not because of attack from outside enemies but because Nation-States are being dismantled from the inside – by the  State itself.  But the State has no itention of losing power. It is simply changing jobs and employer. The big welfare state is being dismantled but in its place is going to come an even bigger and certainly more repressive Corporate State.

But the End of the Nation-State and the emergence of a global system of  Technocratic, Managed rather than democratic Corporate-States is a larger discussion I am still writing.

 

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